Quora Answer: If Southeast Asia Decided They Did Not Want Chinese Hegemony, and Decided to Fight, Who Would Take the Lead?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “If Southeast Asia decided they did not want China to lead their region, and decided to fight, who would lead the charge, and could they be successful?”

The question is based on a false assumption.  China is a regional power, but it certainly does not “lead” Southeast Asia.  China has some economic influence in certain nations, particularly in Laos, Cambodia, and to some extent, Myanmar.  But it does not have enough regional clout to influence foreign policy or enforce a Sinosphere.

Except for Papua New Guinea and Timor Leste, who are observer members, every other nation in Southeast Asia is part of ASEAN, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.  They negotiate trade treaties as a bloc, and have chosen to be non-aligned, even at the height of the Cold War.  ASEAN has been careful to balance the influence of one power with another.

As of late, China is pushing into the region as part of the Belt & Road Initiative, and they have been able to buy some influence in places such as Malaysia.  Overall, however, there has been regional pushback due to internal socioeconomic considerations, and tensions in the South China Sea over overlapping claims.

Whilst China is viewed as a valuable dialogue partner, and a balancing force, it is not fully trusted. Southeast Asia welcomes China’s influx of investments into the region, but are cautious enough to balance it with the influence of India, the US, and Australia as dialogue partners in initiatives such as the ASEAN Regional Forum.  The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) was especially formulated to exclude China, and contain its influence.