Quora Answer: How Would You Assess the Effectiveness of Singapore’s Foreign Policy in Managing Cold War Challenges?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “How would you assess the effectiveness of Singapore’s foreign policy in managing Cold War challenges?”

Singapore’s singular challenge during the Cold War period was in maintaining its foreign policy independence during a period of superpower conflict.  This was complicated by a few considerations.

Firstly, the US was largely a hegemonic power in the guise of a benign patron.  This can be seen in its role toppling and installing governments in places as diverse as the Middle East, Central America, and even in Southeast Asia.  Many of these countries have not recovered from this, decades later.

Secondly, the Soviet Union had an evangelical agenda in exporting the Communist cause.  Singapore itself fought a Communist insurgency, and had to contend with the legacy of the Fall of South Vietnam in Indochina, necessitating the formation of SEATO, and the ASEAN.

Thirdly, the rise of China, independent of the Soviet Union, with claims over the Greater China region, and ambitions to influence the Chinese diaspora.  Singapore, with a population that is 70% Chinese, viewed itself as particularly vulnerable.

To address these, Singapore joined or created multinational organisations, with an emphasis on economic growth and diplomacy.  Singapore is not part of any major military alliance, from either side.  Singapore is part of the Non-Aligned Movement, and firmly in the Third World.  This allowed Singapore to decline involvement in the proxy wars of the period.  When Singapore was invited to send a contingent to support South Vietnam, Singapore declined, correctly surmising that once the Americans are gone, she still have to deal with the new government, regardless of who won.

One of the keys to maintaining an independent foreign policy is to not take aid.  Aid always comes with strings attached.  This meant building the economy the hard way, taking the long-term view, and making strategic decisions that would benefit Singapore down the road.  This is the key to Singapore’s policy formulation.  Singapore is one of the largest net contributors to foreign aid in the world.  That gives Singapore an outsized influence in many poorer regions.

Early on, because of Singapore’s military alignment with the Western sphere, Singapore decided to procure NATO compatible arms.  The decision was made partly due to what Singapore inherited from the British, her arrangements with the Israeli Defence Force, and the fact that a small nation needed weapons that emphasised force multiplication and technological advantage.  A small population base is not suitable to Soviet-style tactics.  Also, Russian arms packages also meant Russian military advisors, who tended to stay long after their advice was required.

Consequently, Singapore pursued a tightrope of playing one power against the other.  On the surface, Singapore was militarily aligned with the West.  Economically, Singapore was one of the first countries to do business with China, and was instrumental in it opening up.  Singapore actively campaigned for the diplomatic isolation of Vietnam, funded groups that fought the Khmer Rouge and then the Vietnamese in Cambodia.  Later, Singapore actively championed for their inclusion into ASEAN, creating a united bloc against an increasingly assertive China and limiting American influence in the region.  Whilst building industrial parks in China, Singapore also allowed the US Navy rights to replenish their fleet here, being one of the few naval bases in the world able to dock a supercarrier.  This was to counter Chinese territorial claims in the South China Sea.

Singapore is adept in creating space for itself, and having its voice heard behind the scenes.  As the sixth largest small arms supplier in the world, she supplied arms indirectly to the Tamil Tigers and other insurgency groups clandestinely, and then pulled that support once they outlived their usefulness.  Singapore was clever about not being seen as a leading voice in the Non-Aligned Movement so that she had flexibility in dealing with more powerful nations, whilst using the NAM to pressure them for concessions.

Since Singapore is too small to have a say in groups such as the G20, she created the G77 group of nations, and as the permanent head, represents them at the G20 as a permanent guest.  Singapore initiated the ASEAN Free Trade Area, and undermined Malaysia’s East Asia Economic Caucus because it was seen as too anti-Western.  Singapore also initiated the TPP as a trade bloc to pressure China subtly, and maintain economic independence.

In summary, Singapore has not changed the way it operates.  The Cold War may be over, but a multipolar world arising from the failing and flailing American-lead world order means this is a more complicated world.