Quora Answer: Would Singapore be Neutral in a War between China & the United States?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Would Singapore be neutral in a war between China and the United States?”

In the event of a hot war between the US and China, Singapore would strive to remain neutral because that is the position of ASEAN.  ASEAN was the core of the Non-Aligned Movement during the Cold War.  It would not make sense to change that now.

There is no benefit in taking sides because regardless of who wins, we will have to live with the consequences.  The US would likely win such a conflict in the near term, but it would have no ability to occupy China or enforce any meaningful concessions beyond territorial claims of islands in the South China Sea.  China would still be intact, albeit chastened, and it will still be the factory of the world.  It will not be defeated for long.  With such a vast hinterland, resources, manufacturing capability and population base, it would likely recover quickly, and assert itself again.

In contrast, the US is a fading power.  All it has left is a strong military.  Whilst it would not do antagonise it, we must play the long game and recognise the eventual strategic shift.  The US has a declining manufacturing base, increasing social problems and a growing class struggle.  It will eventually reorganise, or break up.  If we align ourselves with the US, we will have an unreliable ally against China.  If we align ourselves with China, we will lose our independence in foreign relations, and still have to deal with an antagonistic western bloc.  Both are not profitable.