AIA Toastmasters Club’s Speech Evaluation & Table Topics Contest, 11th August 2022

AIA Toastmasters held its speech evaluation and table topics contest on the 11th of August 2022, drawing a healthy crowd of around fifty people.  Attendance within the club itself ran lower than usual, given the meeting fell during convention season with many members overseas, but a strong contingent from Tampines Changkat Toastmasters, the club’s de facto sister club, alongside considerable support from friends across District 80, filled the gap comfortably.

The Appointment Holders

Amos Yio served as Contest Chair.  Eric Tan served as Contest Toastmaster.  Tay Tiam Theang, DTM, served as Chief Judge.  Yuniati served as Test Speaker.  Delton Teo and Loh Hao Yi served as Tally Counters.  Clara Tan, DTM, and Li Shan Shan, DTM, served as Timers.  Chng Pia Kim and Chia Hong Loon served as Sergeants-at-Arms.  Ariel Wu served as Photographer.  Rominia Leonard served as Event Creative Director.

The Contestants

The contestants across both contests were Eric Tan, DTM, Kevin Lim, Linda Lee, Rominia Leonard, Shirley Chia, and I.

The Test Speech

Yuniatu, delivering her first speech outside her own club, spoke on our invisible bag, filled with the cares of the world, and the need to put that bag down.  She told the story of a classmate whose poverty and ill-health went unrecognised until his funeral forced the realisation, a speech carrying genuine pain, a shared experience of loss, and the epiphany that produced it.  Acquitting herself this well on unfamiliar ground, in front of an audience larger than her own club, is not a modest achievement.

I will be honest; I fell asleep during the test speech and did not hear it.  I got the gist of it from the other contestants, especially Eric Tan, DTM, and reconstructed this after the contest.

Veterans and Newer Members, Side by Side

Eric Tan, DTM, and Linda Lee are contest veterans, and both set a sterling example for newer members competing for the first or second time: Rominia Leonard in her first contest, Shirley Chia, and Kevin Lim in their second.  They have made the club proud.

Every club appointment holder was organising a contest for the first time.  Amos Yio put together a tight, well-run programme, with clear mentorship from Chng Pia Kim, who also serves as Club Secretary and Division Administration Manager.  One of the Sergeants-at-Arms, Chia Hong Loon, had joined the club only a few days before taking on the role, which says something more flattering about the club's onboarding than most organisations manage in their first month with a new hire.

The Results

Speech Evaluation Contest:

Winner, Eric Tan, DTM; First Runner-Up, Terence Nunis, DTM; Second Runner-Up, Linda Lee.

Table Topics Contest:

Winner, Eric Tan, DTM; First Runner-Up, Terence Nunis, DTM; Second Runner-Up, Kevin Lim.

The winners and runners-up will represent the club at the Area contest.  I should note I was an undeserving winner.  I fell asleep during the test speech because I was tired after a long night.  I went up on stage and winged my evaluation, talking about connecting to the audience or some nonsense because I had no idea what Yuniati said.  That worked.

---

Terence Nunis, DTM | Division Advisor, District 80 Division M | Club Advisor, AIA Toastmasters | Past President & Founder, Awesome Toastmasters

AIA Toastmasters Club’s First NFNF of the Term, 28th July 2022: When Three Speeches Turn into One Theme by Accident

On 28^th July 2022, AIA Toastmasters held its first NFNF meeting for the term.  Linda Lee served as Toastmaster of the Day.  Sandra Phua served as Table Topics Master.  Amos Yio Zhi Yan served as Ah Counter.  Rominia Leonard served as Creative Director of the Day.  Ariel Wu served as Photographer.  Eric Tan, Maria Abraham, and Eileen Chan delivered the speeches.  Frances Goh, Landly Sudjana, and I served as Project Evaluators.  Eric Tan, DTM, delivered the workshop.

Three Speeches, One Accidental Theme

Three speakers, without coordinating beforehand, all spoke about family.  Eric Tan spoke about his struggles with gambling when he was much younger, and how, with the support of family and friends, he overcame it, an emotionally difficult account of psychological turmoil met by the eventual triumph of family support.  That account is not merely a personal victory.  Research on gambling recovery estimates that only around 8% of people meeting the criteria for compulsive gambling ever seek formal treatment at all, and roughly one-third of those who do achieve long-term recovery, with family involvement consistently identified as a factor that meaningfully improves the odds.  Standing up and naming that struggle in front of a room, rather than carrying it privately, is itself a documented act of the kind that improves outcomes, not merely a brave anecdote.

Maria Abraham gave an amusing account of negotiating with her father about getting married when she was still young, a paradigm shift on the assigned project, Negotiate the Best Outcome.  Eileen Chan offered another perspective on the theme of dealing with addiction, this time as the spouse, speaking on the values of co-parenting and how to approach it properly when a family has already been tested by exactly the struggle Eric Tan described from the other side of it.

Part of speaking is having the courage to share pieces of ourselves, so that we can connect to the audience.  We are all part of that river of humanity, making its way through the canyons of time, until we meet that ocean of humanity.  It is our celebration of triumph, our commemoration of loss, and our understanding that we are all part of something greater than ourselves.

The Workshop

Eric Tan, DTM, gave a short workshop on evaluation ahead of the club’s Speech Evaluation and Table Topics contests, scheduled for 11^th August.  His workshop, “Evaluate to Elevate,” covered the intent of an evaluation and its application both within a Toastmasters context and a professional one, with twenty minutes of tips, concepts, and advice delivered by a serial contest winner for speech evaluation at club, Area, and Division level, who has also represented the club at District level.

Attendance and Celebrations

Attendance exceeded 20 despite the meeting running as an afternoon lunch event, with three non-Toastmaster guests present.  One has since joined the club.  The other two remain in process.  The club also marked birthdays for members born this month: Cindy Gan, Heny Chen, and Shirley Chia.

The Results

Best Project Speaker went to Maria Abraham.  Best Project Evaluator went to me.  Best Table Topics Speaker went to Reuel Sim.

---

Terence Nunis, DTM | Division Advisor, District 80 Division M | Club Advisor, AIA Toastmasters | Past President & Founder, Awesome Toastmasters

Economic Insights for July 2022: A Record Worth Checking against What Happened

The following were the economic insights for July 2022.  Headline inflation ticked up across most countries in May.  Central banks were aggressively raising key interest rates to bring it under control.  A strong market majority expected the Federal Reserve to raise rates by as much as 75 basis points at its next meeting, reaching neutral levels near 2.50 per cent by end-July, and possibly above neutral, near 3.75 per cent, by end-2023.

The European Central Bank hinted at a roughly 200 basis point increase in policy rates by year-end.  Broad monetary tightening, paired with tighter fiscal policy, was fuelling fears of recession within twelve to eighteen months.  The expectation at the time was that central banks would soften once rates reached restrictive territory, reducing the odds of a severe downturn.

China was Still the Outlier

China showed signs of improvement in June, with a strong pickup in services and construction as Covid restrictions eased.  China remained an outlier against a world of surging inflation, still able to pursue selective monetary and fiscal easing while everyone else tightened.

Asset allocation remained the largest driver of portfolio outcomes amid volatile markets.  Bond yields had risen sharply.  Most asset prices had fallen.  US Treasury yields sat at levels not seen in over a decade, and major funds had already dialled equities down to a small underweight, holding a moderate cash position as dry powder against a rising recession risk.

The expectation was for equities to weaken further as earnings forecasts fell under inflationary pressure, with valuations unlikely to expand during a slowdown.  A moderate overweight to Asia ex-Japan equities was recommended, driven primarily by China’s relatively positive trajectory, still trading at attractive valuations even after its recent rise.

Credit and Rates, as They Stood

Investment-grade credit spreads had widened meaningfully year to date, though modestly against their own historical range, given a gentle default and downgrade cycle.  Shorter duration was advised, positioning for further hawkish surprises from the Federal Reserve.  Asian credit was preferred over US credit, expected to hold up better despite a narrower spread premium.

The Federal Reserve’s pivot toward aggressive inflation fighting had already pushed bond yields up sharply.  Short rates moved faster than long rates, flattening the yield curve materially even while near-term fundamentals stayed robust.  Higher rates, more volatility, and weaker bond price performance were expected to continue over the medium horizon.

The Federal Reserve did not stop at 75 basis points once.  It delivered four consecutive 75 basis point hikes through 2022, pushing the federal funds rate past 4 per cent by year-end, beyond the 3.75 per cent ceiling this report anticipated for 2023.  The flattening yield curve this report flagged went on to invert fully, a signal that preceded banking stress the following spring, including the March 2023 collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.  China’s outlier position did not hold either.  Its own property crisis deepened through 2023 and 2024, eventually requiring the stimulus measures this report never anticipated needing.  The Asia ex-Japan overweight call aged reasonably well over the following two years, though not without volatility along the way.  A forecast this detailed, checked four years later, is a useful reminder that every position in this document was a probability, not a certainty, and the ones that held up best were the ones built on structural reasoning rather than a single quarter’s data point.

---

Terence Nunis | Executive Chairman, Equinox Zenith | Author, The 1% Playbook: The Billionaire Cheat Code

AIA’s 2022 Participating Fund Bonus: Stability You Can Rely On, Even in a Turbulent Year

This commentary is about the performance of the Participating Fund, as well as bonuses and dividends allocated to policies for the accounting period ending 31^st December 2021, which were recommended by the Appointed Actuary and approved by the AIA Board of Directors.  Annual bonuses and dividends were sent to client policies at the policy anniversary from 1^st July 2022.  Terminal bonus and dividend rates, if applicable to the policy, applied from 1^st July 2022 onwards.

Key Statistics of the Participating Fund, 2021

Bonuses and dividends declared: S$548 million.  Investment returns: 1.9% overall in Singapore Dollars, 4.0% overall in US Dollars, and 0.2% overall in Australian Dollars.  Total assets as of 31st December 2021: S$30,642 million.  Total expense ratio: 1.4%.  Total benefits paid: S$1,216 million, a substantial, ongoing return of value to policyholders regardless of short-term market noise.

Insurance claims and expenses were in line with company expectations in 2021, meaning the fund’s core operations performed precisely as planned, with no unwelcome surprises weighing on results.  Short-term fluctuations of non-investment performance, of which insurance claims and expenses are key factors, are not expected to significantly affect future bonuses.

The Year in Context

The global economy continued its spirited recovery in the first half of 2021, driven by accommodative monetary and fiscal policies designed to introduce financial liquidity and stability, limiting the social and financial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.  This was at the back of buoyant economic data as countries worked to return to normal by dialling back border restrictions and controls.  Sentiments of a complete recovery to pre-pandemic levels moderated in the latter half of 2021 as the world grappled with a resurgence of COVID-19 variants, leading to renewed restrictions.  There were pressures on global supply chains as demand rose while economies emerged stronger post-vaccination, and key manufacturing locations struggled with reduced labour productivity amid escalating input costs.  As inflation concerns flared with higher energy and raw material costs rippling through the economy, several central banks acknowledged the scale and longevity of inflationary pressures, and the US Federal Reserve declared its intention for several interest rate hikes, a stark contrast to its previous policy stance.

Global equity markets continued to climb higher in 2021 on the back of stronger economic resilience and robust corporate earnings, with the S&P 500 Index ending near record levels.  Overall, investment performance was positive in 2021, navigating uncertainty and volatility that are likely to remain a feature of markets going forward.

Why Steady Bonuses Matter More Than a Single Year’s Return

As of 31^st December 2021, the market value of total Participating Fund assets was S$30,642 million, supporting Singapore Dollar, US Dollar, and Australian Dollar plans, with an asset strategy tailored to the currency of each.  Unlike a pure investment account fully exposed to whatever the market delivers in any given twelve months, a participating policy is engineered to smooth returns across decades, precisely so a policyholder never has to absorb the full force of a single volatile year, or watch bonuses evaporate the moment markets wobble.  AIA tries to provide stable returns over the life of a participating policy by adopting the smoothing concept, spreading profits and losses across the life of clients’ plans.  If Participating Fund performance is particularly strong in one year, a portion of the earnings may be held back specifically to maintain bonuses in years when performance is weaker, protecting policyholders through the kind of turbulence 2021 and early 2022 delivered.

Facing 2022 with Discipline, Not Retreat

2021 was a challenging year filled with momentous events carrying global repercussions.  These headwinds persisted into 2022, with the Russia-Ukraine conflict spiralling in the first quarter, adding further pressure to a fragile global recovery, generating an adverse supply shock for energy, agriculture, and fertilisers, and raising the risk of further inflationary consequences.  AIA’s response to that environment was not retreat.  It was to increase bonus rates for some policies while holding others steady, focusing on quality assets with durable structural growth drivers, strengthening portfolio resilience, and working to deliver sustainable long-term investment returns across different economic regimes.

Bonuses or dividends allocated for a policy depend on the performance of the plan it belongs to, based on past and projected future investment returns, and past and projected future experience, including claims, surrenders, and expenses.  Any changes to bonus or dividend rates for a plan apply to all policies within that plan.  The Participating Fund achieves diversification across fixed income securities, listed equities, private equities, properties and property funds, with roughly 36% of the portfolio held in growth-oriented risk assets as of end-2021, and the majority held in lower-risk fixed income, a deliberate balance between long-term growth and the security policyholders signed up for.

Alignment between AIA and Its Policyholders

Based on regulatory requirements, the ratio of bonuses given to policyholders against the maximum amount AIA shareholders can receive from the Participating Fund is fixed at 9:1, for every S$9 given to policyholders, S$1 can be given to shareholders.  This means AIA’s own shareholders only benefit when policyholders do, giving the company a direct, built-in incentive to manage the fund conservatively and in policyholders’ long-term interest.  Our aim is for the long-term cost of smoothing to be broadly neutral across generations of policy owners, ensuring fairness between clients who joined decades ago and those joining today.

---

Terence Nunis | Executive Chairman, Equinox Zenith | Author, The 1% Playbook: The Billionaire Cheat Code