Quora Answer: What if North Korea & China were to Attack Japan?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “What if North Korea and China were to attack Japan?”

This is not going to happen.  Assuming Japan’s allies, South Korea and the US do not get involved, which is very unlikely, the Self-Defence Force is no pushover.  But we are getting ahead of ourselves.

Wars are exercises in logistics.  Campaigns are conducted based on this.  North Korea is a non-actor.  They have no means to project their military beyond their borders.  They have no functioning air force or navy.  China does not have the air force or the navy to secure the corridor to launch an invasion.  They do not have the sealift to send troops to Taiwan, 200 km away; they have no means to send a meaningful invasion force 3,000 km away.

The PLA is not structured as an offence force.  China’s military invests in area denial, which is meant to deter the USN’s carrier fleets, for example.  It is not meant for offence action over an extended theatre.  As such, they have limited air-to-air refuelling for an air force of that size, and not enough surface vessels.

Quora Answer: Would Kim Jong Un Consider an attack on ISIS-Occupied Areas?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Would Kim Jong Un consider an attack on ISIS occupied areas?”

No. That would be illogical.  Firstly, ISIS is not a threat to North Korea; it is a threat to the allies of her potential belligerents, the US and NATO. ISIS is useful in keeping their troops busy on the other end of the Asian continent, away from the North Korean border.  From a North Korean perspective, ISIS is a good thing.

Secondly, even if North Korea decided to fight ISIS for whatever reason, it does not have the means to deploy to the areas ISIS is active, which is South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa.  The country has a shortage of fuel and spare parts.  I do not expect the North Korean military to march all the way there, dragging all their equipment on sleds.