Quora Answer: What if North Korea & China were to Attack Japan?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “What if North Korea and China were to attack Japan?”

This is not going to happen.  Assuming Japan’s allies, South Korea and the US do not get involved, which is very unlikely, the Self-Defence Force is no pushover.  But we are getting ahead of ourselves.

Wars are exercises in logistics.  Campaigns are conducted based on this.  North Korea is a non-actor.  They have no means to project their military beyond their borders.  They have no functioning air force or navy.  China does not have the air force or the navy to secure the corridor to launch an invasion.  They do not have the sealift to send troops to Taiwan, 200 km away; they have no means to send a meaningful invasion force 3,000 km away.

The PLA is not structured as an offence force.  China’s military invests in area denial, which is meant to deter the USN’s carrier fleets, for example.  It is not meant for offence action over an extended theatre.  As such, they have limited air-to-air refueling for an air force of that size, and not enough surface vessels.