Quora Answer: Why Does Sweden Have a Higher Percentage of Millionaires Than Singapore?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Why does Sweden have a higher percentage of millionaires than Singapore?” 

The population of Singapore is around 5.5 million.  Of these, the wealth management industry broadly estimates that there are between 270,000 to 300,000 millionaires.  That means around 5.5% of the people in Singapore are at least millionaires.  That wealth is expected to grow by 62% by 2025.  The population of Sweden is 10.3 million.  Sweden has 570,000 millionaires, which means around 7.3% of the population are at least millionaires.  That number is expected to grow by around 13% to 15%.  These numbers do not tell the whole story.  Sweden’s CPI compared to Singapore means that it is a lot more expensive to live there.  That means a millionaire in Singapore would have his money go further.  This is tied to the nature of government. 

Sweden has been a nation state with contiguous territory for over a thousand years.  It has been a major European power for several hundred of those years.  Modern Sweden was established in 1523, with the crowning of Gustav I, born Gustav Eriksson; and the dissolution of union with Denmark.  In contrast, Singapore gained independence in 1965.  It took six decades for Singapore to catch up in wealth, despite the smaller population, and lack of resources.  This can be seen in the nature of the wealth.  Much of Sweden’s high net worth have their wealth tied to real estate and land.  In contrast, a larger proportion of Singapore’s wealthy, while they do own land, actually gained their wealth through entrepreneurship.  The market fundamentals are different. 

That being said, while the number of wealthy is expected to grow as a percentage of the population, it pales in comparison to Asia in general.  Western Europe is a place of developed economies, meaning the GDP growth has slowed.  Asia is a place of growing economies, meaning that GDP growth is higher.  That means the percentage of wealthy will continue to outstrip that of Europe in the near future.

Quora Answer: Do Financial Planners Play a Role in Helping Clients Prepare Wills?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Do financial planners play a role in helping clients prepare wills?” 

The financial consultant does not prepare the will per se.  He advises the client on estate planning, and that goes beyond the will.  This depends on the assets and their ownership structure, since some assets are owned directly, and some are owner through vehicles such as companies and trusts. 

Insurance policies can be nominated.  This bypasses the probate process, and the proceeds go directly to the beneficiaries.  Assets that are jointly owned, such as the bank account and property would revert to the surviving owner.  An exception is when there is a successful creditor claim.  Assets in companies become part of the estate, and are covered under the will.  Assets in testamentary trusts are subject to the terms of the trust document, and distributed to the beneficiaries accordingly, or as amended by the trustees, within their discretionary powers detailed in that trust document.  All other assets are part of the estate. 

The role of the financial consultant is to work with the lawyer, the relationship manager, and perhaps, the tax consultant, to identify gaps in the estate, and what the client wishes to leave to specific beneficiaries, and propose insurance policies or other means to address them.  Depending on where the assets are in the world, there are considerations such as local taxes, currency exposure, political exposure and other forms of risk to be mitigated.

Market Sentiment: Buy or Sell

Market sentiment is not based on analysis or logic, but the emotions of the crowd.  It is essentially meaningless.  It is a beast to be ridden to advantage at times, or a distraction to be avoided.  Investment should be treated as a science, and not a lottery.  There is a clear difference between an investor, and a gambler.

04th Quarter 2021: Market Outlook

The following is my market assessment for the quarter.  I have tried to simplify it as much as possible.  However, market conditions are unprecedented in our era, and there is much to consider when balancing your portfolio.  This report has been pit together based on information provided by our own fund managers. 

The key points of note pertain to the effects of the pandemic on the global economy.  The Delta variant now makes up most of new cases globally.  Since the start of July, the global effective reproduction number has been north of the 1.0 threshold and climbing steadily upward, indicating the spread of COVID-19 is back to exponential growth.  Regardless, current economic recovery remains highly policy driven, especially with Delta infections likely to extend the progress of reopening and the uncertainty around the variant continues to weigh on market sentiment.  At the moment, relative valuation continues to favour equities over bonds and debt instruments, and the gap has widened given lower Treasury yields and improving earnings.  I expect this to ease as the Federal Reserve becomes hawkish on inflation, and raise interest rates.  At the moment, inflation in the US is 4.2%, which is well above their 2% threshold.  In the last quarter, all funds underperformed the benchmark due to the volatile market.  The market rotated from growth to value stocks in that period, and will take time to catch up.  However, since inception, all the funds have outperformed their respective benchmarks due to a higher asset allocation towards equities. 

The Delta variant now makes up most of the new cases globally.  While the spread of COVID-19 is back to exponential growth, both hospitalisation and fatality rates appear to be manageable compared to previous waves, for countries with high vaccination rate.  As such, there is no reason to expect the global economy to return to the tight lockdowns we saw back in March and April 2020.  Governments are incentivised to accept gradual lifting of restrictions even though cases continue to climb. 

Economic recovery remains on track in major economies despite market expectations are adjusting from elevated levels.  The service sector is recovering strongly at a global level thanks to the combined efforts of easing social distancing measures, active policy support, and vaccine rollout globally.  Additionally, with solid manufacturing activity, this should lead to strong economic growth in the remainder of the year, supporting the prospects of risk assets.  Inventories will be restocked when supply-chain disruptions are eased, providing additional tailwind to activity.  China is expected to be an exception among the major economies due to strict lockdown of provinces where there are cases.  The same applies to Hong Kong.  With China’s growth slowdown, its first mover advantage is fading when the cycle matures.  Recent policy actions should alleviate some of the concerns.  Overall, since vaccines are still highly effective in reducing severe COVID-19 illness and fatalities, countries with high vaccination rates should see a clear divergence in economic performance and inflation trajectory compared to those with low vaccination rates.  Vaccinations remain key to the broader reopening process. 

Inflationary concerns have receded over the past couple of months.  Inflation is elevated only in a few countries, and in the case of the US, it is mostly concentrated in goods and services sensitive to COVID-19 and the subsequent reopening of the economy.  In China, producer price inflation has likely peaked on the back of stabilising commodity prices, while consumer prices remain benign.  Therefore, anticipated rapid rise in inflation prints is likely transitory in nature. 

On company fundamentals, Q1 earnings season ended on a high note with over 85% of S&P 500 constituents reported earnings surprise.  The strong momentum looks to be carried on into Q2/  Out of the companies reported earnings so far, the magnitude of surprise is also stellar at near 20% on average.  Additionally, we can reasonably anticipate strong share repurchase activities for this year, with the announced share buyback so far beating the last 3-year average in the US markets.  These factors would provide additional tailwinds to developed market equities going forward under this ample liquidity environment. 

The outlook for Asian equities is less rosy for the moment.  Chinese equities continue to soften on the back of rising uncertainty from the regulatory scrutiny over key sectors.  Additionally, there is a fear of cascading corporate debt default lead by the impending collapse of Evergrande Group.  Although the ongoing structural reforms of capital markets could be positive to the markets in the long run, investors are pricing in a higher risk premium in the near term.  Outside of China, in major ASEAN markets barring Singapore, sentiments are largely weighed by the renewed COVID-19 infections from Delta combined with relatively low vaccination rates in these economies.  Meanwhile, momentum in Taiwanese and Korean equities is receding as the upcycle in electronics and chips manufacturing is gradually priced in. 

The current recovery remains highly policy driven, especially with Delta infections likely to extend the progress of reopening and the uncertainty around the variant continues to weigh on sentiment.  Policymakers will have to keep accommodative policies for some more time.  Managing the transition between ultra-loose economic policies and a sustainable setting continues to be the focus of the markets.  The Federal Reserve continues to maintain its accommodative stance.  Jerome Hayden Powell, 16^th chair of the Federal Reserve, reiterated the view that recent inflationary pressures are likely to prove transitory and acknowledged that the Fed will continue its discussions about tapering in coming meetings with “advance notice” on any tapering decision.  Similarly, the European Central Bank (ECB) remains its dovish stance with no sign of moderation in Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) purchases and expects interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels until inflation reaching 2% well ahead in their forecast horizon of 2 to 3 years. 

In Asia Pacific, there have been some notable changes to central banks’ stance.  Notably, the Peoples Bank of China (PBoC) surprised the markets with an unexpected cut in reserve requirement ratio (RRR) in July, and future policy guidance is expected to be on the dovish side as the recovery continues.  Apart from the Delta infections and the idiosyncratic risks in Asia and China as briefly mentioned above, I am cognisant of the other risks in the system.  These risks should not derail the overall direction of relative performance between equities and fixed incomes, and within equities, developed markets versus East Asia and emerging markets. 

For this quarter, fixed income allocation has the following focus.  Treasury yields declined recently on the back of reduced inflation compensation.  The eventual path tapering of asset purchases should put a dampener on Treasury performance.  With US investment-grade default rates below historical averages, downside risk remains low.  However, limited upside for US investment-grade credit is expected, given the tight spread range and its higher sensitivity to interest rate movements.  Comparatively, Asian credit remains more attractive as spreads widened while default risks appear to remain stable.  Spillover risks from certain distressed Chinese corporates remain contained. 

Equities to continue to perform reasonably well against bonds.  More specifically global equities should continue their run relative to fixed income, likely driven by developed markets.  Major central banks remain accommodative for the time being, with any tapering discussion appearing to be well communicated with the markets.  In the US, reported earnings and sales continue to surprise on the upside with magnitude trending upward.  Strong buyback activities likely provide additional tailwinds.  Within equities, I am cautiously neutral on Asian equities given the region-specific headwinds including China’s regulatory scrutiny and low vaccination rates in ASEAN countries, except Singapore. 

Concerns surrounding the Delta variant remains our focus as governments are attempting to adapt to the new normal of living with the endemic COVID-19.  Relative valuation continues to favour equities over bonds and credits, and the gap has widened given lower Treasury yields and improving earnings.  Agility on adding or trimming equity in correction or for profit taking is necessary to balance the return potential against risks.  The factors driving recent weakness in Asian equities, could potentially provide a good entry point in the region. 

While our investments are all made with a long-term outlook, our portfolio performance has been delivering positive returns since inception.  There have been mixed results in the short term, but as the market turns, they will balance out, since the emphasis is on the long-term investment horizons.  During the quarter, our funds have continued to remain overweight to equities for the Adventurous, Balanced and Conservative Funds, adding to the outperformance since inception.  The global recovery is stemming from the flood in liquidity through fiscal and monetary policies.  The lifting of lockdown restrictions around the world is still very much on track even after the recent two months of rising Delta infections.  New waves of infections from further coronavirus mutations will only delay the recovery, but not completely derail the reopening narrative.  Global and regional economies cannot afford to remain closed. 

Baillie Gifford’s Iain McCombie, sub-manager of the AIA Global Quality Growth Fund, shared his views on stock picking fundamentals, the macroeconomic environment, and short-term volatility. 

Baillie Gifford has a long-term growth investment thesis for the AIA Global Quality Growth Fund.  What are the advantages of this strategy in the current cycle? 

The environment this year provides strong evidence for why a strategy based on market timing and economic forecasting is fraught with challenges.  At the beginning of this year, “re-opening” stocks came into vogue as the expectations of a strong and sharp economic recovery gathered pace.  As the number of COVID-19 cases has spiked again, the shine has been taken off these re-opening beneficiaries in favour of more defensive names.  It would be fantastic if we could accurately predict the see-sawing of the market between these two poles, but we think that it would be near impossible to do consistently.  Instead, we seek to own a small number of the world’s most exceptional growth companies.  These are structurally advantaged businesses with differentiated cultures and large markets to grow into. 

Ultimately, portfolio positioning is driven by our bottom-up stock picking and is reflective of where we are currently finding the most attractive growth opportunities on a 5-10 year view.  Key portfolio themes that emerge would include: climate and the energy transition, the opportunity in innovative healthcare, and the new wave of technology companies supporting entrepreneurship by offering “scale as a service” – this includes companies like Amazon Web Services, Shopify and Twilio which are helping to level the playing field between the largest and smallest, essentially lowering the barriers to entrepreneurship. 

What are the key risks that might derail your long term growth investment thesis? 

There is a lot of time and effort spent by market commentators on the likely risks created by rising interest rates and inflation.  Higher rates have traditionally been bad for equities, and growth equities in particular, because a larger proportion of their earnings lie further into the future, so a higher discount rate means a lower present value. 

However, within the Global Quality Growth Fund we would highlight a clear preference for companies with strong balance sheets - many holdings have net cash, pricing power and a market leadership position which should, on average, leave them better positioned than rivals in this type of environment.  For example, software businesses that operate subscription models rather than one-time only charges, and companies like Alibaba, Netflix and Amazon have illustrated that their customers stick with them even when they put prices up. 

So, we are pretty relaxed about the potential for a modest uptick in rates and inflation going forward.  The main reason we are unconcerned is that we are much more interested in how the world might look a decade in the future.  We are currently seeing a level of economic disruption that perhaps only presents itself once a century, so if our vision of the world in the 2030s is even close to correct – a world where there is abundant clean energy, where vast amounts of data is thrown off by innumerable connected devices, and where technology and healthcare collide to significantly improve the quality of people’s lives – then a bit of near-term inflation will seem insignificant in the context of the long term gains we can make for clients by looking past seemingly high near term valuations and investing around these structural megatrends. 

What are some of the recent portfolio developments and the rationale behind them? 

Perhaps one of the most exciting themes emerging in the portfolio at the moment is in healthcare.  Some have predicted that the 21^st century will be the century of biology, as our increasing ability to analyse and understand human diseases at the genetic level leads to a transformation in medicine.  This potential exploded into the public consciousness during 2020 with the rapid development of COVID-19 vaccines.  Famously, it took Moderna, which is not held in the Global Quality Growth Fund, just four days to create its version: two days for Illumina, a longstanding holding in the Fund, to sequence the coronavirus genome, then two days for Moderna to apply its technology to the problem. 

We firmly subscribe to the view that we are on the cusp of something quite extraordinary in healthcare and the Fund has been gradually increasing its exposure in this area.  Alongside current holdings Illumina, Staar Surgical and Denali Therapeutics, we have recently taken a new position in 10X Genomics, which develops instruments and consumables for the analysis of single cells, and added to the holding in Exact Sciences, which offers molecular cancer diagnostic tests.  We also own firms looking to improve the efficiency of new drug discovery and development, such as Dassault Systèmes, a software company that helps with the design and development of new products, and Codexis, a protein engineering company that creates custom enzymes. 

Since our clients are mostly Asia based, how does Billie Gifford identify companies with high quality growth potential in the long run given the idiosyncratic differences from this side of the world? 

At Baillie Gifford, we have been investing across the globe since our inception in 1908.  Indeed, our very first investments as a firm were in the rubber plantations of Malaysia, predicated on the growth of the car industry in the US.  The key point being, as investors, we have always retained a global outlook in our approach, married with a willingness to remain open-minded to different business models and consumer preferences emerging from different parts of the world. 

A case in point is China.  Many investors have and continue to view China largely through a Western prism.  How often have we heard the descriptions: “Alibaba is the Amazon of China” and “Meituan is China’s Grubhub”?  The danger with these lazy comparisons is that firstly they ignore the scale differences between the US and China, but they also infer that these are copycat businesses.  The reality, however, is that many of China’s internet businesses are leading rather than lagging on the innovation front.  The deep relationships we have been able to build with companies across Asia over the past few decades has helped immensely in educating us on these rapid developments and cultural differences. 

In addition, the emphasis we place on alternative sources of information in our research process has also been hugely helpful.  Rather than relying on traditional, financial sources of information which are typically short-term and US and Europe centric, we have spent the last couple of decades cultivating alternatives that we believe help us to see the world differently, expand our horizons, and help us generate value for clients.  Within China, as an example, these relationships span industrial and market experts but also experts within academia.  We sponsor the University of Oxford’s China Centre and have developed a relationship with Tsinghua University’s Computational Biology Department.  We are also continuing to grow and develop our own Shanghai investment research office.  Having an on-the-ground presence will help to deepen existing relationships with companies we own, get closer to exciting growth companies of the future, and provide a cultural lens to enhance and challenge existing perspectives.

$670,000 Loss: A Cautionary Tale

In this case study, there are two contentions here.  The first is that the investment banker, the client’s relationship manager, recommended an investment that was not through the bank, but in his own personal capacity.  In effect, this is contrary to MAS guidelines, and is disallowed.  The relationship manager was remiss in his advice.

The second is that the investor is not honest in his claims as well.  It is likely that he put his money there out of greed, the promise of a return of 8%, without considering the risk.  His claim that he signed the documents without reading them is also unlikely, considering his instruction to the bank.  His claim that he had a low risk profile was further contradicted by his own investment history, and his decision to put money into a company, instead of an index of fund. 

For investors, there are two primary lessons here.  The first is to put in the effort to get a good financial advisor or relationship manager.  This requires a deep conversation, and some due diligence on their part.  The second is to consider the risk of every investment, and read the relevant financial documents before signing them. 

This is the article: Man's $670,000 Investment Loss, a Cautionary Tale, dated 12^th September 2021. 

SINGAPORE - There are plenty of cautionary tales about mishaps in the financial world, but few come with a price tag of $670,000 plus tens of thousands of dollars in legal fees.  This sorry saga began in 2017, when a bank customer, Mr. Andy Poh, plunged headlong into an investment on the recommendation of a bank relationship manager at UOB at the time. 

Mr. Poh sunk US$500,000 (S$670,000) into a British investment company to supposedly earn 7 to 8% of annual returns through its business of giving loans to big institutions.  He did not read the documents he signed but still invested in the company because he had relied on what bank relationship manager, Ashley Wong, supposedly told him - that the company PixelTrade would continue to do well and that Mr. Wong's own colleagues were allegedly also dealing with the firm. 

Mr. Poh viewed Mr. Wong as his friend, as he had made substantial bond investments with the bank through his help and guidance.  But about a month after he completed his transfer of funds to PixelTrade, the Monetary Authority of Singapore put the company on its Investor Alert List in January 2018 to caution the public that it was not licensed to do business here.  Mr. Poh tried to recover his money, but when this proved futile, he lodged a police report against PixelTrade in October that year.  Mr. Wong had resigned from UOB by then due to personal reasons. 

As it turned out, Mr. Wong had recommended the company to Mr. Poh on his own, without the bank's knowledge because PixelTrade products had nothing to do with UOB.  Mr. Poh tried to get back his money from PixelTrade, and Mr. Wong, who knew “the main person” at the company, helped to arrange a meeting.  That attempt also failed, so Mr. Poh asked UOB’s senior management “to find a way” to recover his hard-earned cash.  A UOB team met Mr. Poh to discuss the situation, but no compensation was offered because the investment was not made with the bank; Mr. Poh had dealt with PixelTrade directly and signed its documents. 

Mr. Poh’s next step was to file a lawsuit, claiming that Mr. Wong had defrauded him by making various false representations about investing in PixelTrade.  But the suit was directed not at Mr. Wong, but UOB, on the basis that as it was Mr. Wong’s employer, it was liable for his alleged fraud.  Mr. Poh also claimed that UOB had been negligent in not protecting him against the loss of the money that he had transferred to PixelTrade.  But his case was dismissed by the High Court last year.  Mr. Poh appealed, and the case was heard by two judges of the appellate court recently.  Their decision last month upheld the High Court ruling on the case. 

Mr. Poh’s main argument was that he was misled by Mr. Wong into thinking that PixelTrade was a UOB-approved investment, which was why he put in so much money.  When Judicial Commissioner Andre Maniam heard the case in the High Court, he found that Mr. Poh had failed to prove the manager had indeed said that, noting that he was no novice investor.  Just before he bought into PixelTrade, Mr. Poh had made four bond investments with UOB, and he had to sign bank documents.  If PixelTrade were indeed a UOB investment, he would also have signed similar documents.  But in this case, he had signed PixelTrade’s own documents and transferred money to it and not to UOB. 

“Indeed, Mr. Poh’s case is contradicted by the documents which he received from UOB and PixelTrade, all of which he claimed he did not read even though he had signed them and returned the signed copies to UOB and PixelTrade,” noted the judge, adding that Mr. Poh was clearly negligent in “blindly” investing hundreds of thousands of dollars. 

“Mr. Poh says that if he knew the contents of the documents, he would not have signed them.  The short answer to that is: Mr. Poh should have read the documents, and if he did not agree with the contents, he should not have signed them,” the judge added.  Judicial Commissioner Maniam also noted other evidence that would have alerted Mr. Poh that PixelTrade was not a UOB investment - UOB sent him trade confirmations for his bond purchases, but there was no such confirmation for his PixelTrade investment. 

During the trial, Mr. Poh said that he was very “risk-averse” and that he would not have bought into PixelTrade but for that fact that he was misled into thinking UOB was selling it.  But this was contradicted by his own investment record with UOB because he had signed documents on “understanding your investment decision”, and such documents stated that even the bonds that he bought were not risk-free.  For instance, his wealth planning document, dated 04^th October 2017, stated: “I want to maximise my return.  I am comfortable with taking significant levels of fluctuation to the value of my investments, including the possibility of losing more than my initial investments.”  Mr. Poh said that he just signed documents whenever they were given to him without reading them, even though they warned customers not to sign if they did not understand the contents. 

The judge also looked at Mr. Poh’s police report against PixelTrade.  The report focused on the company and made no mention that Mr. Wong had deceived Mr. Poh into thinking his investment in PixelTrade was “UOB-approved or UOB-guaranteed”.  “If Mr. Wong had defrauded him, Mr. Poh would surely have told the police that,” noted the judge, who concluded that Mr. Poh had known all along that PixelTrade had nothing to do with UOB.  Judicial Commissioner Maniam said that as a frequent investor, Mr. Poh should have known that even bonds issued by banks or financial institutions were not risk-free.  “Indeed, Mr. Poh went on to purchase 10 more bonds from UOB, after he had been informed that his PixelTrade investment was not a UOB-approved investment product,” he noted.  “Those 10 bonds, like the first four he invested in, were neither risk-free nor guaranteed by UOB, but that did not deter him.” 

Mr. Poh’s claim that the bank was negligent in transferring his money to PixelTrade was dismissed as well, with the judge saying that the transfers were according to his instructions to UOB.  The bank had no duty to ensure that Mr. Poh did not lose money by investing in PixelTrade, simply because bank transfers were common transactions for many purposes.  “To take a simple example, if a customer remits money to buy gold, a bank is under no duty to check whether that is a good purchase or investment, let alone to reimburse the customer for any losses if the price of gold falls,” Judicial Commissioner Maniam ruled.

The Origin of “Mayday”

“Mayday” is an emergency procedure word used internationally as a distress signal in voice-procedure radio communications.  It is used to signal a life-threatening emergency, primarily by aviators and mariners.  In some countries, firefighters, police forces, and transport organisations also use the term.  Convention requires the word be repeated three times in a row during the initial emergency declaration: “Mayday, mayday, mayday”.  This is to prevent it being mistaken for some similar-sounding phrase under noisy conditions, and to distinguish an actual mayday call from a message about a mayday call. 

It is a French word, meaning, “help me”.  In English, we spell it the way it sounds, but the French spelling is “m’aider” but it is pronounced the same. 

The mayday procedure word was conceived, by Frederick Stanley Mockford, as a distress call in the early 1920s.  He was the officer-in-charge of radio, at Croydon Airport, England.  He had been asked to think of a word that would indicate distress and would easily be understood by all pilots and ground staff in an emergency.  Since much of the air traffic at the time was between Croydon and Le Bourget Airport in Paris, he proposed the term “mayday”, the phonetic equivalent of the French “m’aidez”, “help me”, or “m’aider” which is a short form of “venez m’aider”, “come help me”.  The new procedure word was introduced for cross-Channel flights in February 1923.

Swedish “Gift”

In Swedish, “gift” has two meanings: “married” and “poison”.  How appropriate.

Spanish & “S” Words

In Spanish, the “s” sound cannot stand alone at the beginning of a word.  It is always an “s” blend such as “espalda” or “esta”.  This is why Spanish speakers add an “e” to the beginning of words beginning with the letter “s” in English.  For example, they would say “esquid” instead of “squid”.

Results are In or Out

The phrase “Results are out” is used for results of tests and examinations, while “Results are in” is used for election results.

Ordering Latte in Italy

The word “latte”, which English speakers use when referring to coffee with milk, actually means “milk” in Italian.  If you order a “latte” in Italy, they would serve you milk.  If you want coffee with milk in Italy, you should order a cappuccino instead.

Identifying Bad Leaders

Just as it is important to identify good leadership to be nurtured and emulated, it is important to identify bad leadership, and either address it, or avoid these failures.  Leadership is not authority.  Leadership is not titles.  Leadership is a process.  That process is the science of maximising resources and the efforts of subordinates, by providing them with a common vision, and a map to move towards that vision, while creating the foundation for continued success.  This means developing the people we lead. 

One of the key indicators of bad leadership is failure to recognise the good work of others.  This is borne of arrogance and ignorance.  This also happens when people acquire authority beyond their abilities and are unable to understand the work put into projects and making things run.  Another reason is not so much failure to recognise good work, but insecurity that treats good work of subordinates as a threat to his authority.  Leaders like these do not engender loyalty.  Managing people means having an instinctive grasp of psychology of people.  People who receive recognition and praise increase their productivity, they increase their engagement, and are more likely to commit.  This job satisfaction is paid forward in better customer interaction. 

Another quality of bad leadership is disrespect of people.  A bad leader is rude and disrespectful to subordinates.  Examples of this behaviour include shifting blame to subordinates, refusing to take responsibility for the actions of his team, disparaging them to colleagues in their absence, criticising them in front of their peers, and refusing to exercise decision making.  This is a lack of integrity.  People like these cannot be trusted. 

Bad leaders are typically terrible communicators.  They say too much, they say too little, they send the wrong message, or they refuse to provide clear direction.  This is tied to a refusal to take responsibility, low self-esteem, or simply having no discernible direction.  These are leaders of the status quo. 

Coming back to the lack of integrity, leaders such as these cultivate some at the expense of others, and exercise favouritism.  They make questionable decisions, and while they may not be dishonest with regards financial gain or personal benefit, they are not honest with their management.  Such leaders leave behind cliques and infighting.  In such an environment, promotion and advancement is determined less about qualification and accomplishment, and more about relationship with the right people. 

Identifying bad leadership is merely the first step in a process.  Once it has been identified, it must be addressed.  Depending on the nature of the organisation, this process may be complex.  It varies from non-profit to profit, from corporate to command hierarchies, from private sector to public sector.  There is no one way.  Addressing it depends on our position in the hierarchy and relative power in the system.  All that said, forewarned is forearmed.

Facetious Vowels

“Facetious” is the only word in the English language where all the vowels appear in the correct order.

Dutch “Dutch”

In the Dutch language, “Dutch” means German.

“Umbrella”

Toastmasters would understand: The “umbrella” was originally going to be called “brella”, but the inventor hesitated.

“Porn” Names

The word “porn” is a Thai-English false friend.  When we use “porn” in a Thai context, it means a sacred blessing.  This explains why many Thais have “porn” in their name.  An example would be “Pornsak”.

“Orange” Used to be “Norange”

Words evolve in interesting ways.  The word “orange” was originally “norange”, but because we could say “a norange”, it gradually lost the “n”, and we could eventually say “an orange”.  That’s why it is still “naranja” in Spanish.

“Girl” Used to be Genderless

The word “girl”, in English, was not initially used to refer to a specific gender.  It used to mean “child” or “young person” regardless of the gender.  The word originated circa 1300, from “gyrle”, meaning “child”, or “young person” of either gender, but more frequently females.  The origin is said to be Low German, but that is uncertain.  It is speculated that it came from unrecorded Old English “gyrele”, from Proto-Germanic “gurwilon-“, a diminutive of “gurwjoz”, which apparently also represented Low German “gære”, Norwegian dialectal “gorre”, Swedish dialectal “gurre”, all meaning some variation of “small child”. 

“Girl” does not go back to any Old English or Old Germanic form.  It is part of a large group of Germanic words whose root begins with a “g” or “k” and ends in “r”.  The final consonant in “girl” is a diminutive suffix.  The “g-r” words denote young animals, children, and all kinds of creatures considered immature, of low value, or past their prime. 

It is only from the late 14^th century where it acquires the specific meaning of “female child”.  From the mid-15^th century, it was applied to any young unmarried woman.  From the 1640s, it was used as a term of endearment, meaning “sweetheart”.  As recorded from 1826, “old girl” was used in reference to a woman of any age.

Delivering a Great Business Presentation

Steven Paul Jobs, the late founder of Apple, was the master of the business presentation.  When he spoke, Apple stock surged.  When he gave an opinion, it moved the market.  Even though he was not a Toastmaster, he delivered like one.  That is because he used the same techniques we use in Toastmasters, except that he did it better. 

Nothing in a great presentation is spontaneous, even when it looks like it.  Every pause, every pause filler, everything in between, is for effect.  Every hand gesture, every look, every movement, is deliberate.  The best speakers make any presentation look natural because a lot of work is out into perfecting that delivery.  That means practice, practise, practise.  With constant practise, there is less chance for mistakes. 

Lawrence Edward Page, one of the co-founders of Google, is the originator of the “Gospel of 10 x”.  This is found in many business blogs and books.  Most companies would be happy to improve a product by 10%.  However, Page reasoned a 10% improvement is too incremental to be differentiate a company from its competitors.  He expects his people at Google to create products and services that are ten times better than the competition.  A thousand percent improvement requires rethinking problems, and reworking things from the fundamental processes. 

Committing to 10x improvement in presentation is not just about rehearsing the pitch, but relooking how it is received.  It is not about what we say, but what the audience hears.  It is about mastery of the correct rhetorical devices.  It is about practising it again, and again, and again, until we can do it in our sleep.  In the world of business, this means closing that deal, it means securing funding, it means an increase in share value, it means whatever we set out to achieve to move the audience and get the buy in we require, whether customer, or investor, or regulator, we put forth a convincing performance married to a compelling argument.  If those things do not motivate us, then we have no business doing that presentation for the business. 

The first 30 seconds of a presentation is the most important.  If we do not seize the attention of the audience, if we do not pique their curiosity, if we do not inflame their desire to be part of our process and success, we have lost them, and the presentation is a waste of time.  It is very important to start with a strong opening, a compelling opening statement.  This sets the stage for the entire presentation.  The last 30 seconds is the call to action.  After all that was said and done, often a lot was said, and nothing was done.  If this is the case, then the presentation is a failure.  There must be a call to action, and this call to action must come back to that opening statement as a form of reinforcement.  An opening statement presents the contention, the problem to be addressed.  The body of the presentation presents the solution, and explains it.  The closing is the call to action to adopt that solution.  That is the pitch. 

The presentation itself must sound credible, and concise.  Effective communication is about speaking less to mean more, not flooding the time with words.  If you can say it in three words, do not use five.  If you can say it in five words, do not use ten.  It is important to relook the sentences, and any words that can be eliminated without losing the flavour and the intent of the passage should be eliminated.  This means removing all filler words. 

It is important to embrace the pause, the uncomfortable silence between points and contentions, and own it.  The audience needs time for their emotions to catch up, and feel.  The audience needs time to understand the depth of what is being presented, so that they can recognise that need – a need that the presentation proposes to address. 

When practising a presentation, it is important that we stimulate the stress of a real presentation.  This means presenting before a crowd.  This means delivering the same presentation to different crowds.  And then nothing their reaction, and tweaking it until it is ready.  This also means presenting to a difficult audience with all the attendant interruptions and distractions, from people talking to handphones ringing to people moving in and out of the room. 

One of the things that presenters often fail to prepare for is the questioning.  Business presentations have a question and answer segment, and we must be prepared for those difficult questions.  A great presentation can be undone with a poor performance in the question and answer segment or panel discussion. 

It is important to record the rehearsals and pay attention to several things: body language, vocal variety, and how the stage is used.  Body language refers to economy of movement, and deliberateness of gestures.  It is important to look out for nervous tics, superfluous movements, and unnecessary pacing.  The presenter is meant to be the centre of the audience’s universe, the point of stability.  Any movement is solely for effect, whether it is narrative pacing, or for emphasis of specific points.  A speaker who moves too much loses credibility and looks less convincing.  The stage must be used deliberately. 

Vocal variety is about slowing down the number of words per minute.  Speak too fast, and we look nervous, uncertain, or simply undisciplined.  Speak too slow, and the audience gets bored.  Speak at the same pace throughout the presentation, and we lose them entirely.  There must be a change of pace at specific intervals to shock the audience into attention.  We raise our voice to demonstrate excitement and passion, and we lower it to bring the audience closer to demonstrate confidentiality, as if we are sharing with them some secret – our answer to the problem. 

We can only see all this when we record our presentation, and go through it with a select group of qualified evaluators.  We need to see where we did well, and where we went wrong.  We need to hear our presentation so we can understand if we managed to convey, at specific points, the appropriate appeal to emotion, and the explicit appeal to logic.  Most importantly, the argument must convincingly appeal to self-interest. 

Finally, something we all learn in Toastmasters, is to have good evaluators, and have them evaluate the speech after each rehearsal, and then take their feedback and consider whether we can incorporate that into the presentation.  This can be the strength of the argument, or the choice of words, or the preferred method of delivery.  This group of evaluators must be diverse, to stimulate the intended demographic. 

There is no mystery to delivering a great business presentation.  There is a process, and there is a lot of hard work involved in it.  A pitch done properly can be worth billions, and can move people.  It is worth the work we put in.