The following is my answer to a Quora question: “What do Singaporeans think of AUKUS?”
From a Singapore perspective, it has
negligible impact. The manner in which
Australia conducted its business, and the subsequent drama with France was
entertaining. It does not look well on
the current Morrison administration. It
was clumsy, it was without though to the consequence of future relationship
with Europe and other allies. It tells
us that Australia cannot be fully trusted to keep to long-term agreements.
The Australian government has been under pressure
on a lot of issues, from non-action in climate change, to the refugee policy,
to the COVID-19 strategy. Scott John
Morrison was desperate for anything to show the electorate that they are tough
on security to detract from their failures in domestic issues. For a potential sort-term electoral gain,
Australia essentially threw away a trade deal with the European Union. The next few rounds of negotiations will be
tough.
Those nuclear submarines will not be
deployed within the decade. There is no
immediate security impact. I have some
scepticism on the viability of this pivot to nuclear submarines because Australia
does not have an existing domestic nuclear energy industry. Let alone submarines, Australia does not have
any of the supporting infrastructure.
All that billions needed to develop that infrastructure must come from
somewhere, and the next government might not be brave enough to cut the budget
elsewhere to fund this. After all that
fanfare, it might not even take off.
We must also consider the use of nuclear
submarines as opposed to the diesel submarines Australia now fields. Diesel submarines are far quieter, and more useful
for ambush from among the reefs on enemy shipping. Nuclear submarines are larger, noisier, and
are meant for offensive operations, not defensive. This means a change in doctrine. Where are they going to deploy them? They are not going to sit in the Coral
Sea. They are meant to patrol the South
China Sea. That means forward basing
arrangements closer to the area of operation, which means concluding an
agreement with Singapore for logistics.
Australia is heavily dependent on the
Chinese economy to buy her products. A
confrontational stance with China does not actually benefit Australia. The US and the UK are too far away to be useful
in every regional confrontation, and they are not going to take up any fall off
in trade with China.
In summary, the current Australian administration
did this for immediate domestic reasons, not long-term strategic concerns. They compromised their relationship with the
European Union and France for this, and they are not able to field these
submarines anytime soon. It will cost
more money than any future government might be willing to pay. After all that fanfare, we will wait and see
if those submarines are every fielded in numbers enough to make it worth the
while.