Quora Answer: Can Iran Win a War against Saudi Arabia?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Can Iran win a war against Saudi Arabia?”

It would be difficult for there to be a war between Iran and Saudi Arabia.  For one, they do not share a land border.  As such, any conflict will be a naval and aerial conflict.  There will be no taking of territory since neither side has the means to project force over the distance required to take territory within the other side’s borders.  Any conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran would be a proxy war, which is exactly what the conflict in Yemen is, and thus far, Saudi Arabia is losing, and losing badly.

The second point of consideration is that any conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran will not stay between them, but draw in the entire region, as well as world powers.  China and Russia will be on the side of Iran, and the United States will be on the side of Saudi Arabia.  This is a conflict about control of the energy resources of the region.  There will be consequences far beyond the region, and energy prices will spike throughout the world, plunging the rest of the world into an economic crisis.

In a hypothetical conflict, disregarding international alliances and geographic distance, the Saudi military is much smaller than the Iranian, incompetently lead, and with little practical military experience.  The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has acquitted themselves well in the Iran-Iraq War, the conflict against ISIS, and interventions in Syria and Iran.  They have also deployed technical experts in Yemen and Lebanon, and are well appraised of the military capabilities of the GCC.  Saudi intelligence is suspect, and they depend heavily on the Americans and Israelis.  No sane military analyst can see the Saudis winning this by themselves.