Quora Answer: How Do the Hong Kong Protests Affect Elections in Singapore in September?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “How could the HK protests affect the elections in Singapore, in September, since the vast majority of Singaporeans support them?”

There are no elections in Singapore, in September.  The electoral boundaries review committee was only formed at the beginning of September 2019.  This is the signal for all political parties to prepare for a general election.  However, it will still be months away.

The People’s Action Party is nothing, if not, consistent.  They seldom deviate from what works.  As such, we will likely see the ruling party introduce prospective candidates to the general public.  This would be a period of two or three months.  They will then reveal a budget that will give something back to the electorate.  This would mean any price increases such the PTC proposal to increase fares by up to 7% may be put on hold, or introduced early to be drowned out by the news cycle.  Likewise, the expected GST increase will also be on hold until after the PAP get a new mandate.

There is not likely for there to be any election before the new budget, in April 2020.  Otherwise, the new parliament, and Cabinet, would be pressed for time to get that budget up.  It makes more sense for the current parliament to pass the budget, and address concerns now, before it is dissolved.  This means we are looking at a timeline of around May 2020.

The protests in Hong Kong are not likely to affect the political landscape in Singapore.  We do not have such a vast disparity in standard of living that is found in Hong Kong.  There are controls on the prices of property, and schemes, to ensure that Singaporeans can continue to own flats.  This is a political strategy formulated in the earliest days of Singapore.  Singaporeans who own their own houses are more likely to be committed to national development.

In Hong Kong, the prices of property is out of reach for the masses.  Rents are ridiculously high, with property developers prioritising profits, instead of affordability.  The people are disenfranchised, they have no ownership of the neighbourhoods, and infrastructure.  This is why they are tearing down road signs and traffic lights, vandalising the train stations, and occupying the airport.  The do not feel that they have a part in their profits, and growth, since little of it benefits them.  This is a lesson in nation building that Singapore has been aware of since its independence.

Hong Kong is not a nation, and there have been no efforts at nation building, either by the current administration, or by the British before them.  It is a port competing against ports in the Pearl River delta, and losing ground.  It is a financial centre slowly losing to Singapore and Shanghai, in the region.  It is a tourist destination inundated with Mainland Chinese that the people of Hong Kong view as competitors.  There is a structural imbalance in the economy, and these protests are a consequence of that shortsightedness.

I cannot speak for the survey of Singaporeans, although I am quite doubtful of the results.  By and large, Singaporeans have some sympathy for the suffering of the people of Hong Kong that lead to this.  We empathise with the loss of stature, and hope.  But we do not condone the violence, and the vandalism.  That is not part of our national identity.  It would be inconceivable for us to start tearing down our own signage, vandalise our MRT, or worse, start singing the American and British anthem, inviting them in.  That is naïve.  The United States is not going to start a world war with China over a declining port city across the Pacific.  The fact that Hong Kong youth are asking Donald Trump to save them is pathetic.  As the violence continues, more Singaporeans would lose sympathy.  We are practical people.