Quora Answer: Why Does Singapore Invest Heavily in the Military?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Why does Singapore invest so heavily in the military?  Where do they expect threats from?” 

Singapore’s defence budget is around 3.4% of GDP in 2021.  This is almost a historical low, and well down from the almost 5% in the early 2000s.  By any measure, Singapore’s defence budget is not a lot.  In terms of monetary value, Singapore’s defence budget is just under US$12 billion. 

However, if we were to compare this, in real terms, with the budgets of our neighbours, the difference is stark.  Malaysia’s defence budget for this same period, is US$3.5 billion.  Indonesia’s defence budget is US$7.5 billion.  This means Singapore’s defence spending is slightly more than both its nearest neighbours combined. 

When analysing defence budgets, we do not merely look at these numbers.  We must also consider the nature of the expenditure.  Indonesia, Malaysia, and every other nation in the region, is spending on maintaining their existing capabilities, with some left over for buying new equipment, not new technology.  There is not much left over for funding significant research and development, for maintaining strategic deterrence on regional rivals, for running live firing exercises, or even securing their own EEZ.  Much of that is wastage due to endemic corruption, and an inefficient bureaucracy. 

Singapore, in contrast, has evolved its military strategy to address a major concern: the low TFI.  This means there is greater emphasis on drone technology, automation, and efficient processes requiring less manpower expenditure.  In terms of theatre, Singapore is more than capable of winning a short conventional conflict with any regional power due to the massive qualitative and technological edge.  Instead, the concern is the growing assertiveness of China in the South China Sea, and the Andaman Sea, two ends of the Malacca Straits.  This would explain the investment in naval and air power projection into these theatres, and a defence strategy emphasising securing littoral waters.  That would explain the ADF, for example. 

Since the SAF is building from a position of strength, much of that budget goes to the acquisition and assimilation of new technologies, and developing this strategic potential.  As such, there is little scope for a direct comparison of Singapore’s defence budget with her neighbours.  Indonesia, Malaysia, and other nations are in the early stages of modernisation.  Singapore is preparing to fight a different sort of war, against a regional power, in our near abroad, if it ever came to that.