Quora Answer: What will Happen if Muslims become the Majority in Singapore?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “What will happen if Muslims become the majority in Singapore?”

That is a very unlikely hypothetical scenario.  Muslims are between 11 to 15% of the population, depending on the metrics used.  It would take a series of unlikely, catastrophic events to cause such a demographic shift, such as the collapse of fertility in other religious groups, a major refugee crisis, or war for that to happen in the near time.  In such an extreme case, it would be irrelevant who the majority is, since the country would be in dire straits anyway.

On the other hand, assume we entertain this notion, the assumption of many would be that the Muslims are a monolithic bloc, which is far from the truth.  The only thing that those who identify as Muslims have is the shahadah, the declaration of faith.  Within this demographic, many groups do not recognise each other as Muslim.  There are several contending theological, sociological and jurisprudential traditions.

Also, we have to consider the fact that having the majority of people belonging to a certain religion does not mean that they would have a commensurate influence on policy, or that they would even be the majority in government.  Just as the demographic evolves, so too, will the power structure to keep the incumbents at an advantage.  It is only natural.

What would not happen, is the rise of Islamist parties, since that would require a change of the Constitution, and the secular nature of the country.  It would require an overwhelming majority of the electorate to support such a constitutional referendum, and there is still no guarantee.

What would change would be the dynamics of Singapore’s relationship with its two immediate neighbours, which are larger, and Muslim majority.  But it will not mean that our foreign policy alignments will necessarily be different.  Singapore would still be a close diplomatic ally of Israel due to longstanding mutual interests.  A Muslim majority would not change that dynamic just as it did not preclude Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey from having diplomatic relations and military cooperation with Israel. Whatever the perceived faith of people, the true religion of political rulers is still that of power and profit.