The Battery Industry in 2026: Where the Money, the Chemistry, & the Carbon Accounting Sit

The electric vehicle battery market is not a single market.  It is four or five overlapping markets, moving at different speeds, and any commentary that treats batteries as one undifferentiated blob is not analysis.  It is marketing copy wearing a lab coat.

The Market, Sized Honestly

Global EV sales are expected to top 20 million units in 2025, roughly triple 2021 levels.  Battery demand is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 17.5% through 2035, with the market index rising from 100 in 2025 to 485 by 2035.  Passenger vehicles account for approximately 65% of total battery volume in 2026, though that share gradually declines to 55% by 2035 as commercial fleet electrification accelerates.  Cost has fallen from over US$1,100 per kilowatt-hour in 2010 to roughly US$130 per kilowatt-hour in 2024, with the industry targeting US$80 per kilowatt-hour by 2030, the point at which total cost of ownership reaches parity with internal combustion vehicles across most vehicle segments.

The Chemistry Breakdown: Where the Real Competitive War is Fought

Lithium Iron Phosphate, LFP, continues gaining share and is projected to reach 50% of passenger EV battery volume by 2030, favoured for cost, safety, and cycle life.  Nickel-rich NMC chemistries retain dominance in premium and long-range vehicles, forecast to hold roughly 46% share in both the European Union and North America through 2030.  The industry is simultaneously pushing toward ultra-high-nickel variants, above 90% nickel content, to lift energy density further while reducing cobalt dependency.

Silicon anode technology is where the genuine engineering gains are happening.  High silicon content anodes can deliver more than 350 Wh/kg, rising to 500 Wh/kg with prelithiation, translating directly into extended vehicle range.  Solid-state batteries remain the industry’s most hyped and least delivered promise.  The global solid-state battery market is projected to grow from roughly US$372 million in 2026 to somewhere between US$2.2 billion and US$3.6 billion by the early 2030s, an eye-catching compound growth rate on a genuinely tiny base.  Toyota Motor Corporation has targeted mass production around 2030, and China’s FAW Group deployed its first semi-solid-state EV battery in February 2026, delivering over 500 Wh/kg at the cell level with a claimed range exceeding 1,000 kilometres.  Impressive on a specification sheet.  Still under 5% of total battery volume through 2035, according to sector forecasts, because manufacturing complexity and cost have not caught up with the marketing department’s enthusiasm.

Sodium-ion batteries were meant to be in mass EV production by 2026.  That timeline has cooled considerably as LFP prices kept falling, and sodium-ion now has to match LFP on cost, performance, and durability simultaneously, a considerably harder target than beating a chemistry that was still expensive when the sodium-ion roadmaps were drawn up.

Where the Industry’s Credibility Problem Sits

Every battery technology claiming a breakthrough energy density, an imminent production date, or a proprietary chemistry that eliminates a critical mineral deserves the same question applied to it: where is the third-party verification, and where is the patent actually registered, checkable, and enforceable?  The sector is littered with companies that have announced production timelines, made energy density claims, and asserted patent ownership that collapsed under basic scrutiny.  A specification sheet is not evidence.  A registered, searchable patent number is evidence.  Anyone evaluating a battery technology claim in 2026 should demand the latter and treat the former as marketing until proven otherwise. 

The EU Battery Regulation, 2023/1542, has turned carbon accounting from a sustainability nicety into a binding market access requirement.  Carbon footprint declarations became mandatory for EV batteries from 18^th February 2025, and expanded to rechargeable industrial batteries above 2 kWh from 18 February 2026.  From 18^th February 2027, that declaration must be accessible through a QR-linked Digital Battery Passport, tracking material composition, carbon footprint, recycled content, and performance data across the battery’s operational life.  Crucially, the declaration applies per manufacturing plant, not per company, and requires third-party verification by a notified body.  Self-declared carbon figures, the report from PSQR notes explicitly, will not survive a 2026 audit cycle.

This changes the financing conversation entirely.  A gigafactory that cannot produce a verified, plant-specific carbon footprint declaration will not access the EU market, full stop, regardless of how compelling its energy density claims are.  That single fact is reshaping where capital flows within the sector.  Financing structured around compliance-grade carbon accounting, rather than voluntary offsets purchased for a sustainability report nobody audits, is becoming the only financing that survives contact with the regulation.  Manufacturers positioning themselves for verified, low-carbon production, with traceable cobalt, lithium, nickel, and natural graphite supply chains, are the ones building a genuine moat.  Manufacturers hoping a voluntary carbon credit purchase will paper over an unverifiable supply chain are building a business that stops at the EU’s border on 18^th February 2027.

The Underlying Trend

The battery market is consolidating around verified performance and verified carbon data simultaneously.  Chemistry innovation without registered patents is marketing.  Carbon claims without third-party verification are liabilities waiting for an audit.  The capital that wins this decade is the capital that priced both of those facts in before the regulation forced everyone else to.

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Terence Nunis | Executive Chairman, Equinox Zenith & Red Sycamore | Author, The 1% Playbook: The Billionaire Cheat Code

Streamlined EV Production

One of the ways we reduce the production and maintenance cost of our electric vehicles is by reducing the number of parts.  It took a talented team many years to successfully reduce the number of parts, and streamline the production process.

Why Building an EV Should Not be So Expensive

The following is extracted from Why building an electric car is so expensive, for now.  I have left the article’s points answers to the questions raised intact, and added what Red Sycamore and Quantum Age Holdings Corporation can do with our product. 

1. Why are EV batteries so expensive?

They said:

Largely because of what goes in them.  An EV uses the same rechargeable lithium-ion batteries that are in your laptop or mobile phone, they are just much bigger to enable them to deliver far more energy.  The priciest component in each cell is the cathode, one of the two electrodes that store and release a charge.  That is because the materials needed in cathodes to pack in more energy are often expensive: metals like cobalt, nickel, lithium and manganese.  They need to be mined, processed and converted into high-purity chemical compounds. 

We say:

Our batteries are produced using existing high-volume manufacturing equipment that has been tested and proven for 30 years.  Our batteries have no anode active materials such as graphite, and we are not involved in anode manufacturing.  As such, formation and aging is significantly reduced.  There are no expensive and difficult-to-produce ceramic separators or solid electrolytes.  The additional system-level benefits of our batteries, due to our material science and technologies involved, reduce weight and volume.  This brings down costs significantly, by around 40-50%.  We do not need to use cobalt, copper foil, aluminum foils and such like. 

2. How much are we talking?

They said:

At current rates and pack sizes, the average battery cost for a typical electric vehicle works out to about US$7,350 (S$10,000).  That has come down a lot – 87% over the past decade, according to BloombergNEF.  But the average pack price of US$156 per kilowatt hour (kWh) - from about US$1,183 in 2010 - is still above the US$100 threshold at which the cost of an EV should match a car with an internal-combustion engine.  That would help trigger mass adoption. 

We say:

Our production takes out expensive processing in traditional electrolytes.  Other batteries have solid electrolytes, which are expensive to process and not compatible with the current lithium ion process and equipment.  This is in contrast with our drop-in solution, inexpensive processing.  Our product is non-flammable and biodegradable.  All these manufacturing elements reduces our costs by 32% to 40% compared to any existing producer in the world.  We own our patents so no one is able to replicate that without us being involved. 

3. How will the batteries get cheaper?

They said:

Costs are not expected to keep falling as quickly, but lithium-ion packs are on track to drop to US$93 per kWh by 2024, according to BNEF forecasts.  To get there, one focus for manufacturers is replacing high-cost cobalt with nickel.  That has a double benefit:  Nickel is cheaper and it also holds more energy, allowing manufacturers to reduce the volume needed.  On the other hand, cobalt’s advantage is that it does not overheat or catch fire easily, meaning manufacturers need to make safety adjustments when they use a substitute.  Panasonic in Japan plans to commercialise a cobalt-free version of a high-energy battery in two to three years; other suppliers already produce lower-energy ones.  There is also attention on the battery packs, often resembling oversized suitcases, that house rows of individual cells.  Simplifying the design, and using a standard product for a range of vehicles - rather than a pack tailored to each model - will deliver additional savings. 

We say:

Our G³ Fireshield™ is a non-flammable electrolyte that provides the safety of a solid electrolyte with the performance of a traditional electrolyte.  Our drop-in process reduces costs tremendously.  We do not need to use all the expensive elements used in traditional electrolytes which have high safety concerns and flammability.  Our batteries cost less than $100/kWh, with some customer feedback putting it as a reported less than $85/kWh.  Our energy density is more than 400 Wh/kg; 1000 Wh/L, and uses our G³ Fireshield™. 

4. Who are the biggest manufacturers?

They said:

Asia dominates manufacturing of lithium-ion cells, accounting for more than 80% of existing capacity.  The majority of that might is in China.  Europe is building new factories and will surpass North America in cell manufacturing starting in 2021, according to Wood Mackenzie.  Overall, the Chinese company Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) shipped the highest volumes in 2019, including batteries bound for power grids and storage systems.  It is a tighter field in the race to supply automakers, where Panasonic led last year.  South Korea’s LG Chem has surged ahead in 2020, capturing about a quarter of the market in the first eight months, according to SNE Research.  Tesla and Panasonic’s joint venture is the biggest battery producer in the US.  Emerging producers include Northvolt in Sweden, founded by former Tesla executives. 

We say:

G³ is the world’s largest graphene producer.  G³ adheres to strict environmental, health and safety procedures.  Graphene is in a new class of advanced nanomaterials.  As the largest global producer of graphene, G³ honours the challenge to set standards not just for technology but for quality as well.  G³ is ISO-9001:2015 certified for the design, development, manufacture and testing of graphene and graphene-enabled products and thermal management materials.  We deliver world changing, life enhancing and cutting edge technologies through graphene-enabled solutions and products through Quantum Age Holdings Corporation globally. 

5. Are all EV batteries the same?

They said:

Lithium-ion technology has dominated the rechargeable-battery sector since it was commercialised by Sony in 1991.  Improvements to lifespan, power, weight and costs have helped the components leap from camcorders to SUVs, buses, and ferries.  While lithium-ion cells, like all batteries, have the same basic components: two electrodes - a cathode and an anode - and an electrolyte that helps shuttle the charge between them, there are differences in the materials used, and that is key to the amount of energy they hold.  Grid storage systems, or vehicles travelling short distances, can use cheaper and less powerful cathode chemistry that combines lithium, iron and phosphate.  For higher-performance vehicles, automakers favour more energy-dense materials, such as lithium-nickel-manganese-cobalt oxide or lithium-nickel-cobalt-aluminium oxide.  Further refinements are seeking to improve range - how far a vehicle can travel before recharging - as well as charging speed, while also balancing factors like fire-resistance.  Recent battery blazes and vehicle recalls have highlighted safety issues. 

We say:

No.  Our batteries exceed next-generation EV requirements by providing an energy density of 400-500Wh/kg.  Refer to our chart here below on all current major players in the market.

6. How else can costs come down?

They said:

There is the manufacturing process itself and the machinery required.  Tesla has commissioned the largest casting machine ever made that will produce the entire rear section of a car as a single piece of die-cast aluminium.  Integrating the battery with a vehicle chassis could also trim the volume of material used.  Electric motors - which account for as much as a 10^th of a car’s cost - should be about 5% cheaper in the next couple of years with improvements to both materials and the electronics that transmit power between the battery, motor and a vehicle's wheels, BNEF says. 

We say:

Tesla cannot produce the performance of the battery with 400-500Wh/kg at this moment in time.  They have the money but do not own the technology and research development team that QAHC has, nor do they have our partnership with MIT.  We have a deliverable product now, and are already manufacturing for our JV partners in Germany and USA.  Our batteries are already cheaper to manufacture, and with growing economies of scale, that will drop further.  Our base materials is carbon, from plants. 

7. So China is in pole position?

They said:

Yes, in almost every aspect, with some key exceptions.  China is responsible for about 80% of the chemical refining that converts lithium, cobalt and other raw materials into battery ingredients, though the metals themselves are largely mined in Australia, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Chile.  China also dominates processes to make battery parts including capacity for cathodes, anodes, electrolyte solutions and separators, BNEF data shows.  But China faces a rare challenge when it comes to advanced semiconductor design and software, components that are increasingly important as vehicles become more connected and autonomous.  Less than 5% of automotive chips are made in China, according to China EV 100, a think-tank.  For example, major players in so-called insulated-gate bipolar transistors include Infineon Technologies and Semikron in Germany and the Japanese companies Mitsubishi Motors, Fuji Electric and Toshiba.  These high-efficiency switches reduce power loss and improve reliability in electric cars. 

We say:

China does not have the technology in battery management and the intellectual property and patents we own to produce batteries.  Nor are they able to reverse engineer our technology which is black boxed and proprietary.  It is validated at MIT and by different organisations that have independently tested and provided reference and test reports on our performance of our batteries.  In contrast, Quantum Motors has an 80-90% reduction in electronics. 

8. Is cost the only hurdle?

They said:

There is still an issue with driving range.  While the most-expensive EVs can travel 640km or more before a top-up, consumers considering more mainstream models remain anxious about how often they will need to recharge.  Automakers and governments have become directly involved in the roll-out of public recharging infrastructure, conscious of a need to allay fears over not finding an electric pump on the go.  Countries from China to Germany to Canada are building charging stations as part of stimulus measures adopted to combat the coronavirus-induced economic slump.  Millions of units are being fitted on highways, in suburbs and at shopping mall parking lots, but distribution is uneven - more than a quarter of all public connectors in the US are in one state, California - and not all chargers are compatible with every EV model.  Most recharging is expected to take place at home, and that means another cost for consumers, with an average price of about US$1,000 per system. 

We say:

Cost, performance, energy density and life span of the batteries is not found in any current lithium ion battery producer anywhere in the world that matches the performance QAHC’s technology.  Our batteries cost 40% or more less overall.  This value will increase logarithmically over the next 18 to 24 months.  We have a head start of 18-24 months and can commence manufacturing within 30-60 days for new clients. 

9. What is around the corner?

They said:

A host of innovations are seen moving from laboratories to production lines by the end of the decade.  California-based Sila Nanotechnologies is adding silicon into battery anodes in place of graphite to allow a single charge to last at least 20% longer.  Toyota Motor and US start-ups, including QuantumScape, are racing to commercialise solid-state lithium-ion batteries, which overhaul a cell’s architecture to replace the flammable liquids that enable charging and discharging with ceramic, glass or polymers.  That is an advance that advocates claim can boost energy storage, lower costs, improve safety and cut recharging times.  CATL is ready to produce a super long-life battery that lasts 16 years and two million km - a typical battery warranty today covers about 240,000km or eight years.  That means a single pack could be deployed in multiple vehicles or for several different tasks.  As early electric cars retire, there is also a fast-developing sector aimed at reusing batteries for less-strenuous tasks, or recycling the metals within them.  Electric vehicles should account for 10% of regular car sales by 2025 and 58% in 2040, BNEF forecasts. 

We say:

Our batteries can last 1 million miles.  After that, we return to factory and refresh them for another million miles.  We are already producing the batteries in limited quantities for our test and pre-production schedule.  Our manufacturing can commence in 20-30 days from get go.  We will at best be able to deliver by year end to customers.  The closest competitor is QuantumScape Inc. who can only deliver a prototype in Q2 of 2023.  We can deliver by end of Q3 of this year, by commencing production in July 2021 onwards.

The Chinese EV Frenzy

China is the largest electric vehicle market in the world, by war.  Adoption rates are staggering, and yet the market is far from saturation.  In that vein, we have had several dozen companies vying for different segments of the market, everything from vehicles to batteries to components.  In addition to major automakers such as Ford, Toyota and Volkswagen, non-traditional players such as Apple, Google and Baidu are there.  Tesla is building a giant factory there, but their market share is not expected to grow appreciably. 

Firstly, almost every player is using some version of lithium ion batteries, which is both a logistics bottleneck, and limited technology.  Since 1991, when Sony and Asahi Kasei released the first commercial lithium-ion battery, that technology has not changed much, and the limitations of these batteries are still apparent.  Additionally, the waste product is toxic, and the mining process is unsustainable. 

Secondly, many of these companies do not have a product ready to market before 2023.  Some of them do not even have a ready prototype yet. 

Quantum Motors, a joint venture between Quantum Age Holdings Corporation and Red Sycamore has models ready for production, based on graphene batteries.  We have a superior product, and we are ready.

Increasing Electric Vehicle Sales in Southeast Asia

There are a few strategies to be implemented at a policy and business level to increase the uptake of electric vehicles.  From a policy level, there needs to be further incentives as part of the government’s energy strategy.  From a business perspective, we need better products.  At the moment, Quantum Motors is ready to put that better product into production, but we need to see concrete moves by the governments in the region.

Electric Vehicle Market Share

In 2020, China sold 1.3 million EVs — 41% of global EV sales.  That number seemed impressive at the time.  It looks quaint now.  China’s NEV market hit approximately 16 million units in 2025, representing nearly 50% of all new cars sold domestically.  BYD alone sold 4.6 million vehicles globally — more than Ford sold in its entirety.  China now controls 69% of the global EV battery market through CATL and BYD combined.  This did not happen by accident.

Tu Le, Founder and Managing Director of Sino Auto Insights, a global mobility advisory firm founded in Beijing in 2017, said, “China’s dominance in EVs is not a product story.  It is a supply chain story, an industrial policy story, and a geopolitical story — with a car on top.”

China's EV push is an industrial policy executed with the patience and precision that Western democracies structurally cannot replicate.  The objective was never to sell more cars.  It was to leapfrog the internal combustion engine — a technology where Germany, Japan, and the United States held century-old competitive advantages — and establish dominance in the next platform before the incumbents could react.  It worked.  China controls the battery supply chain from lithium extraction through cathode chemistry to cell manufacturing and pack assembly.  It controls 80% of global lithium refining capacity, 70% of cobalt processing, and the dominant share of rare earth processing essential for EV motors.  The car is the visible product.  The supply chain is the moat.

Beijing subsidised EV purchases, built charging infrastructure at scale, mandated EV quotas for manufacturers, and provided cheap financing, tax breaks, and preferential land access to domestic producers.  The EU’s anti-subsidy investigation concluded exactly this — and imposed an additional 17% tariff on BYD on top of the standard 10% import tariff.  BYD’s response was to open factories in Hungary, Turkey, and Brazil — manufacturing inside the tariff wall rather than exporting over it.

Tesla’s China market share fell from 6% in 2024 to 4.9% in 2025. EU sales collapsed 38.8% in the first eleven months of 2025.  Tesla’s net profit fell 40.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters.  Its US market share hit an eight-year low of 38% in August 2025 — down from approximately 80% in 2020.  Three forces compressed Tesla simultaneously.  First, Chinese domestic competition intensified beyond BYD — Geely surged 90%, Xiaomi EV grew 200.9%, Huawei-powered models exploded.  The Chinese market became a 150-brand price war that eroded margins across every participant, including Tesla.  Second, Elon Reeve Musk’s political activities generated sustained consumer boycotts in Europe and the United States — Tesla showrooms faced protests, vandalism, and brand damage that no marketing budget could quickly repair.  Third, BYD competed on price at quality parity.  The BYD Seal sits at €42,700 to €48,200 in Europe — comparable to or below equivalent Tesla models — absorbing the EU tariff and still offering competitive pricing.  Battery pack costs fell to $115 per kWh in 2024.  At US$80 to US$99 by 2026, Chinese manufacturers achieve price parity with petrol cars without subsidies.  That eliminates the last structural barrier to mass adoption.

Volkswagen delivered 1.9 million vehicles in China in the first three quarters of 2025 — down 4% — now below its Western European volumes.  VW’s largest single market is contracting as domestic Chinese brands consume its share.  FAW-Volkswagen retail sales fell 4.8% in 2025. European automotive exports to China fell sharply in both volume and value.  The German response — joint ventures with Xpeng and Horizon Robotics, a full R&D centre in Hefei — is the correct strategic direction.  It is also an admission that German automotive engineering alone is no longer sufficient competitive advantage in the world’s largest car market.  Chinese brands now hold 7% of EU market share, up from 5% in 2024.  In May 2025, BYD registered more EVs in Europe than Tesla for the first time.  In February 2026, it did so again.  The tariff wall slowed the entry.  It did not stop it.

Global EV sales are forecast to reach 40 to 50% of total car sales by 2030 — up from approximately 20 million units in 2025.  Chinese automakers collectively commanded 43% of global EV market share through August 2025.  Five Chinese brands — BYD, Geely, SAIC, Changan, and Chery — are expanding across Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa simultaneously.  The geopolitical dimension is explicit.  EV dominance gives China control of the technology platform, the battery supply chain, and the manufacturing cost curve for the primary consumer durable of the next fifty years.  It reduces China’s dependence on Middle East oil — a strategic vulnerability the country has been managing since the 1990s.  And it gives Beijing an export industry that generates trade surpluses without the currency and IP friction that semiconductor and defence exports attract.  China did not enter the EV market to compete with Tesla.  It entered to render the entire ICE-era competitive landscape irrelevant.

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Terence Nunis | Executive Chairman, Equinox Zenith & Red Sycamore | Author, The 1% Playbook: The Billionaire Cheat Code

Electric Vehicles Gaining Acceptance

As people become more environmentally aware, and the technology matures, more people are considering electric vehicles for their next car.  The issue that needs to be addressed is branding the vehicles.  Activism alone does not secure market share.

Electric Vehicles with Lithium Batteries is Not the Solution

Current electric vehicles are not as environmentally friendly as advertised.  Most modern electric vehicles use what is essentially a souped up compound handphone battery.  That means lots of lithium in all those batteries. 

The battery of a Tesla Model S, for example, has about 12 kilogrammes of lithium in it.  The grid storage needed to help balance renewable energy would need a lot more lithium given the size of the battery required.  Because manufacturers are secretive about the technology of their batteries, effective recycling is virtually impossible.  Most of all that lithium ion batteries end up in landfills, where then seeps into the environment as they break down, poisoning the water table and contaminating the land. 

Lithium cathodes themselves degrade over time.  That is why they cannot be placed into new batteries.  Lithium is a rare earth metal, which means it is reactive.  As such, there have been a number of fires at recycling plants where lithium-ion batteries have been stored improperly, or disguised as lead-acid batteries, and put through a crusher.  Not only have these batteries burned at recycling plants, but auto makers are seeing battery-related fires leading to vehicle recalls and safety probes.  Teslas have this unhealthy tendency to explode on impact to the battery, spewing out toxic gas and acid which cannot be put out by water.  Chevy Bolts spontaneously combusted the back seats where the batteries were. 

The mining of lithium is even more environmentally damaging than drilling for oil.  The land is effectively strip mined and rendered useless for everything else.  Lithium extraction uses a lot of water, approximately 2 million litres per metric tonne of lithium.  Miners drill holes in salt flats and pump salty, mineral-rich brine to the surface.  After several months the water evaporates, leaving a mixture of manganese, potassium, borax, and lithium salts, which is then filtered and placed into another evaporation pool.  After from 12 and 18 months of this process, the mixture is filtered sufficiently that lithium carbonate can be extracted. 

There is the potential leak of toxic chemicals, such as hydrochloric acid, from the evaporation pools into the water supply.  In Australia and North America, lithium is mined from rock using chemicals to extract it into a useful form.  Lithium mining has proven negative environmental impact in water sources, streams, the sea and land for hundreds of kilometres around.  Lithium extraction also harms the soil and causes air contamination.  For example, in Argentina’s Salar de Hombre Muerto, lithium mining contaminated streams used by humans and livestock and for crop irrigation, leading to a significant spike in cancers and other disease.  In Chile’s Atacama salt flats, one of the most beautiful places in the world, mountains of discarded salt and canals filled with contaminated water with an unnatural blue hue.  It is estimated that between 2021 and 2030, with this global push towards electric vehicles, about 12.85 million tonnes of EV lithium ion batteries will go offline worldwide, and over 10 million tonnes of lithium, cobalt, nickel and manganese will be mined for new batteries. 

This is not a green solution.  A green solution is electric vehicles using graphene batteries.  Graphene is a near superconductor at room temperature and pressure, powering a vehicle that will have consistently superior performance as the technology matures.  Graphene is made from carbon, which comes from trees.  At Quantum Age, we grow those trees, reforesting hundreds of square kilometres, and harvest them sustainably for the carbon fibre bodies of our vehicles, and the graphene for our patented batteries.  We are that solution; we are the future – a quantum leap in technology.