Quora Answer: Should Afghanistan Join the Eurasian Economic Union?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Should Afghanistan join the Eurasian Economic Union?”

Afghanistan is a failed state.  They do not even have a settled government.  They are not in any condition to participate in any regional or international groups, let alone join new ones.  The current government is struggling to gain international recognition, and their funds in foreign banks are frozen.  They need to sort those issues out, and iron out how they are going to rule in the face of a possible insurgency first. 

The Eurasian Economic Union is an economic union of former Soviet republics.  Afghanistan was never a Soviet republic.  The USSR did invade Afghanistan, overthrowing the rightful government, in December 1979.  Afghanistan joining the union would have political baggage, and the optics would not reflect on any Afghan government.  The idea is a non-starter.  A settled Afghan government would more likely look to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, where they already have observer status.

Quora Answer: Which Country Will Benefit Most When US Troops Leave Afghanistan?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Which country will benefit the most when the US troops are gone from Afghanistan?” 

The first country to benefit would be Afghanistan.  American involvement in Afghanistan was never about nation building.  The United States does not have a good track record in nation building after the Korean War.  They failed in Vietnam, they failed in the Middle East, they certainly failed in Afghanistan.  It may take years, but we will eventually see some semblance of central governance by the most powerful faction, provided there is no foreign interference.  I would not hold my breath.  Afghanistan is still sitting on more than a trillion dollars’ worth of untapped mineral wealth. 

The next countries to benefit would be Russia. Russia no has a border with Afghanistan, but the Central Asian republics are very much part of the Russian sphere of influence.  The US would still have a base in Uzbekistan, but that is insufficient to contend with Russian influence.  Iran would benefit, since having American troops on its Eastern and Western flank is uncomfortable, and aggressive.  Iran already faces a string of American military installations across the Shat al-Arab and Persian Gulf.  China would benefit because there is an economic vacuum to fill. 

The United States would benefit.  Afghanistan was a black hole in military expenditure.  There was little to gain in a perpetual low intensity conflict.  It detracted the US from a more important theatre – the East Pacific, where China is a rising power.  This withdrawal is about realignment of forces.  China has a border along the restive Xinjiang region.  Americans getting busy in Central Asia would not be contending with China in the South and East China Seas.

Quora Answer: Is the Taliban as Strong as It Has Ever Been, or Can They be Stopped Anytime Soon?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “The Taliban is as strong as it has ever been.  Can or will they be stopped any time soon?”

The Taliban is a name given to scattered groups with a loose affiliation to each other that have a nominal shared ideology based on the Deobandi-brand of Sunni Islam.  They have widespread support as defenders of the religion and the country against imperialist occupiers.  The US has lost control of the narrative.

Just as it is with previous American misadventures overseas, the US military is a sledgehammer good at demolishing infrastructure but totally unsuited for the process of nation building.  Killing more people simply creates recruits for the Taliban because the American policymakers do not understand the tribal nature of Afghan society.

To defeat any insurgency requires defeating the underlying ideology and reasons for it.  The very nature of the American occupation, and the perceived disrespect for Afghan traditions, whether Pashtun or otherwise, actually fuels the insurgency.  It would actually make more sense for the US to pull out completely, and hand power over to a local proxy.  This way, they save on manpower and deployment costs, and allow a client state to develop by bringing the Taliban into the power structure.  People who have a stake in the system have no reason to destroy it.  This is why the British were able to maintain an empire across the world for hundreds of years, and Americans are still pretending they are a benevolent sponsor for democracy.  Nobody except the American public buys that nonsense.