Quora Answer: Do You Think It Sensible for the Hong Kong Protesters to Appeal to Donald John Trump for Help

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Do you think it is sensible for Hong Kong protesters to appeal to Donald John Trump for help?” 

The leaders of the Hong Kong protesters, such as Joshua Wong Chi Fung, have not shown themselves to be fully cognisant of what they are demanding, and the consequences.  We have to acknowledge that there are legitimate reasons for the people to be angry, and protest.  They include a lack of affordable housing, constrained economic opportunities, and low social mobility.  However, here are the five demands: withdrawal of the extradition bill, an independent probe into the use of force by police; amnesty for arrested protesters; a halt to categorising the protests as riots; and the implementation of universal suffrage.  None of these demands actually address the underlying issues.  These people are idiots. 

The Hong Kong government has bowed to demands, and withdrawn the extradition bill from parliamentary debate unconditionally.  That should have been seen as the start of negotiations.  It would have allowed both sides to save some dignity, and not put Beijing into a corner.  They could have then demanded more consultation, and taken the discussions behind closed doors so that compromises may be hammered out. 

What the protestors essentially want is de facto independence, and they are never going to get that.  Should Beijing be seen to be weak on this, it would undermine the CCP’s central authority, and create problems elsewhere.  It would also undermine Beijing’s negotiating position with the US in the midst of a trade war, since China would be viewed as vulnerable to pressure.  It will only invite more political pressure in other regions, and areas. 

These young people’s appeal to Donald John Trump undermines their cause in China proper, and has effectively precluded any form of sympathy by Chinese officials.  They have turned this into an issue of sovereignty, and national pride.  Considering China’s history with foreign powers, these people have set themselves up to fail, since no protest movement can continue without a practical end goal, and sympathy within the establishment, or a near-equal power. 

In the case of Hong Kong, there is no contending power that will interfere, since that would be contrary to their national interest.  The United States is not in a position to exert any pressure on China in any sphere.  In terms of trade and business interests, the adoption of a nationalistic, confrontational approach by the Trump administration has already precluded this.  China has more cards to play than the US in the current trade war.  In terms of politics, the US has virtually no direct foreign policy influence in China, again due to their confrontational approach to China.  The US has no viable option for military intervention in Hong Kong either.  I cannot see even an administration as stupid as a Trump presidency, risking a major regional conflict so some young people can pretend they understand “freedom”, and “democracy”. 

What is likely to happen is that the protests spiral out of control into escalating violence, until public opinion is significantly turned against them, and the authorities will start mass arrests.  The violence is destroying the city’s standing as a financial centre.  The economy is sliding into recession, businesses are closing, and people are being laid off.  This will gradually turn them against these rioters.  The Hong Kong police force will be given greater powers over the next few weeks, and people will be picked up.  The US Congress will have debates, propose sanctions, and be ultimately distracted by the impeachment proceedings.  The US is not going to meaningfully intervene.