Quora Answer: If War Broke Out between Malaysia & Singapore, Would Indonesia Help Malaysia?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “If a war broke out between Malaysia and Singapore, would Indonesia help Malaysia?”

A shooting war between Malaysia and Singapore is extremely unlikely.  For such a scenario to develop, relations between these two have to plumb whole new depths, and no rational person sees that happening.  The most likely scenario would be Malaysia crossing the red line by reneging on the two long-term agreements, forcing Singapore to take military action.  Singapore’s military is currently better equipped to wage war due to chronic underinvestment and corruption in Malaysia, as well as inadequacies in the procurement process.

This is compounded by the fact that while Malaysia has a larger population base, it actually has a smaller military and a smaller trained manpower base.  This is because Singapore has conscription whereas Malaysia is largely a volunteer force.  We must also consider that many of Malaysia’s better units are across the sea, in East Malaysia, and cannot be deployed in time to make a difference.  This means Singapore has a distinct advantage in force concentration, in addition to the huge technology advantage.

Indonesia has a large military force, but they are scattered throughout the archipelago, and they do not have the life capability to move a substantial force to support Malaysia in a land war.  Indonesia also lacks 4^th generation aircraft, or an adequate navy, meaning they have no means to protect their troops during their movement to the theatre.

All this is assuming that Indonesia would actually side with Malaysia.  Indonesia has a much closer relationship with Singapore.  The SAF trains more often with TNI than the MAF, and they have forged relationships across all levels, all the way to the executive office.  Malaysia and Indonesia have a difficult political relationship, and several major bilateral issues that are unresolved, from the treatment of Indonesian foreign workers in Malaysia, to border disputes.

From a political perspective, Indonesia would have already known that Singapore would be able to force Malaysia to the negotiation table for war reparations and settlement faster than they can mobilise.  In fact, they would welcome a quick resolution in order to keep the Malacca Straits open.  Why would they want to prolong the conflict, incur losses, and delay an inevitable Singapore victory over an unprepared MAF?  It makes no sense.  Indonesia is also a recipient of direct and indirect aid from Singapore.  Singapore has major investments in Indonesia.  The wealthy political elite keep their wealth in Singapore banks, and send their children to Singapore schools.  Many of these same people, including military leaders, also have property in Singapore, and even permanent residency.  In summary, no, Indonesia is not going to rush to Malaysia’s defence.  They have nothing to gain.