Quora Answer: Why is the Singapore Military Weaker than Her Neighbours Despite Having a Larger Budget?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Why is the Singapore military weaker than Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia, despite having a bigger budget and cooler toys?”

In what way is the Singapore military weaker?  If your assumption is based on the various lists such as Global Power Index, these lists are essentially worthless in judging the capabilities of any military.  What they do, is give a list of the estimated manpower, the number of tanks, aircraft, and whatever else they choose to factor.  What they do not quantify is the quality, the performance, and the tactical integration of military units, and the quality of training.

For example, when we consider manpower, Singapore, due to its smaller population, is expected to have the smallest manpower base, but that it not how it works.  Due to conscription, and the reservist system, the Singapore Armed Forces has an effective manpower of just over 300,000, with a reserve pool of between 1.1 to 1.4 million men if it were in a state of total war.  This refers to the number of men who have basic military training, and can be deployed immediately to the front, with minimal training.

In contrast, Malaysia’s standing military is much smaller, which is also due to its smaller military budget.  There were abortive attempts to implement national service, but it was badly managed, and the system is not functional.  Furthermore, due to mismanagement and corruption, aside from select units, the vast majority of the Malaysian military are not trained in manoeuvre warfare, or even engage in active exercises at any unit level.

Indonesia has a massive military pool of more than a million active personnel, if we include the police and paramilitary personnel.  However, they are scattered across the archipelago engaged in what is essentially police action, and pacification.  The vast majority of them are not trained for s modern military conflict of a nation state level, and this can be seen in how they underperformed in Timor Leste, against what was essentially Australian and Singaporean units in an undeclared war for Timor Leste’s oil resources.  Indonesian generals utilise their men as a form of cheap labour, and not professional soldiers.

Thailand has a competent military, with a wealth of combat experience, stemming from fighting the Vietnam War, and in the various conflicts in Indochina thereafter, as well in undeclared military action on the Myanmar border.  Their Achilles’ heel is political interference, the rivalry with the police, and corruption.  They have struggled recently in pacifying the restive south.

Vietnam has a massive military, numbering well over a million active personnel, but they are in a demobilisation, and modernisation phase.  Just like Indonesia and Thailand, due to the size of the budget, the per capita spend per soldier is inadequate to ensure that they are fully equipped to fight a modern war.  This lack of funds also means that they do not have the means for military exercises of the scale and frequency required to bring many units to combat effectiveness.

In terms of aircraft, Singapore has, far and away, the largest modern air force in the region.  They also have the pool of pilots, and the logistics, to keep an air campaign going on for several weeks.  Thailand is the only other nation in the region with over the horizon interdiction.  Singapore is also the only air force in Southeast Asia with an established air-to-air refueling capability, extending the operational range of their combat aircraft.  The only regional nations that can do that is Australia.  Singapore’s real strength, however, is in its airborne early warning, and satellite targeting system.  Aside from this, Singapore is actively amassing a massive drone fleet.

In terms of naval power, whilst Singapore has a smaller number of surface vessels, and submarines, it has the most modern.  The RSN fields the only stealth frigates in the region, with the capability of providing a significant anti-aircraft envelope around the fleet, allowing for force projection beyond the horizon.  With the impending acquisition of the F-35 IIs, and the JMMS, Singapore has a carrier fleet in all but name.

In terms of overall military, Singapore has the most modern force, with a special emphasis on force multipliers, and team warfare, meaning that all branches of the military, and the civilian defence structure, function as an integrated unit.  The country has the money to invest in fighting the next war, and the R&D capability to develop the indigenous capability to support the military.  This is while its neighbours are still in an extended modernisation phase.

For example, Indonesia spent billions acquiring the old East German Navy, with little consideration for the fact that a surface fleet built for the Baltic and North Atlantic waters, is unsuitable for tropical waters.  The result is that while the numbers look impressive, these ships were floating scrap metal by the time they arrived.

For example, Vietnam had, at one time, over a thousand combat aircraft, on paper.  However, due to a lack of spare parts, maintenance personnel, pilots, and even a proper integrated command structure, most of them were not airworthy, let alone combat effective.

Another consideration is not just the numbers, but whether these countries have the ability to deploy their manpower and weapons in theatre.  Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam lack the lift capability, both air and sea, to bring their military to bear effectively.  Vietnam is a land-based military, with a lot of old tanks and APCs, but no adequate anti-air envelope.  Indonesia is based on an archipelago, but they do not have enough ships to move that massive number of men and supplies in a reasonable window to take decisive military action anywhere but at the Kalimantan border.  They do not even have the naval superiority to protect their convoys.

Strictly from a military perspective, none of these countries are a serious military threat to Singapore.  Such is the integrated nature of their economies, and the framework of ASEAN, no one has any reason to resort to war.  For countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia, they need a stronger military to project some sort of military presence to deter Chinese claims in the South China Sea.  At the moment, they are woefully outgunned, even collectively.