Quora Answer: What Would Happen if the People’s Republic of China Seized Singapore?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “What would happen if the People’s Republic of China seized Singapore like Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin seized Crimea, claiming to protect its majority Chinese population?”

People who ask these fantasy questions obviously do not understand maps.  The distance between Singapore and China is around 3,000 km.  The nearest military staging point is Hainan.  China does not have the lift capability to send enough troops to attack Singapore.  Considering Singapore’s military size, China needs at least 300,000 men just to effect a landing.

China does not have naval superiority here, unless she wants to leave her coast entirely undefended, especially the Taiwan Straits.  China does not have air superiority since she has no air bases in the region, and her naval wing is not operational.  China does not have the logistics capability to go around, through Indonesian waters, if she does not want to fight through the chokepoint at Horsburgh.

All this assumes that the US would happily sit by, and allow China to control the Malacca Straits, and lose a major naval refit station.  This assumes the Five Powers Defence Arrangement does not come into force, and the UK, Australia, New Zealand, and Malaysia just sit and watch.  This also assumes that the RSAF, the most powerful airforce in Southeast Asia, and the RSN, the most potent navy in the region, just sit and wait for a flotilla of PLA troops to just come by and dock.  It would take around six to ten days for the fleet to cross the South China Sea.  Once they pass Hainan airbases’ air envelope, they would be sitting ducks.  There is no rational scenario where China can seize Singapore.  They cannot even seize Taiwan, which is just across the Taiwan Straits.