Quora Answer: If Hong Kong Declared Independence, Would China Invade Militarily?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “If Hong Kong declared independence, would China invade militarily?” 

There are a few assumptions here, and they are all mistaken. 

Firstly, Hong Kong is in no position to declare independence.  It has never been independent, it does not have an independent military force, and the previous British Administration was never interested in an independent Hong Kong, and never drew a road map for that eventuality.  For any territory to declare independence in the current era, it requires two things: a legal basis under international law, no matter how flimsy; and a state actor that would sponsor or guarantee it.  Hong Kong has neither.  Claims about human rights and freedom of speech are insufficient to claim independence. Hong Kong’s economy is so dependent on the Chinese hinterland, it cannot claim economic independence.  It has never had autonomy in foreign relations.  It does not even have a sufficiently distinct ethnic or linguistic identity from southern China.  Such is China’s position, there is no country that would sponsor Hong Kong’s independence claims.  Even the US cannot bear the political and economic cost of this.  Aside from its harbour, Hong Kong is not sufficiently strategic to an external state actor. 

Secondly, China does not need to invade Hong Kong.  Hong Kong is Chinese territory, and as an important port and major city, the PLA has a significant garrison, which is right next to the old governor’s mansion.  It is not a case of moving assets into the territory, when they are already there.  From a political perspective, a successful independence bid by Hong Kong would spell the end of the CCP.  The Communist Party cannot afford to lose credibility.  This would also signal to restive regions such as Tibet and Xinjiang, which are very much in the political and economic periphery, that the CCP does not have the political will to enforce hegemony, leading to a rise in civil disobedience, and eventual rebellion.  This will also embolden an actual independence movement in Taiwan.  China cannot countenance that.