Quora Answer: Can China Successfully Force the United States Navy out of the Asia-Pacific Region?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “How can China successfully force the United States Navy out of the Asia-Pacific region?” 

The Asia-Pacific is a vast region.  We are talking about the waters of the eastern oblasts of Russia, all the way south to the islands of Indonesia.  For China to achieve that, it requires two things: a navy that is more powerful that the US Navy in the region, and the ability to deploy an effective naval presence to preclude American naval deployment. 

With regards the first point, China is at least half a century behind when it comes to hardware, personnel, and most importantly, doctrine.  They do not have enough surface vessels to flood the region, they do not have the aerial superiority to protect those vessels, and they do not have enough experienced men.  That level of military buildup is an expensive commitment.  This is exacerbated by the fact that China has never really had a history as a naval power in her entire history.  She was always a land empire.  The closest she ever had were the huge armadas of the Ming period, and they were never truly tested in combat with a near rival. 

The United States grew its navy in the crucible of war with Japan, which was a genuine naval power, during World War II.  They paid that price in men and material to reach where they are today.  They also had the advantage of the Royal Navy transferring their expertise, particularly in carrier operations, which they built upon.  I do not see any such transfer of technology, and knowledge between the US and China.  The Chinese fleet is capable enough in her near abroad, but it has no demonstrated capability to conduct extended fleet operations in the high seas, far from her home ports.  She does not have a credible carrier air wing yet, and it will take another decade for that to be rectified. 

With regards the second point, even the mighty US Navy cannot field a naval presence that would preclude Chinese deployment in the Asia-Pacific, if it ever came to that.  And that is why the USN works with friendly nations such as South Korea, Japan, and even Singapore, conducting joint exercises, and fleet exchanges.  China, by herself, cannot build enough ships to deny the entire Asia-Pacific theatre to the USN, because that also means war with her allies.  The Japanese Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, by itself, has more than 150 surface craft, and over 300 aircraft.  By herself, she could challenge Chinese naval supremacy, let alone the USN itself.