The following is
my answer to a Quora question: “How will the scenario be
if there is a coalition war within Southeast Asia; which country will dominate
the region?”
There is no viable scenario where there
will be a coalition conflict within Southeast Asia. Firstly, the nations in the region belong to
vastly different cultures: from Buddhist traditions on the north to Muslim in
the south, with Catholic in the northern part of the archipelago, to animist
far to the east; from a western aligned Singapore and Philippines, to formerly
Eastern bloc aligned Indochina, to socialist Indonesia; from constitutional
monarchies, to city state, to federal governments. There is no real unifying factor.
Secondly, whilst there are border tensions
among all members, they are not significant enough to overcome the shared need
for economic growth and trade. The
unifying factor of ASEAN itself is the recognition that these countries are
stronger as a bloc than as individual nations.
Finally, in the event of such an unlikely
conflict, most of these nations either do not have the necessary force
projection, or militaries large enough to fight multi-front conflicts. For example, Singapore has the most advanced
military. But a war with both Malaysia
and Indonesia would close off both ends of the Singapore Straits, starving it
of supplies. Indonesia has a large army,
but its navy and air force are inadequate to provide the lift to send those
soldiers anywhere safely. They also
cannot establish naval and aerial superiority, which is necessary for an
amphibious landing in force. Malaysia is
stuck between neighbours with stronger militaries. It would quickly disintegrate as a political
entity with military cohesion. But its
terrain is excellent for guerilla warfare and impossible to hold. The Philippines would be a non-factor. It cannot attack anywhere, and it is protected
from direct attack, as an island chain nation.
Continental Southeast Asia would be a bloodbath, from Myanmar to
Vietnam. Thailand would be sandwiched in
between, and squeezed south.
We have to remember that Southeast Asia
straddles one of the most important trade routes in the world. The last time Indonesia threatened to invade
Malaysia, during the Konfrontasi, the US sent a carrier group to the
north of the Malacca Straits, and shut that down. The US, China, Japan and India are not going
to sit quietly while the region goes mad.
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