30 August, 2020

Quora Answer: What is Preventing the US from Blockading China Since Its Military is Unchallenged?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Given the United States military still has unchallenged dominance in the world’s oceans and skies, what is preventing the US from simply imposing a blockade on China, and destroying its resource-hungry, export-reliant manufacturing economy?

There are a lot of assumptions borne out of consuming the American jingoistic wine.  The United States has the most powerful military.  It has the most powerful air force and navy.  That is undisputed.  That is not the same as “unchallenged”.  If the Americans had an unchallenged military dominance, they would have no need for these multilateral international frameworks and treaties.

Firstly, as large, and as powerful as the US military is, it still has its limitations, much of it logistical.  The US has a large sovereign territory to defend.  In addition to that, there are its commitments to allies, overseas bases in foreign territories, and the maintenance of a reserve.

Secondly, have you considered how large China is?  China borders 14 different nations, and the vast majority of them would not appreciate American troops within their borders to enforce some ridiculous blockade.  These nations include Russia, North Korea, Pakistan, and India – all nuclear-armed.  Even if we were to consider the coast, the sheer logistics of maintaining a blockade would be horrendously expensive, and require the bulk of US naval and aerial forces.  Who is going to defend the other territorial commitments of the US?

Finally, China is not some third-rate military.  This is not some poor Central American or Middle Eastern failed state.  China is a near peer adversary, with the ability to deny tactical control of the theatre in their near abroad.  The threat of Chinese missiles in a hostile scenario means American carrier groups must stay about 300 nautical miles from the coast, well beyond the effective operational range of the carrier-based aircraft.  Otherwise, they are in danger of losing an entire carrier group.  This means a blockade is tactically impossible. 

From a strategic perspective, the US may try to impose sanctions, and an international blockade, but it will not be effective.  China is the largest economy in the world be GDP, and PPP - the US is the largest by GDP per capita.  It is a giant in the world economy.  American allies are not going to allow stupid Americans leeway to destroy their own economies, and world trade.



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