Quora Answer: How Can Singapore Expect to Win a War with Malaysia?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “How can Singapore expect to win a war with Malaysia?”

Singapore is one of the most militarised states in the world.  It has a stated military strength of at least 350,000 including reservists.  The Army is one of the most mobile in the world, with approximately a vehicle for every 3 combat soldiers.

There is a white paper somewhere, a quick google search away, that gives other details such as the fact that RSAF fields the largest number of modern combat aircraft in Southeast Asia, including a large complement of attack helicopters.  The RSN has stealth corvettes, and frigates.  In terms of hardware, the SAF as a whole, vastly outnumbers the Malaysian military in all parameters that matter.  If wars were won on paper, Singapore would beat Malaysia every single time.  But wars are not won on paper.

If war broke out, Singapore would be in Kuala Lumpur within 3 days, and have likely achieved every military objective between Singapore and the Mersing line.  The Malaysian government is not filled with absolute idiots.  They know they cannot win a conventional war, and they do not plan to.  What they will do is disperse their leadership and command structure, and do what their regular military are very good at - jungle-based low intensity conflict.  Singapore, despite its military superiority, does not have the strategic depth for a prolonged conflict, and no logistical means to hold both Peninsular Malaysia and East Malaysia.

Also, such a conflict will draw in Indonesia eventually.  And while Singapore is closer to the Indonesians than the Malaysians, it does not serve their national interest for Singapore to hold the entire peninsula without significant concessions.  That means they would likely try to finish what they attempted during the Konfrontasi, and take Sabah and Sarawak.  Despite it being comprised of an archipelago, the Tentara Nasional Indonesia does not have the logistics capability to move large numbers of troops across the islands, and they have no means to protect such convoys.

Furthermore, a conflict in the region where the busiest shipping lanes meet would swiftly involve the US, to protect the oil lanes, and China, to exert her hegemony over the South China Sea region.  The US would quickly aim to do what they did the last time, during the Konfrontasi, and send a carrier group to block the Malacca Straits.  China would have a battle group past Macclesfield Bank to block the other end of the Singapore Straits.  All parties would be forced to the negotiating table, and status quo restored.

The US and NATO have significant presence in Singapore and the Singapore government, even if they went mad, would be unlikely to launch an attack, likely pre-emptive, without the collusion of the US.  China would certainly expect American involvement, and tensions would sky rocket.

In summary, a war between Singapore and Malaysia will not stay a war between Singapore and Malaysia and involve the entire region, sucking in regional powers, and hegemons.  And no one will actually win anything.  A lot of infrastructure will be destroyed, and a lot of people will die.  Considering a lot of Singaporeans and Malaysians are related to each other, there will be a lot atrocities and pogroms.  It will be personal long after a ceasefire.