The following is my answer to a Quora question: “What
is something that would cause terror in the world right now?”
If people are smart enough, climate
change should be enough. Most have not
understood the consequences, politically, economically, and in terms of basic
survival.
Coastal Cities and the Water Table
Many coastal cities will become
uninhabitable due to rising tides. The
World Meteorological Organisation projects the population exposed to a 100-year
coastal flood could roughly double if global mean sea level rises 0.75 metres,
and the IPCC estimates over one billion people globally will be exposed to
coastal-specific climate hazards by 2050.
Shanghai, Dhaka, Bangkok, Jakarta, Lagos, Cairo, London, New York, and
Los Angeles all sit on the WMO’s own list of major cities under direct
threat. Rising tides do not merely flood
streets. Saltwater intrusion
contaminates freshwater aquifers, and Bangladesh’s Bhola Island offers a
documented preview: half the island was submerged in 1995, leaving 500,000
people homeless in a single event, with scientists projecting Bangladesh will
lose 17% of its land to climate-driven flooding by 2050. A drowned aquifer does not merely displace
people from their homes. It removes
their drinking water at the same time.
Food, Migration, and Conflict
Changing weather patterns will
adversely affect food supply, driving up the price of staples and producing
shortages. Increased desertification in
continental interiors will accelerate displacement of both animals and
people. Estimates for climate-driven
displacement by 2050 range from the World Bank’s 216 million internally
displaced to the Institute for Economics and Peace’s worst-case figure of 1.2
billion people at risk under combined climate and civil unrest pressure. Even the World Bank’s Groundswell Report, its
most conservative published estimate, projects 143 million people displaced, 86
million from Sub-Saharan Africa alone.
Displacement at this scale strains the resources of even the wealthiest
nations, and it accelerates conflict over water and arable land directly. A 2007 to 2010 drought in Syria, among the
worst in the country’s modern history, drove large-scale rural-to-urban
migration that fed directly into the tensions preceding the civil war,
according to research cited by the Climate Change Academy. Climate change does not need to cause a war
on its own. It only needs to remove the
food and water buffer that was previously keeping an existing tension
contained.
Water, Weather, and the Compounding
Disasters
Climate change will affect ocean
salinity and alter currents, reshaping weather patterns worldwide, producing
drought in some regions and devastating floods in others. As ice melts, atmospheric water content
rises, increasing precipitation intensity.
Heavier rainstorms and snowstorms mean more flash floods, avalanches,
and landslides. A 2022 drought in East
Africa alone left 37 million people facing food insecurity, worsened further by
reduced wheat imports following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a direct
illustration of how climate stress compounds with unrelated geopolitical shocks
rather than arriving in isolation.
This is not the extinction of humanity. It is a measurable rise in death and
suffering, concentrated disproportionately among the nations least equipped to
absorb it, with South Asian economies alone projected to lose 1.8% of GDP by
2050, rising toward 8.8% by 2100. The
greater loss sits beyond the human ledger entirely, in the biodiversity this
trajectory is already quietly erasing, and biodiversity, once gone, does not
come back on any timeline that matters to the people currently deciding whether
to take any of this seriously.
Terence Nunis | Executive Chairman, Equinox Zenith
& Red Sycamore | Author, The 1% Playbook: The Billionaire Cheat Code

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