Quora Answer: Is the US on the Path to Greatness Again?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Is the current path America is on, the correct one to make America great again, or are we in the final days like what Rome had?”

The United States is in an irrevocable, gradual decline.  It is nowhere on any path greatness. However, such is the size of the country and its economy, it will not be obvious except to economists, and political observers for decades to come.  Consider this.  From 1989 to 2018, the top 1% of Americans increased their total net worth by US$21 trillion.  The bottom 50% saw their net worth decrease by $900 billion over the same period, in 2018 dollars.  When there is that level of wealth disparity, society and the economy suffers.

No country can afford to have increasing sections of its population disenfranchised.  This creates instability.  We learn, from history, that when large sections of a young population is disenfranchised, they have no more stake in the status quo, and this leads to unrest, revolutions, and even civil wars.  The US is not on the precipice of civil war, but this is a ticking time bomb.  A healthy economy needs a strong middle class to drive growth, and consumption.  When that middle class is squeezed into oblivion, it will eventually affect gross domestic production, which is a downward spiral.  The US has outsourced much of its production and manufacturing capability, and is in no position to bring it back in the near future due to lack of sufficient infrastructure, lack of sufficient workforce, and a disadvantage in costs.

Currently, the US gets around this problem by selling to the rest of the world.  This is not the time for any sort of trade war, because the US is not in a strong position, contrary to what the domestic audience is told.  The US has trade deficits because they consume more than the sell, and are not producing anything that they can sell that others cannot find alternatives.  This makes sectors such as agriculture particularly vulnerable.

Also, the US Dollar is the de facto reserve currency of the world because petroleum sales are denominated in that currency.  Countries such as Iran, Russia, and China, are already flirting with bilateral trade denominated in their local currencies or barter.  The formation of the SCO, and rival development banks are a threat to the IMF and World Bank, and the underlying order.  Currently, the US enforces the hegemony of the US Dollar by engaging in expensive regime change in nations that have threatened to sell in other than the US Dollar.  This is unsustainable.  This artificial demand for the US Dollar is what is helping keep that economy afloat.

Successive US governments have underinvested in infrastructure, education and healthcare.  Much of that money has been spent in the military industrial complex, and supporting areas such as for-profit prisons, pharmaceutical cartels, and an under-regulated banking system.  The consequences of this is that successive generations of Americans become less educated, and les equipped to function in a modern economy.  This makes the country less competitive economically.  Underinvestment in infrastructure is also a concern because their eventual failure will have a cascading effect, which will further dent confidence in American systems and institutions.  This is a society that is slowly being polarised, and cannibalising itself.  The current lobbying system is entrenched corruption and bribery, and this will lead to further disenfranchisement and polarisation.

The US will slowly become less and less competitive.  Its gradual economic failure will lead to more military adventurism to enforce hegemony, and loot more vulnerable nations of their wealth to sustain a broken system.  As the number of unsupported veterans slowly grow, adding to the economic underclass, this cycle of violence will eventually increase, because we have people with military skills but no prospects.  That is a dangerous combination.  Eventually, sections of the population will rise up against a system they feel has failed them, fueling a cycle of civil disorder along race and class lines.  This wealth disparity that is attendant to this will also lead to some states being less willing to subsidise poorer states.  There will be an eventual realigning of the political map to reflect this.  The electoral college is unsustainable, and that huge population and wealth disparity will eventually become too obvious to be tolerable.

In summary, the US is not going to be great again.  Whatever reforms necessary to stem this decline is beyond the political will of its elected officials.  The leaders of a country reflect the system and its people.  The US deserves Donald John Trump.