Quora Answer: Will China's Building of Aircraft Carriers Promote Stability in the Region?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Will China building more aircraft carriers promote or diminish stability in their part of the world?” 

China has extensive territorial claims in the South China Sea alone to enforce.  Their littoral waters, their EEZ, and their offshore installations require them to have a blue water navy, and project force in an area far from their mainland air bases.  That one air base in Hainan alone is insufficient to cover the South China Sea, and the turnaround time for their air cover is too long to be meaningful.  As such, no one can begrudge China building aircraft carriers because it is a need, not a want.  As to whether this promotes or diminishes stability, that depends entirely on how they are employed, and China’s commitment to multilateral international framework.  Thus far, they have proven to be more reliable than Donald John Trump’s United States as a dialogue partner. 

Should China see through the OBOR to its logical conclusion, they will eventually need a fleet in the Indian Ocean to secure their supplies of raw materials from East Africa and the Gulf.  This would explain them seeking a naval facility in Myanmar or even Pakistan.  This will displease India, so there will be tensions there.  For all their aircraft carriers that they plan to have, China does not have the logistic capability to wage an extended naval campaign in the Indian Ocean against India.  This means further diplomatic rapprochement. 

As a rising power, having a larger military presence actual means greater diplomacy.  They are at the stage where they have some capability, which forces others to the table, but no real ability for extended action which forces them to compromise.  After all, losing a carrier group would be a huge blow to national prestige.  Their government will not risk that.