The following is
my answer to a Quora question: “What are the best options
to invest around $10,000 per month, for the next 30 months? I am interested in getting moderate returns,
but am averse to high-risk.”
“Best options” depend entirely on what the
money is for at the end of the period.
Thirty months is a short investment horizon. Ten thousand dollars a month is a substantial
sum. Aversion to high risk, paired with
a short horizon, narrows the field fast.
The instrument needs to stay liquid.
The return needs to clear inflation.
Most aggressive options fail one test or the other.
Lump-sum investing beats dollar-cost
averaging two-thirds to three-quarters of the time, when the choice is between deploying
a windfall immediately or spreading it out.
That research does not apply here. Someone receiving $10,000 a month has no lump sum sitting idle to
deploy on day one. He is building the
sum over time by necessity, not by choice.
Dollar-cost averaging in this context is simply how the money enters the
market as it becomes available, and it still delivers the behavioural benefit:
it removes the temptation to time entry, and it smooths the average price paid
across thirty separate purchases rather than one.
The Allocation
Put the funds into a mutual fund or
collective investment scheme. Allocate forty
per cent to debt securities for a measure of capital protection. Allocate the remaining sixty per cent to
equity securities, so the return justifies taking on the position at all. A collective vehicle spreads exposure across
sectors and markets, lowering the risk tied to any single market’s fortunes,
and building an immediate balanced portfolio from the first contribution rather
than the fifteenth. The structure stays
liquid throughout, meaning the funds can be withdrawn at the end of thirty
months without penalty.
The Expected Return
At low to moderate risk, expect a return
between 4.5 and 6.5 per cent, managed properly.
Engage a financial services consultant to select the actual funds, since
the general allocation above is a framework, not a stock pick. A pivot toward East Asia, excluding Japan,
remains a reasonable regional tilt for this horizon, given the region’s growth
profile relative to developed markets carrying flatter demographic and earnings
trajectories. It takes real effort to
lose money on an allocation built conservatively, provided it is executed
properly rather than left to drift unmanaged for thirty months.
Terence Nunis | Executive Chairman, Equinox Zenith | Author, The 1% Playbook: The Billionaire Cheat Code

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