Quora Answer: What Would Happen to Singapore if the PAP Loses the 2020 General Election?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “What would happen to Singapore if the PAP loses the 2020 General Election?”

The PAP is not going to lose the 2020 general Election.  They may lose a few seats in Parliament, although that is quite unlikely.  We have to consider that although the new slate of PAP candidates is not particularly impressive, the quality of Opposition candidates is a whole level lower.  Opposition candidates such as Paul Anantharajah Tambyah, Tan Cheng Bok, Jamus Jerome Lim Chee Wui, or Pritam Singh are easily as good or better than some PAP candidates.  However, they are not the norm.

If we were to consider the unlikely scenario that the PAP loses, it would not be a landslide, but a loss of Parliamentary majority, with an Opposition coalition in power.  Singapore will lose investor confidence simply because the Opposition do not have enough calibre candidates to fill up a competent Cabinet.  Could any of us imagine someone like Muhamad Faisal bin Abdul Manap as a full minister?  Heaven forbid.

We would have some upheaval within the Civil Service, since after 55 years of PAP rule, the Permanent Secretaries are closely aligned with the PAP.  It would take time for them to realign the goals and strategic objectives of various ministries.  Overall, however, it will be business as usual since it would not be in the interest of the new government to shake the market.

Malaysia is an interesting mirror here.  We had a new coalition, Pakatan Harapan, come to power, albeit with an old face at the helm.  Even then, they wasted all that political capital by infighting, alienating the bureaucracy, and demonstrating their inexperience and incompetence.  That all but guaranteed their failure.  I would expect such an Opposition coalition to fail unless it can form a coalition with the PAP, or a faction of it.