Quora Answer: What Do You Think of Binkov’s Battleground’s Analysis of a Hypothetical War between Malaysia & Singapore?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “What do you think of Binkov’s Battleground’s analysis of a hypothetical war between Malaysia and Singapore?”  The video is here: Could the Malaysian military conquer Fortress Singapore?

There is no analysis.  It is akin to a child’s homework where he copied some details on Wikipedia, and made what he thought were educated guesses.  Assuming we ignore the multilateral international frameworks that would normally preclude such madness, and there is such a war, it would likely be Singapore declaring war.

The first assumption is that all of Malaysia’s military is sitting in the Peninsula, and East Malaysia is undefended.  This is illogical.  Malaysia has the geopolitical disadvantage of having to split its military.  Singapore has no such disadvantage.  Malaysia has its better units in East Malaysia.  This means they are a thousand kilometres from Kuala Lumpur.  The video also forgets that Singapore has a substantial military presence in Brunei, which would tie up significant Malaysian assets.

Secondly, the notion that Malaysia would be able to send troops from east Malaysia in a week is also ridiculous.  It assumes a lift capability Malaysia does not possess, and the ability to secure the units in the crossing, which requires Malaysia to have reasonable air and naval superiority, which is not going to happen.

The videos assume war is like some sort of game where there is attritional warfare.  This is the age of manoeuvre warfare.  Singapore needs to take ground to create strategic depth.  Malaysia needs to deny that.  Singapore needs to avoid the cities and take Putrajaya to force Malaysia to the negotiating table.  Malaysia needs to hold out until Singapore’s frontline is exhausted.  It will necessarily be a short, brutal conflict.

The Malaysians are not stupid.  They understand that Singapore has a larger, more mobile military.  There is a huge force disparity, at least three to one.  This is because Singapore’s military is built for offence, whereas Malaysia’s is built for defence.  Due to the disparity in wealth, Singapore’s defence budget dwarves every other nation in the region, and is geared towards next generation warfare.  Malaysia’s tiny defence budget is still on procurement to replace obsolete equipment.

They do not have an air force or navy that can contend with Singapore due to corruption and endemic issues.  As such, the emphasis would be to lure the SAF into the jungles and bog them down at choke points.  The idea is to break civilian support through major casualties.  Malaysia’s artillery assets are all based close to the Thai border, away from Singapore counter-artillery, with the likely fire mission of targeting the Causeway and bridges.  They are not going to waste their small ammunition stockpile hitting reinforced HDB flats.  Their barely functioning submarine force and anti-ship arsenal will likely be used to choke the Malacca Straits as a means to get a foreign power involved, and bring both sides to a negotiated settlement.  Where Malaysia does excel is that their Commandos and special forces are experts at jungle warfare, and raiding.  They also have combat experience.  They will likely be deployed to disrupt the chain of operational command.  The problem is that they do not have enough of them.

The video claims Singapore will perform “costly amphibious assaults” across the Jorah (Johor) Straits.  There is the Causeway, and the Second Link.  There are the Guards units, which are heliborne assault units to seize the Malaysian side.  There is enough bridging equipment to bring sufficient troops over, since the Johor Straits is very narrow.  And while the Causeway may be blown up, it is not a bridge, meaning that it can be fixed relatively quickly.  The consideration is urban fighting in Johor Baru, and the suburbs along the straits.  However, Singapore has extensive FIBUA training whereas Malaysia focuses on jungle warfare.  Singapore need not seize the entire city.  They need to seize the North-South Highway, and drive all the way to Putrajaya.  This is where there will be the most military action.

Putrajaya is the purpose-built administrative centre, with wide avenues, and straight roads.  It is a lot easier to seize by mechanised and motorised elements than Kuala Lumpur itself, which would be an urban nightmare.  And with air superiority all the way, the Malaysian command elements would be quickly dispersed or eliminated.

The question here is why would Singapore want to fight such a war?  Singapore would win it easily, mainly due to chronic underinvestment on the Malaysian side in operational readiness, but it will not benefit her in terms of international relations since it would result in the likely dissolution of ASEAN, and regional pacts, and create hostility with neighbouring states such as Indonesia.  That would affect economic growth.  War is the foreign policy of last resort.

In summary, the video by Binkov’s Battleground is rubbish.  In fact, all their videos get scenarios wrong, some hilariously.  The strength of a military is not just the toys they have on paper, but how many they can effectively field in theatre.  War is won on logistics, and logistics is never a major consideration in many of these videos because it is not as sexy as the number of tanks, planes and ships.