Quora Answer: Will China Have the Military Capability to Successfully Invade Taiwan by 2029?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Will China have the military capability to successfully invade and hold Taiwan by 2029?”

No.  China has the ability to attack Taiwan, to blockade Taiwan, and to deny it airspace and littoral waters even now.  But it does not have the ability to invade Taiwan, even by 2029.  The first barrier is control of the sea and air.  Whilst China can deny Taiwan control of them, it cannot achieve superiority, which is the prerequisite of a successful invasion.

First, China has to contend with the US Navy, specifically the Pacific Fleet, and the Indian Ocean Fleet, the 7^th and 5^th.  This is why China is working to develop sufficient shore-based and ship-based ASW capability, including hypersonic missiles to keep the carrier fleets at their extreme operation range, limiting their effectiveness to interdict Chinese forces marshalling across the Taiwan Straits.

China does not have an effective 5^th generation fighter in sufficient numbers to sweep the USN and USAF from the skies.  They will lose too many aircraft to fulfill the ground support role required in securing a beach head.  The political calculation would be to make American and possibly allied casualties so high as to make opposing China politically prohibitive.  This is assuming that no one avails themselves to a nuclear conflict.

Invading Taiwan requires securing the South China Sea all the way to Macclesfield Bank.  It also requires blockading the waters of the East China Sea up to Korea, where the US has a large land contingent.  China does not have enough surface ships to do that.  Shore batteries can only reach so far.  They do not have enough aircraft to secure the airspace of such a wide theatre of conflict.

In the past, they could always have used North Korea as a proxy to take pressure off by creating a secondary front.  As of now, the disparity between the ROK and DPRK forces is so wide, that aside from the initial artillery bombardment, North Korea would collapse before significant ROK forces seized Pyongyang.  Kim Jong-Un is not an idiot.  The South Koreans are also quite aware of this, but they do not want the expense of unification, and a humanitarian crisis at the border.  The facade of deterrent is cheaper.

Assuming all this is miraculously addressed, China does not have the sea and airlift capability to move the 200,000 or so troops needed for the meat grinder of an initial beach assault.  They could conceivably have enough landing ships by 2029, but not the naval support to prevent them being sitting ducks crossing the Straits.  China is building aircraft carriers to project force, pushing US carriers further away from the theatre.  It would take another 30 years to commission a deterrent carrier fleet.  They are currently experimenting with different take-off and recovery systems.  Their designated fighter is still too heavy for effective carrier operations.

In summary, China has major logistics and doctrinal issues to address before they think of a Taiwan invasion.  By the time they fix all that, Taiwan would have likely become another SAR on their own terms.