Quora Answer: If Iran Used Mines to Attack Oil Tankers in International Waters, Would You Support the Use of the US Military to Eliminate the Iranian Threat?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “If Iran used mines to attack oil tankers headed to Japan, in international waters, would you support the use of the US military to eliminate the Iranian military threat?”

The only source of these allegations of Iranian aggression is the US, and the US is far from the most credible source.  The US has been using the same methods to justify aggression for decades, from the Gulf of Tonkin incident to start the Vietnam War, to the debunked claims of weapons of mass destruction to invade Iraq, to this.  The UK government is America’s lapdog.  Their verification carries no worth either.

The US has been agitating for war with Iran for decades.  This is not new.  It was the CIA which overthrew the democratically elected government of Mohammad Mosaddegh, in a 1953 coup, and installed the Shah as an American puppet.  When the Shah was overthrown, the US used a proxy to invade Iran in the aftermath of the Iranian Revolution.  They sanctioned Saddam Hussein’s invasion which lead to the Iran-Iraq War, and funded him.  American aggression against Iran is not new.

In light of this, who, in their right mind, would sanction further American military adventure and regime change for their selfish interests, and upset the international order?  It was American meddling that created the vacuum that allowed groups such as ISIS to gain traction.  Iran will have Russian and Chinese help.  There is a danger that this will turn into a global conflict, and all because America’s leadership is infested with jingoistic warmongers.

Quora Answer: Could the Iranian Navy, Blocking the Strait of Hormuz, Choke the Global Economy?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Could the Iranian Navy, blocking the Strait of Hormuz, choke the global economy?  If it goes on long enough, would it invite military retaliation from other countries?”

The Straits of Hormuz is the only egress from the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean.  It is estimated that 25% of crude oil, and 60% of LNG goes through the Straits.  Iran is on the northern shore of the Straits, and it is part of its littoral waters.  As such, Iran does not have to actually block the Straits of Hormuz.  It need only threaten to, and global energy prices will spike.

Iran does have the capability of blocking off the Straits, which is not that difficult, because it is only 21 nm wide, at its narrowest.  This means that Iran can deploy mobile shore batteries, and still threaten shipping in the straits.  It does not need to deploy its naval fleet of attack craft armed with anti-ship missiles.  Iran has the largest, and most diverse, ballistic missile and anti-ship missile complement in the region, despite having the lowest per capita spend on military.  Much of its capability is indigenous due to an American lead arms embargo.

The nature of the geography means that it suits Iran’s asymmetrical warfare strategy.  Blocking the Straits will certainly invite an American military response.  However, the narrowness of the Persian Gulf means that a carrier fleet, or any element of the US Navy, cannot operate freely in those waters.  The carriers will have to launch from the Arabian Sea, which limit their effectiveness.  The US has military assets in bases around the region, and they can launch aircraft from bases as far afield as Incirlik, in Turkey, or Bagram, in Afghanistan.

The problem is this: Iran has demonstrated, whether by itself, or through proxies in the region, that it has the ability to strike at US military bases in the region, using drones, and missiles based within, or outside of Iran proper.  They may not have aerial superiority, but they are quite capable of destroying aircraft on the ground.  Iran, with Russian assistance, also has a significant air defence network, and an air campaign will be expensive, and risky.  Any attack on Iran will draw in the entire region, and that will further tank the world economy, which is still part of the Iranian objective.

That being said, this is not a card the Iranians will play lightly since China, and friendly nations, also depend on oil and gas from the region.  There will be a diplomatic backlash, and further isolation if the Iranians were belligerents.  This is a card to be played when there are no other alternatives.

In any case, both sides are not stupid.  Despite military posturing, the solution is still a political one, not a military one.  The United States establishment are under no illusions that winning the war at massive cost is not ideal, and not guaranteed.  More likely, they will be pulled into a quagmire against a nation that has a potential military of over a million men, who will fight to the death.  The intelligence community paid attention, and took notes, during the Iran-Iraq War.  The only nations that seem intent on war seem to be Saudi Arabia, and Israel, based on their own strategic calculations.  Binyamin Netanyahu needs a crisis to detract from his own political troubles.  Mohammed bin Salman is ambitious, and aggressive, but he is a hot-headed liability.  The murder of Jamal Kashoggi, and the invasion of Yemen, is ample proof of this.

Quora Answer: Could an Iranian Buy Insurance in Singapore?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Can an Iranian buy insurance in Singapore?”

Conceivably, yes.  However, if it were a life policy, it would be a challenge for such a policy to pass compliance and be incepted.  Beyond the usual factors of underwriting, such as age, demographic, and health, here is also the consideration of political risk, and the concerns of money laundering due to US sanctions.  This means that there are additional reporting standards.

What may mitigate the risk would be the fact the Iranian national is working in Singapore for a substantial period of time, is not a politically exposed person, and his funds can be justified.  Even then, he may be limited to hospitalisation or term plans.  Investment-linked, universal life, and complex insurance policies would likely be declined.

On the other hand, if he is working in a company, and they have a group health plan, there should be no problem for him to be included since the nature of plan means that the risk is spread across the portfolio,

When it comes to general insurance coverage such as professional indemnity, the risk is calculated primarily on professional exposure to claim, not nationality, unless it involves work in Iran, or any sanctioned nation, which would not be covered under the terms of coverage.

Quora Answer: Can Iran Win a War against Saudi Arabia?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Can Iran win a war against Saudi Arabia?”

It would be difficult for there to be a war between Iran and Saudi Arabia.  For one, they do not share a land border.  As such, any conflict will be a naval and aerial conflict.  There will be no taking of territory since neither side has the means to project force over the distance required to take territory within the other side’s borders.  Any conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran would be a proxy war, which is exactly what the conflict in Yemen is, and thus far, Saudi Arabia is losing, and losing badly.

The second point of consideration is that any conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran will not stay between them, but draw in the entire region, as well as world powers.  China and Russia will be on the side of Iran, and the United States will be on the side of Saudi Arabia.  This is a conflict about control of the energy resources of the region.  There will be consequences far beyond the region, and energy prices will spike throughout the world, plunging the rest of the world into an economic crisis.

In a hypothetical conflict, disregarding international alliances and geographic distance, the Saudi military is much smaller than the Iranian, incompetently lead, and with little practical military experience.  The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has acquitted themselves well in the Iran-Iraq War, the conflict against ISIS, and interventions in Syria and Iran.  They have also deployed technical experts in Yemen and Lebanon, and are well appraised of the military capabilities of the GCC.  Saudi intelligence is suspect, and they depend heavily on the Americans and Israelis.  No sane military analyst can see the Saudis winning this by themselves.