Quora Answer: What Do Singaporeans Think of AUKUS?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “What do Singaporeans think of AUKUS?” 

From a Singapore perspective, it has negligible impact.  The manner in which Australia conducted its business, and the subsequent drama with France was entertaining.  It does not look well on the current Morrison administration.  It was clumsy, it was without though to the consequence of future relationship with Europe and other allies.  It tells us that Australia cannot be fully trusted to keep to long-term agreements. 

The Australian government has been under pressure on a lot of issues, from non-action in climate change, to the refugee policy, to the COVID-19 strategy.  Scott John Morrison was desperate for anything to show the electorate that they are tough on security to detract from their failures in domestic issues.  For a potential sort-term electoral gain, Australia essentially threw away a trade deal with the European Union.  The next few rounds of negotiations will be tough. 

Those nuclear submarines will not be deployed within the decade.  There is no immediate security impact.  I have some scepticism on the viability of this pivot to nuclear submarines because Australia does not have an existing domestic nuclear energy industry.  Let alone submarines, Australia does not have any of the supporting infrastructure.  All that billions needed to develop that infrastructure must come from somewhere, and the next government might not be brave enough to cut the budget elsewhere to fund this.  After all that fanfare, it might not even take off. 

We must also consider the use of nuclear submarines as opposed to the diesel submarines Australia now fields.  Diesel submarines are far quieter, and more useful for ambush from among the reefs on enemy shipping.  Nuclear submarines are larger, noisier, and are meant for offensive operations, not defensive.  This means a change in doctrine.  Where are they going to deploy them?  They are not going to sit in the Coral Sea.  They are meant to patrol the South China Sea.  That means forward basing arrangements closer to the area of operation, which means concluding an agreement with Singapore for logistics. 

Australia is heavily dependent on the Chinese economy to buy her products.  A confrontational stance with China does not actually benefit Australia.  The US and the UK are too far away to be useful in every regional confrontation, and they are not going to take up any fall off in trade with China. 

In summary, the current Australian administration did this for immediate domestic reasons, not long-term strategic concerns.  They compromised their relationship with the European Union and France for this, and they are not able to field these submarines anytime soon.  It will cost more money than any future government might be willing to pay.  After all that fanfare, we will wait and see if those submarines are every fielded in numbers enough to make it worth the while.