Quora Answer: What are the Pros & Cons of Moving AFRICOM from Germany to West Africa?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “What are the pros and cons of moving the United States Africa Command Headquarters from Germany to West Africa?” 

This conversation began when Muhammadu Buhari, President of Nigeria, raised it.  He wanted Africom to be based in Nigeria.  His reasoning is that it would stabilise the region, and put American troops closer to the instability of the region. 

Having AFRICOM in continent signals greater American commitment to allies and partners in the region.  It brings resources closer to the theatre of operations in a very visible way.  More importantly, it is a public demonstration of American commitment to the commitment in the race with China to secure resources. 

Should the US choose to be based in Nigeria, the most populous and influential nation in West Africa, it will be a boost to their economy, and possibly increase trade relations.  An American base is essentially a city, and a city needs goods and services.  It would be a peg that could stabilise and pacify the immediate region.  That is what the Nigerians are looking for. 

There are several reasons why I believe this is not a good idea, from a strategic and logistics perspective.  These reasons outweigh any benefits of a proposed move.  The first is simply cost.  It would cost billions to build not just the base, but the satellite logistics hubs to supply that base.  And with that massive undertaking is the massive cost of security.  All those ships need a new port, one that no African nation currently has.  All those aircraft need a dedicated air base with at least two runways.  All those personnel need to be housed, with their families, and it would be a massive security risk to house them among the locals, unlike in Germany.  That means building entire neighbourhoods amidst a sea of potential hostiles. 

Secondly, this would be seen to give legitimacy to the Nigerian government, one that has been accused of corruption, genocide, violations of human rights, and stealing an election.  Aside from Ghana, no other country in that region actually has a government of sufficient legitimacy that any American administration wants to be seen supporting.  They played that game in South and Central America, and it will take decades to repair that damage to American credibility.  The actions of these governments have directly fuelled an insurgency that Wahhabis have hijacked, turning regional tribal conflicts into a full blown Islamist rebellion.  Boko Haram and Al-Shabab did not arise in a vacuum.  An American presence would be seen as a form of colonialism, directly ramping up terrorist attacks in the region.  We will see suicide bombings, and attacks on soft targets with even remote links to AFRICOM in the region. 

This will eventually draw the US into a police action throughout the region, sapping resources and political capital back home.  This will actually weaken American resolve to intervene in an actual conflict.  The US military has an abysmal record fighting any form of low intensity conflict.  If American intervention in Iraq and Afghanistan is any indication, this would be an expensive endeavour with little political and strategic gain.  Foreign powers such as Russia and China will take advantage of American strategic failure to increase their influence in the region.  When the Americans have overstayed their welcome, and this will happen quickly, regional powers need a foreign patron. 

Unlike Europe, the situation in West Africa is very different.  Even an African version of the Marshall Plan would fail because the civic pillars to support national development do not exist on a level enough to be a check against corruption.  All that money will disappear into a blackhole of bribes and embezzlement.  AFRICOM is doing just fine where it is.  Stuttgart is in a similar latitude, meaning that the time zone differences are minimal.  Infrastructure and local stability is already in place.  What the Americans are pursuing is a points of light strategy, where there are local FOBs and partnerships with local forces for very specific goals.  This prevents them being sucked into a regional quagmire.