Quora Answer: If There is a Coalition War within Southeast Asia, Which Country Will Dominate the Region?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “How will the scenario be if there is a coalition war within Southeast Asia; which country will dominate the region?”

There is no viable scenario where there will be a coalition conflict within Southeast Asia.  Firstly, the nations in the region belong to vastly different cultures: from Buddhist traditions on the north to Muslim in the south, with Catholic in the northern part of the archipelago, to animist far to the east; from a western aligned Singapore and Philippines, to formerly Eastern bloc aligned Indochina, to socialist Indonesia; from constitutional monarchies, to city state, to federal governments.  There is no real unifying factor.

Secondly, whilst there are border tensions among all members, they are not significant enough to overcome the shared need for economic growth and trade.  The unifying factor of ASEAN itself is the recognition that these countries are stronger as a bloc than as individual nations.

Finally, in the event of such an unlikely conflict, most of these nations either do not have the necessary force projection, or militaries large enough to fight multi-front conflicts.  For example, Singapore has the most advanced military.  But a war with both Malaysia and Indonesia would close off both ends of the Singapore Straits, starving it of supplies.  Indonesia has a large army, but its navy and air force are inadequate to provide the lift to send those soldiers anywhere safely.  They also cannot establish naval and aerial superiority, which is necessary for an amphibious landing in force.  Malaysia is stuck between neighbours with stronger militaries.  It would quickly disintegrate as a political entity with military cohesion.  But its terrain is excellent for guerilla warfare and impossible to hold.  The Philippines would be a non-factor.  It cannot attack anywhere, and it is protected from direct attack, as an island chain nation.  Continental Southeast Asia would be a bloodbath, from Myanmar to Vietnam.  Thailand would be sandwiched in between, and squeezed south.

We have to remember that Southeast Asia straddles one of the most important trade routes in the world.  The last time Indonesia threatened to invade Malaysia, during the Konfrontasi, the US sent a carrier group to the north of the Malacca Straits, and shut that down.  The US, China, Japan and India are not going to sit quietly while the region goes mad.