The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Will Southeast Asia and South Asia benefit or suffer should the US escalate conflict with China over Taiwan?”
Any American attack on China will crash the global economy, and no
one will benefit. Why do we have idiots
wanting war between the two biggest economies in the world? China is the global factory and the United
States is the global bank. Any war
between these two is a very bad idea for the rest of us.
The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Which global industries and markets will be disrupted the most if
China invades Taiwan?”
If Chine decides to invade Taiwan, it would crash the global economy. China is not Russia. It is the 2nd largest economy in the world. You cannot simply sanction it. China is also the largest manufacturer in the world. That sort of production base cannot simply be replaced. We will have supply chain bottlenecks in every industry and almost every market.
Secondly, the Taiwan Straits is a major waterway for shipping. This is not some poor, largely landlocked, nation in central Europe. Ships cross the North Pacific, from the East Coast of North America to Northeast Asia, and then down to Southeast and South Asia, and back. Cargo from Northeast Asia also comes through the straits, crosses the Indian Ocean, and transits the Suez Canal to Europe. Any disruption to that traffic would have serious consequences to all those markets.
Any conflict involving Taiwan would be a major world war. The United States has given guarantees for Taiwan’s independence. They would be involved. This means American staging areas in South Korea and Japan are targets, bringing those nations into the war. North Korea and Russia will be pulled in, directly, or indirectly. ASEAN would fragment because some of those countries would support China, and the rest would either be neutral or support the United States. China has borders with nations in Central Asia, and would put pressure on them to escalate any low-intensity conflict there to keep American assets busy. China has ports in the Indian Ocean transit, and will disrupt shipping and supplies. The Americans would do the same, and all commercial shipping would come to a standstill. Markets do not react well to such a conflict.
The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Hypothetically, can the US beat China over Taiwan in a war scenario?”
That really depends on what sort of war scenario you mean. If the intent is to stop a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the US will succeed easily. The Taiwan Strait, which separates China from the renegade province is around 160 km wide. The Taiwanese military is of uncertain morale and is thought to lack resilience, but China still needs to secure air and naval dominance to safely send over the invasion force. That is not possible. Taiwan’s military is well under 200,000 active personnel. That means China would need around 300,000 troops just to secure a beachhead and breakout.
You cannot plan to mobilise that many troops and assets quietly. The American will know and the Taiwanese will know. Assets will be moved into the region, and we are likely to see up to three carrier groups, including submarines. The US already has troops and bases in Japan, South Korea and islands in the Pacific West. The Americans also have assets to control the Straits of Malacca, where all the oil needed to feed the war effort is going to pass. All parties know that the US does not need to defeat the Chinese military in its entirety to end the invasion. They simply need to make it very expensive in terms of cost and casualties. A major defeat would seriously dampen the legitimacy of the Communist leadership, and there will be domestic consequences.
China need only wait, and Taiwan will eventually seek a
merger. Even if they were to
successfully invade Taiwan, the cost of integrating the Taiwanese economy would
be astronomical and crash China’s economy.
The Chinese are not stupid.
The following is my answer to a Quora
question: “Why do companies move regional headquarters from Hong Kong to
Singapore, but not Taiwan?”
In the ease of doing business and competitiveness index, Singapore ranks a lot higher than Taiwan. Taiwan used to be one of the Four Asian Tigers, with Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea, but lost its way in the last decade or so, through bad policies, factional politics, and increasing diplomatic isolation.
Secondly, companies consider costs, and Singapore has a lower tax rate than Taiwan for companies and individuals. Taiwan’s corporate tax is higher, and although it does not have a separate capital gains tax, it is factored into the income tax. Singapore does not have a capital gains tax, separate or integrated. Taiwan does have a lower VAT, at 5%, compared to Singapore’s 7% GST. However, this is a consumption tax, and the cost can be passed on.
Finally, Taiwan has a difficult relationship with China, and businesses want access to the Chinese market. Singapore has no such encumbrance, being a wholly sovereign nation, instead of a renegade province. This means Singapore has better access to international banking networks, making it easier to move funds into and out of China. FDI from China may be problematic.
The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Why do Singaporeans believe that using English is essential for their economic survival when several Asian countries, such as Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, have achieved economic success without using English?”
The comparisons are not valid. Singapore is a multicultural nation, and has been so even before independence. If we did not have English as the language of business and governance, it would not have survived the racial tensions, since language is a sensitive matter. None of the main racial groups would countenance the promotion of any one language over theirs. In contrast, all the other nations and territories cited are culturally homogeneous. They do not have multiple languages contending with each other for supremacy.
Secondly, Singapore is a trading nation, more so than any of the others mentioned, barring Hong Kong. English is also widely spoken in Hong Kong. English is the language of international trade. All major centres of international trade have people who are competent in English, and English is the language of transactions, including correspondence and documentation. Without English, we would not have that economic success because, unlike Japan and South Korea, we do not have a population base sufficient to generate growth by itself. We are not a manufacturing hub. We are not an agricultural nation. We are net importers, and we generate our wealth in the entrepôt trade.
