Quora Answer: If China Wages Total War on Vietnam, the Philippines, & Malaysia over the South China Sea, Should Indonesia, as a Non-Claimant Get Involved?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “If China wages total war with Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia, over the South China Sea, should Indonesia, as a non-claimant, declare war on China?”

There are three assertions here, and all of them are incorrect.

Firstly, whilst Indonesia is not a direct claimant of any territory in the South China Sea, it is a claimant of an exclusive economic zone in an area it has renamed the North Natuna Sea.  These claims on an exclusive economic zone overlap with China’s.  This means Indonesia is a claimant.

Secondly, Indonesia, along with Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines, are all part of ASEAN.  Whilst ASEAN does not have a mutual defence treaty such as NATO does, an attack upon one member of ASEAN would drag the others in, including Singapore, the rest of Indochina, Myanmar, and Thailand.  The Philippines is a major part of the US sphere.  Malaysia is part of the FPDA which includes Singapore, the UK, Australia and New Zealand.  The US has a carrier refit base in Singapore.  Such a war will not be a regional war, but have consequences across the globe.

Finally, China does not have the ability to wage total war in the South China Sea.  Total war means that the entire economy is converted to military production.  China is a large country, with the second-largest economy in the world.  However, considering debt to GDP ratio at over 300%, they cannot afford total war.

China also does not have a surface navy large enough to wage war in the vast area of the South China Sea, and still deter potential belligerents, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan in the East China Sea.  Having long borders and massive territorial claims means that even a military the size of the PLA cannot enforce them.  China’s military is also in a modernisation phase.  They do not have the force projection capability to fight a war on distant lands, across the sea.  China also does not have the lift capability to support an expeditionary force away from the Chinese mainland.