22 March, 2020

Quora Answer: As a Police Officer, What is Something Small That Raises Your Suspicion?


It is very suspicious when people remember certain things in great detail without being able to explain why.  For example, if you ask the average person what they had for lunch yesterday, they would have to pause and think.  It is the same when you ask what they wore last week, or any random detail of an activity we take for granted.  Our brain does not deem these details important, and they are not immediately recalled.

When somebody is able to give a lot of specific details as a witness, I am immediately suspicious, because there is a likelihood that the story is rehearsed.  Most people do not have that sort of memory.  When we have several witnesses, and they all tend to get very minor details congruent, I would immediately investigate the relationship between them, and look for collusion.

Human witnesses for crimes are extremely unreliable.  They are a useful starting point to gather clues, and point us in the correct direction, but getting a human witness to stand up to cross examination is a great challenge, and often inadequate.  People’s recollection is notoriously unreliable.  When groups of people are able to corroborate specific details, it must be because the details are very significant, or they colluded.



Brief Observations on Club Growth

The following are some thoughts on club growth.  This is based solely on a years’ worth of club visiting, and speaking to members of clubs all over Singapore, both club officials and otherwise, and my preliminary observations as Area Director for A2.

Toastmasters clubs in Singapore generally fall under three categories: school, community centre and corporate.  There is not much to be said of school clubs, since they have their limitations based around the needs of academic performance.  As such, for members, they are a means to network, and grow personally.  Unless it is an alumni club, which functions more like an inclusive corporate club, the students leave after they graduate.  Thus, turnover is naturally high, and there is little scope for long-term strategic planning.

One of the problems I have noticed is this tendency to charter clubs with little concern over their long-term sustainability.  The focus of the incumbent is upon growth to achieve immediate milestones.  The problem then falls upon the successor to address the inherent weakness of such clubs.  I would propose that we adopt some sort of tracking for new clubs, with an emphasis on rewarding clubs that surpass the three-year mark.  We are not in a position to implement the finance industry’s guidelines on persistency, since the district officers change every year.  This naturally limits accountability.

Community Clubs
Community clubs are inclusive clubs, with a catchment that is geographically focused on the immediate neighbourhood.  As such, clubs tend to be diverse in make-up, vibrancy and sustainability.  The problem we have here is that clubs in proximity are cannibalising each other’s membership.  This helps no one.

For example, it is relatively common for people to help their friends by joining multiple clubs to fulfill the charter member numbers.  This creates zombie clubs, and is unsustainable.  The real fear is that people will become jaded and leave Toastmasters altogether.  There is far too much focus on recruitment, and not enough on retention.

What we need is for an area or division to work together to come up with a coherent marketing and branding strategy.  We need to raise awareness and credibility of Toastmasters clubs.  The idea is to raise membership relative to the population by one percentage point.  Toastmasters must be seen as prestigious, a form of corporate training that equips people for career mobility.  Currently, we only talk about it.  If we are able to integrate this into the community club programmes for skills retraining, this opens up an avenue to get funding for these clubs through work skills programmes.

Corporate Clubs
Corporate clubs have distinct challenges from community clubs.  In summary, they are at the mercy of management, and the market.  Too many vibrant clubs die when the executives of the company see no worth in the programme.  We must do more to address this, by speaking to the management itself, on behalf of the club, and get a buy in.

For example, AIA Toastmasters has management support to the extent that the CEO is himself a member, along with many members of the executive team.  This is because the successive Executive Committees of the club made presentations to them on the need to communicate effectively to advance corporate goals.  A such, management see Toastmasters as an integral part of internal training and allocate budget and support accordingly.  We need to explore how to replicate this in other clubs.

Management & Leadership Training
Whilst the tag line is “Where leaders are made”, there is actually no meaningful leadership or management training.  This is such a shame considering the number of people we have in the membership who are actually qualified and capable in this area.

I would propose that we show more initiative in programmes other than mere speeches.  We can consider panel discussions, which are already part of the level 5 project for Pathway.  For example, last term, I had two discussions to test out the format.

The first was about the ethics of judging contests, and how we can make it better.  I had past winners, chief judges, and relevant people on the panel, and tested the reaction of the crowd.  This was just after the contest season.

I had a second panel, of a more general nature, with the subject about having a vision for the club.  Based on the feedback, I realise that we have not been successful in translating what Toastmasters is about into actual measurable success in a member’s real-world application.  We need to look deeper into this and consider how we can be better.

Blue Ocean Club Growth
Toastmasters, as a programme, is ideal for one specific category of people: those who want to speak publicly for the express purpose of gaining recognition in work.  There is one category of organisations that are full of these people, and with the catchment and budget to sustain clubs: Volunteer Welfare Organisations.

People do not join Toastmasters simply because they want to speak well in public.  They want to be good speakers for specific personal agendas.  It can be as base as wanting to speak to someone they have a romantic interest in.  It can be as mundane as wanting to get ahead in their career.  People in VWOs want to impress enough people to run for public office.  This is the catchment of parliamentary hopefuls.

I have some ideas on which organisations we could speak to, and who to approach within these organisations.  I served on the board of one such organisation for 14 years, up to Vice-President.  Serving on the board grants people access to ministers and ministerial staff.  For them, public speaking is a need.  They have debate clubs, but they do not have clubs that teach actual rhetoric.

Conclusion
My belief is that we succeed together.  We must foster a culture of growth and idea sharing.  I am setting that example here, and opening myself to legitimate criticism so that these ideas can be refined.



20 March, 2020

Summary of the Coverage of COVID-19 under AIA Insurance Plans


The following is a summary of the extent of COVID-19 coverage by AIA insurance plans.

Death Benefit
All policies with death benefit will pay out in the event of death due to complications arising from COVID-19 infection.

Disability Income Benefit
Premier Disability Cover provides income coverage due to illness or injury.

Critical Illness Benefit
Critical illness plans and rider do not pay out for COVID-19 since it is not one of the listed critical illnesses in the plans.  However, the policy will pay out for any complications arising from COVID-19 infection which is under the listed critical illnesses.

Hospitalisation Benefit & Hospitalisation Income Benefit
All hospitalisation costs due to COVID-19 are covered.  Hospital Income and Hospital Income Special will pay out since these plans provide coverage for accidents, illnesses, and disease.  However, Platinum Health does not provide any coverage since the plan specifically excludes communicable diseases.

Pre-Natal Hospitalisation Benefit
Coverage for Baby Protect Plus (II) and Baby Assurance ( II) is extended to treatment of COVID-19 under “Other Infectious Diseases”, for the hospital care benefit for the child.

Accident Benefit
Personal accident plans have no coverage since this is a disease, not an accident.  However, coverage is extended to COVID-19 to Star Protect Plus under the list of diseases.

Travel Coverage
Around the World Plus does not cover places where there is a travel advisory for infection.




01st Quarter 2020 Market Outlook: Impact of Covid-19

The following is an assessment of the economic impact of Covid-19, for the 01st quarter of 2020.  This is the consideration of the market, and the impact on your investments, as well as possible opportunities.

We have to consider that because we have various combinations of inadequate enforcement of quarantine, testing, and healthcare in Europe, North America, and elsewhere, a lot of people will fall sick, and many will die.  This is a social consequence.  This is a human tragedy.  However, this is not how the market works, beyond market sentiment and consumer confidence.  There is still value in investing in the correct sectors of the correct economies.

We can confirm that since the coronavirus outbreak in early December 2019, in Wuhan, China, authorities from China have undertaken a number of measures to contain the pandemic.  Authorities in major developed economies in East Asia have been particularly successful in flattening the curve of infection spread.

Since then, the Coronavirus outbreak has spread globally beyond China, as new confirmed cases outside China exceeded those in China.  China has ceased to report new domestic cases.  All cases are imported.  The experience of Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan, who were early responders to the crisis is that we will gradually see imported cases outnumber domestic infections.

This is not the case in the new epicentres of infection: Europe and North America.  As such, the World Health Organisation  has officially declared this outbreak as a global pandemic, and there is a race between the containment measures implemented by governments and spread of the disease.

In response, global central banks stepped up their response, with the Federal Reserve cutting policy rates by 50 basis points in an unscheduled meeting with more action scheduled in the upcoming FOMC meeting.  The European Central Bank has launched an extra emergency bond-buying programme worth €750 billion (US$820 billion) to calm markets and protect the Euro-area economy struggling to cope with the coronavirus epidemic.  This has worked to calm the markets in Italy and Spain, viewed as most vulnerable.

We expect further such Keynesian measures to boost liquidity, through quantitative easing and cutting lending rates.  This is meant to prop up the sectors of the economy hit hardest by quarantine and depressed consumer demand.  The US government is proposing up to a trillion-dollar bailout, and similar measures are expected all over the world.  This will eventually boost the shares in the market.

That being said, I fully expect certain economies to go into a recession for the next 18 months at least, due to contraction.  This is not necessarily a bad thing.  It is an opportunity for structural changes in the global economies that will lead to more social welfare spending down the road.  This is especially so in countries facing elections in the next 18 months such as the US and Singapore.

One of the complications in the market is the oil shock brought about by a price war between OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, and Russia.  Both are pumping out crude, driving down prices and affecting futures markets.  This has caused oil prices to plummet 26%, to an 18-year low.  As such, other crude producers are having market shocks as well, further deepening the prospects of a recession.

The aim of the Saudis is to force other producers to heel by out-producing them, grabbing market share, and then raising prices again.  This playbook is out of the 1970s, and is inadequate in the current climate.  It will simply force shale producers to cut back, and they will raise production again when prices go up.  The Russians have the reserves to wait out the Saudis, since they are also a leading producer of natural gas.  Their economy is slightly more diversified.  Up to 80% of the Saudi economy is dependent on oil production.

The US has moved to calm the market.  Despite being the largest producer of crude in the world, they have pledged to buy 30 million barrels of crude, taking advantage of the low prices to stock up on their reserves.  This huge order gives a semblance of certainty to the market.

That all being said, the global economy is in the early stages of a recovery, lead by China opening her production lines once again.  Major financial centres in East Asia such as Singapore, Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Tokyo are in a better shape than Europe and North America.  They will continue to be the driving force for growth.  There has been a noticeable bottoming out of the market, and a slight upward trend as measures take effect and consumer confidence returns.

Based on the concerns pertaining to the pandemic and plummeting oil prices mentioned above, global stock markets have continued a sell down in the immediate last few weeks.  This is not necessarily a reflection of the underlying value of assets.  This is market sentiment and panic.  For example, on the 12th March 2020, the Dow Jones Industrial Average faced its biggest single day drop since 1987, entering into the bear market territory.  The resultant flight to safety pushed US Treasury bond prices to record levels, leaving yields at a historical low.  The 10-year US Treasury yield touched a record low of below 0.4%.

This drawdown of equities, and the fall in bond yields, have pushed the relative valuation to an attractive level, in favor of equities.  While downside risk to economy and equity markets cannot be ignored, the relative value of equities will prevail once the situation stabilises.  Hence, it is sensible to implement a dollar-cost-averaging approach to capture the long-term return potential of equity markets.  Areas to look at would be Asian manufacturing, healthcare, technology, and hospitality.

The current pandemic has created a demand for sanitisers, masks, healthcare and sanitary products, and home entertainment.  There is obvious value in healthcare and pharmaceuticals, and their stocks are relatively low.  Technology counters are attractive, especially when we consider the explosion in online retail, and its expansion into non-traditional products.  Hospitality is an interesting case.  Hotels are suffering now, but once the recovery from the pandemic is confirmed, I expect travel to explode again.  It makes sense to take advantage of the low equity prices to expand positions in favoured stocks and sectors, with an eye to an investment horizon of above 18 months.

For those who have the means, I see great merit in holding a higher-than-average cash balance to facilitate buying assets that are relatively cheaper when opportunities prevail.  This is the time to leverage that cash position into expanded market share.

In summary, global growth will likely experience a sharp slowdown for most of 2020.  We expect a recovery, but with significant delays.  Policy support could accelerate the process.  While there is danger of a major recession in specific major economies, it will be short.

Our immediate concerns in the coming months, is that further development of Covid-19, pertaining to its severity and duration will have an impact on both the demand and supply side, consumer confidence, and production and supply chain disruption.



03 March, 2020