Quora Answer: With Just Artillery Strikes, Would Singapore be Gone?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Is the saying, ‘With just artillery strikes, Singapore would be gone’ true?”

Whoever came up with this nonsense does not understand how artillery works.  When it comes to artillery there are two places where artillery pieces can be placed to bombard the main island of Singapore, known as Pulau Ujung.  They are Johor, and Batam, in the Riau Islands.  The distance from Batam is just over 30 km.  Johor is separated by the narrow Johor Straits.

Now, we consider the possible belligerents.  Malaysia has less than 300 pieces of artillery, with 50 Astros MLRS from Brazil, which is unguided.  Malaysia does not make its own ammunition, and they have to import.  Because their artillery pieces come from places as diverse as Brazil, South Africa, the US, and Italy, logistics supply chain is a major problem.  Indonesia has over 500 pieces of artillery.  However, less than 100 of them can hit Singapore from Batam, including, ironically, the Singapore-manufactured FH-200.  Indonesia fields the same Astros MLRS as Malaysia.

Considering the size of Singapore, how densely built up it is, and the fact that all infrastructure is deliberately overbuilt, and reinforced, one artillery barrage is definitely not enough to do more than inconvenience the country, and cause minor civilian casualties.  From a tactical perspective, it would be impossible for either nation to gather their artillery within firing distance, and not be noticed by Singapore’s military intelligence.  Neither nation is known for subtlety, being geared more for defensive policing action, in the case of the MAF; or to fight provincial insurgencies, in the case of TNI.  Both armed forces do not emphasise a doctrine of confronting a near peer or better adversary.  Singapore is technologically superior.

In contrast, Singapore has four battalions of artillery.  They field superior, modern pieces from howitzers to GPS-guided MLRS.  If Singapore is in range of their artillery, their artillery is definitely in range of Singapore’s.  We must also consider that unlike Indonesia or Malaysia, Singapore has invested heavily in tracking technology for accurate counter battery fire.  The Singapore artillery formations also have regular drills, and Singapore manufactures its own pieces and ammunition, meaning that they have no supply chain complications.  All of Singapore’s command and control elements are in hardened bunkers, or underground complexes, with redundancy.  Singapore is also backed with the strongest air force and navy in Southeast Asia.  Finally, Singapore possesses the Iron Dome II.

In terms of military doctrine, due to Singapore’s first strike policy due to the lack of strategic depth, Singapore is not going to wait for these artillery formations to fire on Singapore before retaliating.  Once the hostile intent of the deployment is verified, the SAF would attack first, and ask forgiveness later.