Quora Answer: What Would Happen if Malaysia Invades Singapore?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “What would happen if Malaysia invades Singapore?”

The presumption here is that Malaysia can invade Singapore, which is unrealistic.  Conventional wisdom is that an aggressor requires at least three times the size of the defending force.  Singapore’s active military is four times Malaysia’s.  Singapore’s defence spending is more than twice, with per capita spending that dwarfs Malaysia.  And all this, before we consider the vast technological disparity.

Malaysia has trouble securing its borders from militants from Mindanao.  It has no credible early detection, no credible standoff capability, no credible sea lift, and has not even managed to maintain what they have due to endemic corruption.  What are they going to do?  March across the Causeway, and we are going to bend over for them?

Malaysian politicians are full of bluster, but even Mahathir bin Mohamed is on record that Malaysia cannot win a war against Singapore.  Their Defence Minister, Mohamad bin Sabu, has announced to the world that the MAF has aircraft that cannot fly, a submarine that cannot submerge, and soldiers who have not been training.  The closest Malaysia would come to an invasion is if their ethnic and religious tensions lead to the country imploding and us having thousands of refugees at the border.