Quora Answer: Would the USA Respond with Military Might Should China Invade Hong Kong?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Would the USA really respond with military might should China invade Hong Kong in the near future?”

Hong Kong is a part of China.  China cannot invade itself.  Hong Kong has limited self-governance, but it is not an independent sovereign entity.  China already has troops based in Hong Kong, quartered near the old governor’s residence.

The US has no legal justification to invade Hong Kong, since that would be invading Chinese sovereign territory.  I cannot see any scenario where that would end well.  China is a near peer adversary with territorial advantage.  The US has to secure a thousand-mile logistics supply line from bases in South Korea and Japan, bases well within reach of China’s tactical missile envelope.

Quora Answer: Why Do Companies Move Regional Headquarters from Hong Kong to Singapore, Not Taiwan?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Why do companies move regional headquarters from Hong Kong to Singapore, but not Taiwan?”

In the ease of doing business and competitiveness index, Singapore ranks a lot higher than Taiwan.  Taiwan used to be one of the Four Asian Tigers, with Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea, but lost its way in the last decade or so, through bad policies, factional politics, and increasing diplomatic isolation.

Secondly, companies consider costs, and Singapore has a lower tax rate than Taiwan for companies and individuals.  Taiwan’s corporate tax is higher, and although it does not have a separate capital gains tax, it is factored into the income tax.  Singapore does not have a capital gains tax, separate or integrated.  Taiwan does have a lower VAT, at 5%, compared to Singapore’s 7% GST.  However, this is a consumption tax, and the cost can be passed on.

Finally, Taiwan has a difficult relationship with China, and businesses want access to the Chinese market.  Singapore has no such encumbrance, being a wholly sovereign nation, instead of a renegade province.  This means Singapore has better access to international banking networks, making it easier to move funds into and out of China.  FDI from China may be problematic.

Quora Answer: How Proficient is Singapore’s English Grammar Compared to Hong Kong?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Singapore claims English as the national language.  How proficient is their English grammar compared to Hong Kong?”

The national language of Singapore is Malay, which is clearly stated in the Constitution.  It is not English.  Singapore also has three official languages in addition to the national language: English, Mandarin, and Tamil.

When you are dealing with the academic, political and business elite, the standard of English is excellent.  English is the default language of business and governance.  It used to be the same in Hong Kong, and for large sections, it is still true.  However, since the return to China, in 1997, there has been a gradual emphasis on Mandarin, and Mandarin proficiency has risen, even at the expense of Cantonese.

Language proficiency is determined by economic and political realities.  If tomorrow, Singapore could make more money by knowing Swahili, within a generation, many of us would be proficient at it.

Quora Answer: Why Do Singaporeans Believe That Using English is Essential for Their Economic Survival?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Why do Singaporeans believe that using English is essential for their economic survival when several Asian countries, such as Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, have achieved economic success without using English?”

The comparisons are not valid.  Singapore is a multicultural nation, and has been so even before independence.  If we did not have English as the language of business and governance, it would not have survived the racial tensions, since language is a sensitive matter.  None of the main racial groups would countenance the promotion of any one language over theirs.  In contrast, all the other nations and territories cited are culturally homogeneous.  They do not have multiple languages contending with each other for supremacy.

Secondly, Singapore is a trading nation, more so than any of the others mentioned, barring Hong Kong.  English is also widely spoken in Hong Kong.  English is the language of international trade.  All major centres of international trade have people who are competent in English, and English is the language of transactions, including correspondence and documentation.  Without English, we would not have that economic success because, unlike Japan and South Korea, we do not have a population base sufficient to generate growth by itself.  We are not a manufacturing hub.  We are not an agricultural nation.  We are net importers, and we generate our wealth in the entrepôt trade.

Quora Answer: Why Do Foreign Journalists Often Paint an Overly Rosy Picture of Singapore?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Why do foreign journalists often paint an overly rosy picture of Singapore - when in reality many places in Singapore have less than ideal conditions as well?”

Cited article; Singapore Trades Freedoms for a Liveable City; Hong Kong is Trading Its Freedoms for Nothing.

Based on the report, and the slant of your question, it appears you came to a conclusion based on your limited experience and expect others to believe the same.  Firstly, what is this ideal you are talking about?  An “ideal”, by its very definition, is essentially a vision or projection of perfection we can never arrive at.  It is something we aim for.  There is no such thing as perfection.  As such, the premise of the question is illogical.

Secondly, the journalist is comparing our public housing with Hong Kong’s.  I have been to Hong Kong many times, and what he says is true and apparent to anybody who has visited both places.  I have seen public housing all over the world, from the US to the UK to even apartments in Japan.  What we have is among the best in the world, and rightly so.  It took a generation of sacrifice and investment to get there.

The problem we have with Singaporeans, especially the younger generation, is that they are whiny, entitled and unrealistic.  Most of them have not seen enough the world beyond their tour in the tourist spots.  They have not taken a look at the consequences of public policy elsewhere.  They have not considered the specific realities of the various countries.  But they complain, and complain, like spoilt children about everything.

It is true that there are areas of improvement.  It is true that some of our people in government are morons in their ivory towers.  It is true that there are challenges for the future.  These can all be overcome.  We are still way ahead of almost every country in the world in the areas that matter: housing, healthcare and education.

Quora Answer: Why is Malaysia’s GDP Stronger than Hong Kong’s & Singapore’s?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Why is Malaysia’s GDP stronger than Hong Kong’s and Singapore’s?”

Gross Domestic Product is the measure of all the goods and services a country or territory produces.  The larger the population of the country, the larger the GDP is supposed to be.  By itself, it is not particularly useful.  The nominal GDP does not take into account inflationary pressure, currency risk, and relative cost of living.  What you really need to look at is the GDP per capita, at purchasing power parity.  This is the cost of goods and services produced divided by the population.  This gives an indicator of productivity. Going by that list, Singapore is in the top 5, Hong Kong is in the top 10, and Malaysia is far down that list in the top 50.

Quora Answer: Why Does Singapore Look Much Cleaner Than Hong Kong?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Why does Singapore look so much cleaner and well-kept than Hong Kong?”

Because it is. The laws against littering are stricter in Singapore, and being a compact city state, more rigorously enforced. This is not a criticism of Hong Kong.  We must understand that Hong Kong is larger than Singapore, spread over a wider area of diverse geographic features in a more challenging sociopolitical environment.  They do well enough as it is.

Singapore is far more compact, with an authoritarian government in a strong political position which allows for greater scope in planning with regards urban development.  There is a Land Acquisition Act, which allows the government to get rid of buildings that are deemed against the public good.  Development works have a strict timeline, and should a contractor run out of money, that land is either taken back to be retendered out, or another contractor is brought in.

Quora Answer: If Hong Kong Declared Independence, Would China Invade Militarily?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “If Hong Kong declared independence, would China invade militarily?” 

There are a few assumptions here, and they are all mistaken. 

Firstly, Hong Kong is in no position to declare independence.  It has never been independent, it does not have an independent military force, and the previous British Administration was never interested in an independent Hong Kong, and never drew a road map for that eventuality.  For any territory to declare independence in the current era, it requires two things: a legal basis under international law, no matter how flimsy; and a state actor that would sponsor or guarantee it.  Hong Kong has neither.  Claims about human rights and freedom of speech are insufficient to claim independence. Hong Kong’s economy is so dependent on the Chinese hinterland, it cannot claim economic independence.  It has never had autonomy in foreign relations.  It does not even have a sufficiently distinct ethnic or linguistic identity from southern China.  Such is China’s position, there is no country that would sponsor Hong Kong’s independence claims.  Even the US cannot bear the political and economic cost of this.  Aside from its harbour, Hong Kong is not sufficiently strategic to an external state actor. 

Secondly, China does not need to invade Hong Kong.  Hong Kong is Chinese territory, and as an important port and major city, the PLA has a significant garrison, which is right next to the old governor’s mansion.  It is not a case of moving assets into the territory, when they are already there.  From a political perspective, a successful independence bid by Hong Kong would spell the end of the CCP.  The Communist Party cannot afford to lose credibility.  This would also signal to restive regions such as Tibet and Xinjiang, which are very much in the political and economic periphery, that the CCP does not have the political will to enforce hegemony, leading to a rise in civil disobedience, and eventual rebellion.  This will also embolden an actual independence movement in Taiwan.  China cannot countenance that.

Quora Answer: How Do the Hong Kong Protests Affect Elections in Singapore in September?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “How could the HK protests affect the elections in Singapore, in September, since the vast majority of Singaporeans support them?”

There are no elections in Singapore, in September.  The electoral boundaries review committee was only formed at the beginning of September 2019.  This is the signal for all political parties to prepare for a general election.  However, it will still be months away.

The People’s Action Party is nothing, if not, consistent.  They seldom deviate from what works.  As such, we will likely see the ruling party introduce prospective candidates to the general public.  This would be a period of two or three months.  They will then reveal a budget that will give something back to the electorate.  This would mean any price increases such the PTC proposal to increase fares by up to 7% may be put on hold, or introduced early to be drowned out by the news cycle.  Likewise, the expected GST increase will also be on hold until after the PAP get a new mandate.

There is not likely for there to be any election before the new budget, in April 2020.  Otherwise, the new parliament, and Cabinet, would be pressed for time to get that budget up.  It makes more sense for the current parliament to pass the budget, and address concerns now, before it is dissolved.  This means we are looking at a timeline of around May 2020.

The protests in Hong Kong are not likely to affect the political landscape in Singapore.  We do not have such a vast disparity in standard of living that is found in Hong Kong.  There are controls on the prices of property, and schemes, to ensure that Singaporeans can continue to own flats.  This is a political strategy formulated in the earliest days of Singapore.  Singaporeans who own their own houses are more likely to be committed to national development.

In Hong Kong, the prices of property is out of reach for the masses.  Rents are ridiculously high, with property developers prioritising profits, instead of affordability.  The people are disenfranchised, they have no ownership of the neighbourhoods, and infrastructure.  This is why they are tearing down road signs and traffic lights, vandalising the train stations, and occupying the airport.  The do not feel that they have a part in their profits, and growth, since little of it benefits them.  This is a lesson in nation building that Singapore has been aware of since its independence.

Hong Kong is not a nation, and there have been no efforts at nation building, either by the current administration, or by the British before them.  It is a port competing against ports in the Pearl River delta, and losing ground.  It is a financial centre slowly losing to Singapore and Shanghai, in the region.  It is a tourist destination inundated with Mainland Chinese that the people of Hong Kong view as competitors.  There is a structural imbalance in the economy, and these protests are a consequence of that shortsightedness.

I cannot speak for the survey of Singaporeans, although I am quite doubtful of the results.  By and large, Singaporeans have some sympathy for the suffering of the people of Hong Kong that lead to this.  We empathise with the loss of stature, and hope.  But we do not condone the violence, and the vandalism.  That is not part of our national identity.  It would be inconceivable for us to start tearing down our own signage, vandalise our MRT, or worse, start singing the American and British anthem, inviting them in.  That is naïve.  The United States is not going to start a world war with China over a declining port city across the Pacific.  The fact that Hong Kong youth are asking Donald Trump to save them is pathetic.  As the violence continues, more Singaporeans would lose sympathy.  We are practical people.

Quora Answer: Do You Think It Sensible for the Hong Kong Protesters to Appeal to Donald John Trump for Help

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Do you think it is sensible for Hong Kong protesters to appeal to Donald John Trump for help?” 

The leaders of the Hong Kong protesters, such as Joshua Wong Chi Fung, have not shown themselves to be fully cognisant of what they are demanding, and the consequences.  We have to acknowledge that there are legitimate reasons for the people to be angry, and protest.  They include a lack of affordable housing, constrained economic opportunities, and low social mobility.  However, here are the five demands: withdrawal of the extradition bill, an independent probe into the use of force by police; amnesty for arrested protesters; a halt to categorising the protests as riots; and the implementation of universal suffrage.  None of these demands actually address the underlying issues.  These people are idiots. 

The Hong Kong government has bowed to demands, and withdrawn the extradition bill from parliamentary debate unconditionally.  That should have been seen as the start of negotiations.  It would have allowed both sides to save some dignity, and not put Beijing into a corner.  They could have then demanded more consultation, and taken the discussions behind closed doors so that compromises may be hammered out. 

What the protestors essentially want is de facto independence, and they are never going to get that.  Should Beijing be seen to be weak on this, it would undermine the CCP’s central authority, and create problems elsewhere.  It would also undermine Beijing’s negotiating position with the US in the midst of a trade war, since China would be viewed as vulnerable to pressure.  It will only invite more political pressure in other regions, and areas. 

These young people’s appeal to Donald John Trump undermines their cause in China proper, and has effectively precluded any form of sympathy by Chinese officials.  They have turned this into an issue of sovereignty, and national pride.  Considering China’s history with foreign powers, these people have set themselves up to fail, since no protest movement can continue without a practical end goal, and sympathy within the establishment, or a near-equal power. 

In the case of Hong Kong, there is no contending power that will interfere, since that would be contrary to their national interest.  The United States is not in a position to exert any pressure on China in any sphere.  In terms of trade and business interests, the adoption of a nationalistic, confrontational approach by the Trump administration has already precluded this.  China has more cards to play than the US in the current trade war.  In terms of politics, the US has virtually no direct foreign policy influence in China, again due to their confrontational approach to China.  The US has no viable option for military intervention in Hong Kong either.  I cannot see even an administration as stupid as a Trump presidency, risking a major regional conflict so some young people can pretend they understand “freedom”, and “democracy”. 

What is likely to happen is that the protests spiral out of control into escalating violence, until public opinion is significantly turned against them, and the authorities will start mass arrests.  The violence is destroying the city’s standing as a financial centre.  The economy is sliding into recession, businesses are closing, and people are being laid off.  This will gradually turn them against these rioters.  The Hong Kong police force will be given greater powers over the next few weeks, and people will be picked up.  The US Congress will have debates, propose sanctions, and be ultimately distracted by the impeachment proceedings.  The US is not going to meaningfully intervene.

Quora Answer: Can Singaporeans Protest What Hong Kong People are Doing?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Can Singaporeans protest what the Hong Kong people are doing?”

What exactly are we going to protest about?  To support the rioters?  Or, to support the government there?  Whatever is happening in Hong Kong is an internal matter.  It has no bearing on Singapore, and we have no real relationship with them beyond business.

In fact, the unrest in Hong Kong is a business opportunity, and Singapore has benefited tremendously from the capital flight, the shift in business, and the movement of high net worth individual to Singapore.  Why would we overly concerned about events all the way there?

Assuming Singaporeans were inclined to protest, they would need to apply for a permit, which will almost certainly not be approved.  Protesters will be rounded up, and charged with an offence.  Unlike in Hong Kong, rioting will not be tolerated.  The Gurkha Contingent, and the SOC will be deployed, and the rioters contained before being rounded up.  They will be identified through surveillance, and picked up at their homes.  Singapore learned lessons from the Little India riots in 2013.