Quora Answer: Why is Singapore Able to Manufacture Weapons While Its Neighbours Have to Import Them?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Why is Singapore able to make its own weapons while its neighbours have to import them?”

This is not true.  ASEAN nations have always been cognisant of the fact that they have been too reliant on arms purchases.  During the Konfrontasi, Sweden’s Bofors AB halted deliveries of armaments.  This highlighted the vulnerability of depending on external suppliers for everything.  Currently, ASEAN nations are wary of Chinese claims in the South China Sea.  China has territorial disputes with the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Brunei.  This is the incentive for them to modernise, and build up an indigenous defence capability.

Indonesia has a wide variety of programmes, from an indigenous radar system, to new patrol craft, to a proposed transport aircraft better able to land and take-off on rough island airstrips.  Malaysia is collaborating with the French to develop and deploy coastal aircraft.  Thailand is looking to develop an indigenous naval air wing.  Vietnam is looking at upgrading their logistics and avionics capabilities.  Aside from Brunei, Cambodia, and Laos; every member of ASEAN is in some form of major military build-up, whether it is force modernisation, weapons upgrading, or systems development.  And they are all developing, or have developed, some indigenous weapons systems.

Singapore is slightly different in that it is not in a modernisation phase.  Its military is in a doctrine development and integration of next generation technologies.  That is what being wealthy affords us.  Singapore is one of the largest arms exporters in the world for small arms and small-ticket items.  On some reports, we are the fourth-largest weapons exporter in the world, which is no mean feat considering the size of every other country on that list.  Singapore does not primarily develop weapons because we are in need of them, being the most militarised state in the region.  Singapore develops weapons because it is an industry that is also geared for export.  It is a means to generate economic growth.  Comparing Singapore’s arms industry to Malaysia, for example, is as misleading as comparing Malaysia’s car industry to ours.  They choose to sell passenger cars.  We sell infantry fighting vehicles.  Different industry focus, different market.

Quora Answer: Who Will Win a Naval War between the Philippines & Japan?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Who will win a naval war between the Philippines and Japan?”

In the 1960s, the Philippines was the naval power of East Asia.  The Philippines military, including its navy, was among the very first nations to deploy troops during the Korean War.  Filipino soldiers, many of them veterans of World War II, fought with distinction.  This was despite them having an insurgency back home.  After the end of the Korean War, the Philippines was instrumental in the setting up of the Republic of Korea’s navy, including training many of its officers, and setting up the maritime interdiction doctrine.  They have a proud history of more than 120 years.

However, mismanagement of the economy and lack of investment in defence has caused them to deteriorate to the extent that the current naval fleet has less than 25,000 personnel, with less than a hundred vessels.  All this to defend an archipelago of almost 8,000 islands, with a population of over 100 million, covering an ocean area of over one million square kilometres, including their EEZ.  In contrast, the Republic of Singapore Navy has just under half that number of modern vessels, with just under 10,000 personnel to cover an area less than 5% of that.

Additionally, most of the Philippines Navy uses obsolete equipment, and is in the modernisation process.  It will take several decades for them to adequately defend their own littoral waters, let alone take on one of the naval powers in the region.  The only other navies powerful enough to contend with the Japanese Maritime Self-Defence Force are the Koreans and the Chinese.  The USN is in a category by itself.  The Philippine Navy is hilariously out of its league.

Quora Answer: If There is a Coalition War within Southeast Asia, Which Country Will Dominate the Region?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “How will the scenario be if there is a coalition war within Southeast Asia; which country will dominate the region?”

There is no viable scenario where there will be a coalition conflict within Southeast Asia.  Firstly, the nations in the region belong to vastly different cultures: from Buddhist traditions on the north to Muslim in the south, with Catholic in the northern part of the archipelago, to animist far to the east; from a western aligned Singapore and Philippines, to formerly Eastern bloc aligned Indochina, to socialist Indonesia; from constitutional monarchies, to city state, to federal governments.  There is no real unifying factor.

Secondly, whilst there are border tensions among all members, they are not significant enough to overcome the shared need for economic growth and trade.  The unifying factor of ASEAN itself is the recognition that these countries are stronger as a bloc than as individual nations.

Finally, in the event of such an unlikely conflict, most of these nations either do not have the necessary force projection, or militaries large enough to fight multi-front conflicts.  For example, Singapore has the most advanced military.  But a war with both Malaysia and Indonesia would close off both ends of the Singapore Straits, starving it of supplies.  Indonesia has a large army, but its navy and air force are inadequate to provide the lift to send those soldiers anywhere safely.  They also cannot establish naval and aerial superiority, which is necessary for an amphibious landing in force.  Malaysia is stuck between neighbours with stronger militaries.  It would quickly disintegrate as a political entity with military cohesion.  But its terrain is excellent for guerilla warfare and impossible to hold.  The Philippines would be a non-factor.  It cannot attack anywhere, and it is protected from direct attack, as an island chain nation.  Continental Southeast Asia would be a bloodbath, from Myanmar to Vietnam.  Thailand would be sandwiched in between, and squeezed south.

We have to remember that Southeast Asia straddles one of the most important trade routes in the world.  The last time Indonesia threatened to invade Malaysia, during the Konfrontasi, the US sent a carrier group to the north of the Malacca Straits, and shut that down.  The US, China, Japan and India are not going to sit quietly while the region goes mad.

Quora Answer: If China Wages Total War on Vietnam, the Philippines, & Malaysia over the South China Sea, Should Indonesia, as a Non-Claimant Get Involved?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “If China wages total war with Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia, over the South China Sea, should Indonesia, as a non-claimant, declare war on China?”

There are three assertions here, and all of them are incorrect.

Firstly, whilst Indonesia is not a direct claimant of any territory in the South China Sea, it is a claimant of an exclusive economic zone in an area it has renamed the North Natuna Sea.  These claims on an exclusive economic zone overlap with China’s.  This means Indonesia is a claimant.

Secondly, Indonesia, along with Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines, are all part of ASEAN.  Whilst ASEAN does not have a mutual defence treaty such as NATO does, an attack upon one member of ASEAN would drag the others in, including Singapore, the rest of Indochina, Myanmar, and Thailand.  The Philippines is a major part of the US sphere.  Malaysia is part of the FPDA which includes Singapore, the UK, Australia and New Zealand.  The US has a carrier refit base in Singapore.  Such a war will not be a regional war, but have consequences across the globe.

Finally, China does not have the ability to wage total war in the South China Sea.  Total war means that the entire economy is converted to military production.  China is a large country, with the second-largest economy in the world.  However, considering debt to GDP ratio at over 300%, they cannot afford total war.

China also does not have a surface navy large enough to wage war in the vast area of the South China Sea, and still deter potential belligerents, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan in the East China Sea.  Having long borders and massive territorial claims means that even a military the size of the PLA cannot enforce them.  China’s military is also in a modernisation phase.  They do not have the force projection capability to fight a war on distant lands, across the sea.  China also does not have the lift capability to support an expeditionary force away from the Chinese mainland.

Quora Answer: How Did President Rodrigo Roa Duterte become 2nd Most Powerful in Southeast Asia?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “How did the Philippines President, Rodrigo Roa Duterte, become the most powerful man in Southeast Asia, after Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong?”

President Rodrigo Roa Duterte is far from the most powerful man in Southeast Asia.  Power requires a certain level of authority at home, and the means to project that authority, at least regionally.

Within the Philippines, after the fall of Ferdinand Emmanuel Edralin Marcos Sr., the Philippine Congress enacted measures that prevents any of his successors from ever declaring martial law unilaterally.  The wings of the office were severely curbed.  When we consider the legal mandate, President Duterte has been making the same mistakes he accused his predecessors of, such as appointing loyalists to certain offices regardless of their qualifications and qualities, and failing to stand up to regional powers.  The President has neither the legal mandate, nor an overwhelming popular mandate.  He has frittered away much of his political capital in failing to stand up to China on territorial claims.

Within Southeast Asia, the Philippines is the second most populous, after Indonesia, but in terms of GDP per capita, lags behind all the major nations.  Its military is tiny, and geared towards counter insurgency.  The Philippines does not have the standing, or the leadership to take a leading role in ASEAN.  There may be much debate on who the strongest leader of ASEAN is, but the President of the Philippines is not part of that conversation.

Quora Answer: Do Singaporeans Also Admire Duterte because of His Similarity to Lee Kuan Yew?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Do Singaporeans also admire Rodrigo Roa Duterte because of how similar he is to Lee Kwan Yew, in policies and greatness?” 

I am not sure, in which universe, would Rodrigo Roa Duterte would be considered great.  He is the current president of the Philippines.  He is still in office, and has no signature policy developments that can be said to impact the country positively.  On one hand, this is premature.  On the other hand, there are no signs of it. 

Firstly, whilst both are thought to be authoritarian, they are very different people.  There is much to criticise about Lee Kuan Yew, by his detractors.  But no one can ever claim a hint of any credibility issue.  Lee Kuan Yew never had affairs.  He was not known to lie.  He was ruthless, but he was fastidious in his relationships.  Duterte cannot even be faithful to his wife.  Can we trust his promises? 

Secondly, Lee Kuan Yew is an intellectual.  He was a sharp operator, an accomplished debater, and read profoundly.  Duterte is bluster, and bullying.  No one would ever mistake him for an intellectual.  He comes across as dim. 

Thirdly, Lee Kuan Yew understood the power of dressing well.  He has never been pictured looking disheveled, or unkempt.  Duterte looks like he is estranged from the shower, and has a deathly fear of ironed shirts. 

Putting all that aside, Lee Kuan Yew would never pander to a foreign power to the extent Duterte is hanging on to China’s tits.  As Prime Minister of Singapore, he made the Secretary of State of the United States of America issue a groveling apology for even attempting to bribe our ministers.  Duterte cannot even secure his country’s interests in the South China Sea. 

Lee Kuan Yew fired ministers for having more than one wife, or mistresses.  The reasoning being that a man who cannot be faithful to one woman, cannot be faithful to the country.  Duterte himself is guilty of multiple affairs, and admitted to sexual assault.  He has appointed sycophants to important posts in government, even as they are being investigated for corruption.  They do not have the same moral fibre.  Lee Kuan Yew was particular about adherence to the letter of the law.  He would never approve of extrajudicial killings of suspected criminals, activists, and journalists. 

In summary, let alone this laughable comparison with Lee Kuan Yew, Rodrigo Roa Duterte, on the consideration of his own merits, is far from impressive, and definitely not admired.  He is an improvement on other Filipino politicians, but not by much.  Choosing between him and other candidates, such as the Marcos clan, is like choosing your favourite form of haemorrhoids.  I feel very sorry for Filipino voters, because they deserve better.