Quora Answer: What is Singapore's Strategy if Malaysia Turns into an Aggressor & Attacks under the Mahathir Leadership?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “What is Singapore’s strategy if Malaysia turns into an aggressor, and attacks under the Mahathir leadership?”

At a strategic level, Malaysia will lose, and lose badly.  This is not an indictment of the combat abilities of the Malaysian military.  They have very good soldiers, and are some of the best in jungle warfare.  However, war, at a strategic level, is won through logistics, political coherence, and an established series of battle plans with specific objectives.

Something that should be corrected, is that elements of the Malaysian Armed Forces, and the Singapore Armed Forces do have combat experience.  Malaysian commandos have acquitted themselves well in overseas action in Somalia, Afghanistan, and Yemen.  Certain units in Singapore were involved in military action around the region, from Timor Leste, to Mindanao to Sri Lanka, as observers, advisors or direct action.

Firstly, an invasion requires mobilisation.  Malaysia requires a military strength of at least three times the defending force in Singapore.  They do not have that. Assuming they implement conscription and muster up the numbers, they cannot mobilise an army group and equip them in the requisite time. Singapore can - that is the purpose of all those mobilisation exercises.  Malaysia is also unable to mobilise those numbers quietly.  Singapore is not going to sit by and wait for them to come to the Causeway.  The Singapore Armed Forces is an offensive force, not a defensive one.  Since Singapore does not have strategic depth to fall back on, that strategic depth must be created by taking territory.  This means securing bridges, ports, roads, air fields, and other strategic points that are within the cover of its artillery umbrella, which is over 100 km.

Secondly, Singapore has overwhelming advantage in all areas of military hardware, being one of the of the most mobile militaries in the world.  Singapore has a vehicle for every three soldiers.  It will have aerial superiority and naval domination of the littoral waters numerically and technologically.  Air interdiction of assets alone will mean that any forces within the entirety of the theatre of war would be unable to move, let alone stop an invasion.  The Malaysian Armed Forces will cease to exist as a coherent fighting force within six hours.

Thirdly, the objective of Singapore would be to seize enough territory to be used as a concession to force Malaysia to the negotiation table.  Taking territory is one thing, but keeping it is politically unviable.  The longer Singapore holds that territory, the more international pressure would build.  Also, scenario modelling shows that holding that territory for an extended period of time will allow a growing resistance movement, which will inflict more casualties than actual combat operations.  Since the Singapore Armed Forces is an offensive force, it does not have the tested morale or the logistics capability of holding that territory in the face of widespread low intensity conflict.

I am quite certain that the Malaysian government is aware that there is no viable military option on the table.  Even if there were an unlikely alliance with Indonesia, Singapore’s assured domination of the seas and air will preclude any meaningful contribution.  As such, Mahathir bin Mohamad is only posturing for a domestic audience.

From a Singaporean perspective, military action is unpalatable because the political cost outweighs the gain.  A military deterrent is only effective when it is a deterrent.  Once that card is played, Singapore is an aggressor, and that has political and trade ramifications that would take decades to address.

Considering the short timeline of this hypothetical conflict, regional and world powers would not have the time to deploy forces, such as when the US sent an aircraft carrier to the Malacca Straits during the Konfrontasi.  This means that they would seek to militarise the Malacca Straits by overtly positioning assets in the region to protect their trade routes.  This would spell the end of the region as an independent, non-aligned actor on the world stage.  This would also end ASEAN as a bloc.