Quora Answer: Which Country Will Benefit Most When US Troops Leave Afghanistan?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Which country will benefit the most when the US troops are gone from Afghanistan?” 

The first country to benefit would be Afghanistan.  American involvement in Afghanistan was never about nation building.  The United States does not have a good track record in nation building after the Korean War.  They failed in Vietnam, they failed in the Middle East, they certainly failed in Afghanistan.  It may take years, but we will eventually see some semblance of central governance by the most powerful faction, provided there is no foreign interference.  I would not hold my breath.  Afghanistan is still sitting on more than a trillion dollars’ worth of untapped mineral wealth. 

The next countries to benefit would be Russia. Russia no has a border with Afghanistan, but the Central Asian republics are very much part of the Russian sphere of influence.  The US would still have a base in Uzbekistan, but that is insufficient to contend with Russian influence.  Iran would benefit, since having American troops on its Eastern and Western flank is uncomfortable, and aggressive.  Iran already faces a string of American military installations across the Shat al-Arab and Persian Gulf.  China would benefit because there is an economic vacuum to fill. 

The United States would benefit.  Afghanistan was a black hole in military expenditure.  There was little to gain in a perpetual low intensity conflict.  It detracted the US from a more important theatre – the East Pacific, where China is a rising power.  This withdrawal is about realignment of forces.  China has a border along the restive Xinjiang region.  Americans getting busy in Central Asia would not be contending with China in the South and East China Seas.