Quora Answer: How Powerful is the Eurasian Economic Union?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “How powerful is the Eurasian Economic Union?”

The Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), as the name suggests, is an economic union.  It is neither a military alliance, nor a confederation of states.  The original Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union was signed on the 29^th May 2014, and came into force on the 01^st January 2015.  The original signatories were Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia.  It has since expanded to Armenia and Kyrgyzstan.

At the moment, the EEU is an integrated market of 180 million people, with a GDP of US$5 trillion PPP.  It is structured as a common market, allowing the free movement of goods and services, people, and capital.  There are common policies, at the macroeconomic level, pertaining to several economic sectors.  There is also a supranational and intergovernmental framework pertaining to regulation, customs, and tariffs.

At the moment, the EEU is very young, and needs time to mature.  There are plans towards greater integration, and a single currency.  Membership to the EEU has been offered to all states of the former Soviet Union, except the Baltic states.  Turkey was also offered membership, but at that time, was focused on entering the EU.  Tajikistan is in the process of entering the EEU.  Uzbekistan is hesitant.  Ukraine were in the process until there was a change of government.  Additionally, the break-away regions of several former Soviet states have expressed interest in joining as a path towards international recognition.  They are Transnistria, from Moldova; Donetsk and Luhansk, from Ukraine; and South Ossetia and Abkhazia, from Armenia.  It is speculated that membership will eventually be offered, observer or full, to Iran, and China, and encompass the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.

The proposed expanded EEU will be a major economic bloc, that would have a population greater than the EU and North America combined, and control almost 25% of the world’s area, including major energy and mineral deposits.  They would have a major say in the world economy, and shape the geopolitical climate to a greater extent.

At the moment, however, it is relatively weak politically.  This is evidenced by the fact that of all the European post-Soviet states, and the former Warsaw Pact, the majority have joined, or have ambitions to join the EU instead.  Out of the Central Asian states; Turkmenistan has not expressed any interest, while Uzbekistan still needs convincing.  Major trading partners, potential members, and potential dialogue partners such as India, Pakistan, Turkey, China, and Syria, have not expressed explicit interest for observer status.

Despite this, the current incarnation of the EEU is already an energy superpower, with control over well over a fifth of the world’s hydrocarbon energy reserves, and an agricultural superpower.  There are already free trade agreement negotiations with Egypt, Iran, China, Vietnam, and with ASEAN.  There is a pivot east after failure to entice much of Russia’s European periphery.  Even Korea, and Japan are open to some form of cooperation, with similar East Asian initiatives.  Like ASEAN, they are interested in securing energy supplies that do not go through the Straits of Hormuz.  We must also consider the mineral wealth.  Russia alone has some of the largest reserves of titanium, cadmium, and many other minerals.

The EEU has great potential, and could possibly come to dominate two continents, and shape the direction of international relations in decades to come.  At the moment, however, it is not yet a major player in world affairs.  Aside from Russia, its members are poorer nations, requiring time and investment to develop their infrastructure.