AIA Toastmasters Club’s First NFNF of the Term, 28th July 2022: When Three Speeches Turn into One Theme by Accident

On 28^th July 2022, AIA Toastmasters held its first NFNF meeting for the term.  Linda Lee served as Toastmaster of the Day.  Sandra Phua served as Table Topics Master.  Amos Yio Zhi Yan served as Ah Counter.  Rominia Leonard served as Creative Director of the Day.  Ariel Wu served as Photographer.  Eric Tan, Maria Abraham, and Eileen Chan delivered the speeches.  Frances Goh, Landly Sudjana, and I served as Project Evaluators.  Eric Tan, DTM, delivered the workshop.

Three Speeches, One Accidental Theme

Three speakers, without coordinating beforehand, all spoke about family.  Eric Tan spoke about his struggles with gambling when he was much younger, and how, with the support of family and friends, he overcame it, an emotionally difficult account of psychological turmoil met by the eventual triumph of family support.  That account is not merely a personal victory.  Research on gambling recovery estimates that only around 8% of people meeting the criteria for compulsive gambling ever seek formal treatment at all, and roughly one-third of those who do achieve long-term recovery, with family involvement consistently identified as a factor that meaningfully improves the odds.  Standing up and naming that struggle in front of a room, rather than carrying it privately, is itself a documented act of the kind that improves outcomes, not merely a brave anecdote.

Maria Abraham gave an amusing account of negotiating with her father about getting married when she was still young, a paradigm shift on the assigned project, Negotiate the Best Outcome.  Eileen Chan offered another perspective on the theme of dealing with addiction, this time as the spouse, speaking on the values of co-parenting and how to approach it properly when a family has already been tested by exactly the struggle Eric Tan described from the other side of it.

Part of speaking is having the courage to share pieces of ourselves, so that we can connect to the audience.  We are all part of that river of humanity, making its way through the canyons of time, until we meet that ocean of humanity.  It is our celebration of triumph, our commemoration of loss, and our understanding that we are all part of something greater than ourselves.

The Workshop

Eric Tan, DTM, gave a short workshop on evaluation ahead of the club’s Speech Evaluation and Table Topics contests, scheduled for 11^th August.  His workshop, “Evaluate to Elevate,” covered the intent of an evaluation and its application both within a Toastmasters context and a professional one, with twenty minutes of tips, concepts, and advice delivered by a serial contest winner for speech evaluation at club, Area, and Division level, who has also represented the club at District level.

Attendance and Celebrations

Attendance exceeded 20 despite the meeting running as an afternoon lunch event, with three non-Toastmaster guests present.  One has since joined the club.  The other two remain in process.  The club also marked birthdays for members born this month: Cindy Gan, Heny Chen, and Shirley Chia.

The Results

Best Project Speaker went to Maria Abraham.  Best Project Evaluator went to me.  Best Table Topics Speaker went to Reuel Sim.

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Terence Nunis, DTM | Division Advisor, District 80 Division M | Club Advisor, AIA Toastmasters | Past President & Founder, Awesome Toastmasters

Economic Insights for July 2022

The following are some economic insights for July 2022.  Headline inflation ticked up in most countries in May.  Central banks have been aggressively increasing their key interest rates to try to bring inflation under control.  A strong majority in the market expects the Federal Reserve to increase the magnitude of rate hikes by perhaps +75bps in the next meeting, to reach neutral levels as early as end-July (2.50%), and possibly higher than neutral (3.75%) by end 2023. 

The European Central Bank hinted at an increase in policy rates of about 200bp by the end of the year.  A broad tightening of monetary conditions, along with tighter fiscal policies, is fueling fears of recession within the next 12 to 18 months.  However, central banks’ policy stance will likely soften once policy rates reach restrictive territory, reducing the odds of a severe recession. 

China’s economy showed further signs of improvement in June with a strong pickup in services and construction, as Covid outbreaks and restrictions were gradually eased.  Eased lockdown measures should support growth in the near term.  China remains an outlier in a world of surging inflation, with further selective policy easing - monetary and, more importantly, fiscal. 

Asset allocation decision remains one of the largest drivers when determining the range of portfolio outcomes amid volatile markets.  Major central banks are aggressively tightening monetary policy, bond yields have increased sharply, and most asset prices are down.  With US Treasury yields at levels not seen in more than a decade and the potential increasing risk of a global recession, major funds have dialled down equities to a small underweight with a moderate allocation to cash to serve as dry powder. 

It is expected that most funds will reduce equities to a small underweight after a sharp rise in US Federal Reserve interest rates and an increased risk of a US recession.  Earnings expectations will likely decline due to higher inflationary pressures.  Valuations are also unlikely to rise in an economic slowdown. 

Regarding equities, across markets, it is advised to maintain a moderate overweight to Asia ex-Japan equities, primarily driven by the relatively positive outlook in China.  The region remains at attractive valuations, even after its recent rise. 

Regarding investment-grade credit, credit spreads have widened meaningfully year to date.  However, against their own histories, spread moves remain relatively modest given that the default and downgrade cycles have been gentle.  It is preferable to have a shorter duration to prepare for further hawkish surprises from the Federal Reserve.  It is also advisable to retain preference for Asian credit over US credit as the Asia ex-Japan spreads should be more resilient despite the decline in spread premium over the US. 

Regarding Treasuries, the Federal Reserve’s pivot towards aggressively fighting inflation has caused bond yields to increase sharply.  Short rates have been moving upward more quickly than the long end, causing the yield curve to flatten materially even though economic fundamentals remain robust in the near term.  It is expected that higher rates, volatility and weaker price performance will continue over the medium horizon.

AIA’s 2022 Participating Fund Bonus: Stability You Can Rely On, Even in a Turbulent Year

This commentary is about the performance of the Participating Fund, as well as bonuses and dividends allocated to policies for the accounting period ending 31^st December 2021, which were recommended by the Appointed Actuary and approved by the AIA Board of Directors.  Annual bonuses and dividends were sent to client policies at the policy anniversary from 1^st July 2022.  Terminal bonus and dividend rates, if applicable to the policy, applied from 1^st July 2022 onwards.

Key Statistics of the Participating Fund, 2021

Bonuses and dividends declared: S$548 million.  Investment returns: 1.9% overall in Singapore Dollars, 4.0% overall in US Dollars, and 0.2% overall in Australian Dollars.  Total assets as of 31st December 2021: S$30,642 million.  Total expense ratio: 1.4%.  Total benefits paid: S$1,216 million, a substantial, ongoing return of value to policyholders regardless of short-term market noise.

Insurance claims and expenses were in line with company expectations in 2021, meaning the fund’s core operations performed precisely as planned, with no unwelcome surprises weighing on results.  Short-term fluctuations of non-investment performance, of which insurance claims and expenses are key factors, are not expected to significantly affect future bonuses.

The Year in Context

The global economy continued its spirited recovery in the first half of 2021, driven by accommodative monetary and fiscal policies designed to introduce financial liquidity and stability, limiting the social and financial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.  This was at the back of buoyant economic data as countries worked to return to normal by dialling back border restrictions and controls.  Sentiments of a complete recovery to pre-pandemic levels moderated in the latter half of 2021 as the world grappled with a resurgence of COVID-19 variants, leading to renewed restrictions.  There were pressures on global supply chains as demand rose while economies emerged stronger post-vaccination, and key manufacturing locations struggled with reduced labour productivity amid escalating input costs.  As inflation concerns flared with higher energy and raw material costs rippling through the economy, several central banks acknowledged the scale and longevity of inflationary pressures, and the US Federal Reserve declared its intention for several interest rate hikes, a stark contrast to its previous policy stance.

Global equity markets continued to climb higher in 2021 on the back of stronger economic resilience and robust corporate earnings, with the S&P 500 Index ending near record levels.  Overall, investment performance was positive in 2021, navigating uncertainty and volatility that are likely to remain a feature of markets going forward.

Why Steady Bonuses Matter More Than a Single Year’s Return

As of 31^st December 2021, the market value of total Participating Fund assets was S$30,642 million, supporting Singapore Dollar, US Dollar, and Australian Dollar plans, with an asset strategy tailored to the currency of each.  Unlike a pure investment account fully exposed to whatever the market delivers in any given twelve months, a participating policy is engineered to smooth returns across decades, precisely so a policyholder never has to absorb the full force of a single volatile year, or watch bonuses evaporate the moment markets wobble.  AIA tries to provide stable returns over the life of a participating policy by adopting the smoothing concept, spreading profits and losses across the life of clients’ plans.  If Participating Fund performance is particularly strong in one year, a portion of the earnings may be held back specifically to maintain bonuses in years when performance is weaker, protecting policyholders through the kind of turbulence 2021 and early 2022 delivered.

Facing 2022 with Discipline, Not Retreat

2021 was a challenging year filled with momentous events carrying global repercussions.  These headwinds persisted into 2022, with the Russia-Ukraine conflict spiralling in the first quarter, adding further pressure to a fragile global recovery, generating an adverse supply shock for energy, agriculture, and fertilisers, and raising the risk of further inflationary consequences.  AIA’s response to that environment was not retreat.  It was to increase bonus rates for some policies while holding others steady, focusing on quality assets with durable structural growth drivers, strengthening portfolio resilience, and working to deliver sustainable long-term investment returns across different economic regimes.

Bonuses or dividends allocated for a policy depend on the performance of the plan it belongs to, based on past and projected future investment returns, and past and projected future experience, including claims, surrenders, and expenses.  Any changes to bonus or dividend rates for a plan apply to all policies within that plan.  The Participating Fund achieves diversification across fixed income securities, listed equities, private equities, properties and property funds, with roughly 36% of the portfolio held in growth-oriented risk assets as of end-2021, and the majority held in lower-risk fixed income, a deliberate balance between long-term growth and the security policyholders signed up for.

Alignment between AIA and Its Policyholders

Based on regulatory requirements, the ratio of bonuses given to policyholders against the maximum amount AIA shareholders can receive from the Participating Fund is fixed at 9:1, for every S$9 given to policyholders, S$1 can be given to shareholders.  This means AIA’s own shareholders only benefit when policyholders do, giving the company a direct, built-in incentive to manage the fund conservatively and in policyholders’ long-term interest.  Our aim is for the long-term cost of smoothing to be broadly neutral across generations of policy owners, ensuring fairness between clients who joined decades ago and those joining today.

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Terence Nunis | Executive Chairman, Equinox Zenith | Author, The 1% Playbook: The Billionaire Cheat Code

AIA Toastmasters Club’s 19th Executive Committee Installation: Leadership Changes Hands, Standards Do Not

On the 14^th July 2022, AIA Toastmasters Club held its 19^th Executive Committee Installation, drawing 120 attendees, including Chief Executive Officer Wong Sze Keed and Head, Centre of Business Excellence, Tied Distribution, Edwin Cheng.  An installation of this scale, with senior AIA leadership physically present rather than sending a token video message, signals something most clubs never achieve: genuine corporate recognition that a Toastmasters programme is contributing to the business, not merely occupying a lunch hour once a month.

The Appointment Holders

Adeline Ng, VC5, of the Toastmasters Club of Singapore, served as Guest Speaker.  John Sih, DTM, of Breakthrough Toastmasters Club, served as Language Evaluator.  Mach Dayrit, PI3, of AIA Toastmasters Club, and Regine Sim Lee Ching, DL2, of Pasir Ris Elias Toastmasters Club, served jointly as Toastmasters of the Day.  Iris Lim served as Table Topics Master.  Zhuo Shu Zhen served as Sergeant-at-Arms.  Ariel Wu served as Timer.  Eileen Chan, Linda Lee, MS1, Rominia Sarte, PI1, Shirley ChiaLi, DL1, and Zhuo Shu Zhen, DTM, served jointly as Creative Directors of the Day, a five-person creative team that says something about how seriously this club treats an installation ceremony's production value.  Jeffrey Lim served as Photographer.

The Awards

Linda Lee, MS1, received Club Toastmaster of the Year.  Mach Dayrit, PI3, received Recruiter of the Year.  Rominia Sarte, PI1, received Newcomer Toastmaster of the Year.  Special recognition went to the club’s mentors and advisors: Eric Tan, DTM; Linda Lee, MS1; Terence Nunis, DTM; and Zhuo Shu Zhen, DTM.

The Transition

Frances Goh, PI4, President for 2021 to 2022, was discharged alongside Vice-President, Education, Kiki Tai, MS3; Vice-President, Membership, Mach Dayrit, PI3; Vice-President, Public Relations, Shirley Chia, DL2; Secretary Sandra Phua, PM1; Treasurer Maria Abraham, DL1; Sergeant-at-Arms Chng Pia Kim, EC2; and Immediate Past President Terence Nunis, DTM.

The 2022 to 2023 Executive Committee was installed in their place.  Sandra Phua, PM1, moved from Secretary to President.  Kevin Lim, MS1, took Vice-President Education.  Eric Tan took Vice-President Membership.  Rominia Sarte, PI1, moved from Newcomer Toastmaster of the Year to Vice-President, Public Relations within the same ceremony, a genuinely fast trajectory from new member to committee officer.  Chng Pia Kim, EC2, moved from Sergeant-at-Arms to Secretary.  Amos Yio took Sergeant-at-Arms.  Frances Goh, PI4, remained on as Immediate Past President, ensuring institutional continuity rather than a clean break, severing the incoming committee from the outgoing one’s accumulated judgement.

The CEO’s Remarks

Wong Sze Keed spoke of her pride in club membership, and set the committee a specific, unambiguous challenge: increase membership exponentially.  A CEO who sets a Toastmasters club a growth target with the same directness she would apply to a sales division is not treating the club as a soft perk.  She is treating it as a pipeline for the communication capability the wider organisation actually needs.

The Word of the Day, & a Winning Speech Previewed

John Sih, DTM, set the word of the day as “valiant,” delivered with the kind of entertaining precision that has cemented his reputation as one of the strongest language evaluators in the District.  Adeline Ng, VC5, District International Speech Champion for 2021 to 2022, gave the room an early preview of her winning speech, a story of confronting fear personified as a bear, and conquering what holds a person back.  Toastmasters International’s own World Championship of Public Speaking draws over 30,000 entrants annually across more than 100 countries, narrowed through club, area, division, and district rounds to a mere handful of finalists.  A District Champion standing in this room, rehearsing the exact speech that will carry her toward that global stage, was not a courtesy appearance.  It was a preview of genuine competitive credibility, on display before the club that will be able to say, years from now, that it watched the speech first.

The Table Topics

Wekie Tay, DTM, of NUS Toastmasters Club and Telok Blangah Toastmasters Club; Julie Ong, DTM, of Leng Kee Advanced Toastmasters Club; Hyder Taufik, PM2, of Tampines Changkat Toastmasters Club; and Zeph Teo, PM2, also of Tampines Changkat Toastmasters Club, took the floor for Table Topics.  Hyder Taufik, PM2, won the segment.

Closing

AIA Toastmasters Club recorded its gratitude to AIA Singapore and to Toastmasters District 80 for their continued support.  A 19^th installation is not a milestone many clubs reach with this much institutional weight still standing behind it.  Executive committees change every year by design.  What should not change, and evidently has not, is a club capable of drawing its own CEO into the room to set the next committee’s target in person.

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Terence Nunis | Executive Chairman, Equinox Zenith | Author, The 1% Playbook: The Billionaire Cheat Code