27 July, 2026

Toastmasters Speech Evaluations: Dissecting the Message

George Bernard Shaw, the Irish playwright and social activist, allegedly observed that the United States and Great Britain are two countries separated by a common language.  The same trap awaits any Toastmasters programme that skips its own vocabulary.  An evaluation is a judgement, an assessment.  In this context, it concerns a speech delivered.  The word itself traces to the mid-nineteenth century, from the French “évaluer”, a portmanteau built from the Latin “ex-”, meaning “out,” and the Old French “value”.  It means, quite literally, to draw the value out of something.  That etymology is not decoration.  It is the entire job description.

The Purpose of Evaluation

Project evaluation serves two functions, and most people only remember the first.  The obvious one is technical: assessing a speech’s structure, its points of acclamation, its points for improvement.  The second function is the actual reason Toastmasters exists in the first place.  The evaluator must ensure there is a next speech, and another after that.  He must encourage, educate, and inspire the speaker.  An evaluation that fails to accomplish this has failed, regardless of how technically accurate its criticism was.

What an Evaluator Does Not Do

Evaluators overstep their role constantly, and the mistakes are not confined to beginners.  Senior Toastmasters, ironically, commit several of these errors more often than newcomers, having grown comfortable enough to forget the boundaries of the job.

Recounting the speech is the first and most obvious error.  The audience already heard it.  Re-enacting or repeating the project speech entertains nobody and helps the speaker even less.

Duplicating the roles of the language evaluator and the ah counter is the second.  The language evaluator addresses grammar, morphology, and rhetorical devices, not the structure of the speech itself.  The ah counter tracks pauses and filler words, and a competent one explains where and why they occurred so the speaker can correct them.  Neither role belongs to the project evaluator, and folding their work into his own is redundant, not thorough.

Becoming personally involved in the speech is the third, and it afflicts senior Toastmasters and Distinguished Toastmasters with particular regularity.  The audience exists to be moved emotionally by the speaker.  The evaluator exists to notice that movement without being consumed by it.  Just as the speaker adopts a speaker persona, the evaluator must adopt an evaluator persona, remaining neutral, above the emotional current of the room.  An evaluator swayed by pathos cannot honestly assess whether the pathos actually worked.

Making the evaluation about oneself is the fourth, and perhaps the most self-indulgent.  Bringing knowledge to an evaluation is necessary.  Bringing the baggage of personal experience is not.  Even where the evaluator has walked the same road, eaten the same food, met the same people described in the speech, the story belongs to the speaker.  It is his hero’s journey, not an invitation for the evaluator to reminisce about his own.

The Structure of an Effective Speech

Evaluating a speech properly requires understanding what a good speech actually is.  A good speech is a complete journey.  It opens with a statement, sometimes framed as a rhetorical question.  It expands on that statement, carries the audience through development, and argues a cogent, coherent position designed to sway them toward it.  It then returns home, circling back to the opening statement, now transformed into a call to action, propelling the audience to continue the hero’s journey on their own terms.

Depending on the audience and material, the speech must balance logos, pathos, and ethos.  The speaker wears the mantle of the speaker persona, and his task is convincing the audience that he channels their own thoughts, hopes, and fears back at them.  That is what the evaluator is listening for.

Coherency

The first thing to assess is the logic of the argument, its coherency.  An incoherent speech loses the audience, and the spell breaks.  The evaluator’s job is identifying exactly where that incoherency occurred and addressing it directly.  Where the speech is cogent and contextual, the evaluator must say so, and explain why, because good work can always become better work, and both directions deserve equal attention.

Values

Next comes the ethical dimension of the hero’s journey: whether the speaker’s actions align with the story and the character he has presented.  A disconnect between stated belief and demonstrated action is the evaluator’s responsibility to flag.  Alignment deserves the same attention, highlighted specifically to reinforce what the speaker is already doing correctly.  There is always a reason people do what they do, and become who they become.  The evaluator’s task is understanding that reason well enough to name it.

The Emotional Rollercoaster

People are, ultimately, creatures of feeling, prisoners of their own history, their fears, their melancholy, their hatreds, their loves, their hopes.  Every listener searches for themselves inside every story told.  The evaluator’s job is noticing where the delivery and the story align, and where they diverge, and naming both honestly.

“Vocal Variety”

Few phrases in Toastmasters have been reduced to meaningless filler as thoroughly as “vocal variety.”  What does it actually mean?  How does it affect the speech in question?  Which direction, specifically, should the speaker move toward?  A speech is not a play.  It is not a re-enactment of a life event staged for dramatic effect.  It is a recounting of an event, carrying a message and an intent.  Nobody is performing Shakespeare in the Park.  Any recommendation involving vocal variety must be quantifiable and measurable, or it collapses into cliché, offering the speaker nothing he can actually act on.

“Use the Stage”

The instruction to “use the stage” suffers the identical fate.  Not every speech requires movement, and treating stage movement as a universal virtue ignores context entirely.  A speaker delivering remarks in the capacity of a public officeholder or policymaker should not be wandering the stage.  He is the focal point of the room, and his task is capturing that attention and holding it without dilution.  Movement, in that context, breaks the gravitas the moment demands.  At its worst, it signals indecision, incredulity, even a lack of credibility, precisely the opposite of what the speaker is trying to project.

Three Points, or You Are Nagging

The evaluation itself begins by addressing the speaker directly.  For the duration of that evaluation, he is the centre of the room, and the evaluator’s own presence becomes secondary to his hero’s journey.  My own preference runs to three points of acclamation and three points for improvement, no more.  There is frequently more worth saying, and resisting the urge to say all of it is the entire discipline.  Detailed analysis belongs to a mentor, working privately and at length.  The evaluator’s role is highlighting the good and the bad clearly enough for the whole room to learn from it, not producing an exhaustive breakdown nobody in the audience has the capacity to absorb in one sitting.  Exceed three points, and the lesson goes over everyone’s head, or worse, demoralises the speaker entirely.

What to Avoid

Newer evaluators frequently apologise for their own feedback.  This is a mistake.  Apologising for an honest assessment diminishes both the evaluator’s credibility and his own confidence, and the words a person hears himself say shape him as much as they shape his audience.

No evaluator should ever claim a speech was perfect.  That is a lie, and everyone in the room knows it.  No such speech exists.  However strong a speech is, another point of improvement is always available.

Some evaluators swing to the opposite extreme, denigrating the speaker outright.  This is equally wrong.  Nobody begins as a finished speaker.  That is the entire reason project speeches and evaluations exist in the first place.  Being trusted to evaluate someone’s hero’s journey is a privilege, not a licence to tear it down.

Summarising

Every evaluation must close with a statement of broad intent, one that inspires the speaker toward the next speech rather than away from public speaking altogether.  Watch for breadth versus depth, the credibility of the story, the veracity of sources and quotations, and the transition between points.  A credible speech rests on verified facts and properly attributed quotes.  I am particular, deliberately so, about quotation attribution and scientific accuracy.  Far too many speeches lean on cliché built from misconception, outright fabrication, or superstition.  A good speech educates.  It does not spread misinformation dressed up as inspiration.

Beating the Clock

Time management follows its own discipline.  A speech evaluation runs roughly three minutes for a reason.  Psychologically, tolerance for sustained criticism is limited, which makes diplomacy in delivery an art in itself, one that must still elevate and inspire the speaker rather than simply cushion the blow.  By the green light, the evaluator should have covered every point of acclamation and begun the recommendations.  By the yellow light, he should be transitioning toward the summary.  By the red light, that summary should already be underway.  Thirty seconds remains more than sufficient to close.

In Closing

Speech evaluations form one half of the Toastmasters journey, and a genuinely capable Toastmaster is proficient in both halves of effective communication: the ability to speak, honed through project speeches, and the ability to understand, honed through project evaluations.  Neglect either half, and the whole discipline remains unfinished.


Terence Nunis, DTM | Division Advisor, District 80 Division M | Club Advisor, AIA Toastmasters | Past President & Founder, Awesome Toastmasters



Quora Answer: What Does China, Japan, Et Al Dumping US Treasury Bonds s Say about the Future of the US Currency & Economic Outlook?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “China, Japan, et al. have recently been dumping a lot of US Treasury bonds.  What does this say about the future of the US currency and economic outlook?

Foreign central banks sold US$138.4 billion in Treasuries in March 2026 alone.  Japan led the exit at US$47.7 billion; China followed at US$41 billion, with Luxembourg, Taiwan, Saudi Arabia, India, Canada, and the United Arab Emirates all selling too.  China’s holdings fell to US$652.3 billion, the lowest level since September 2008, an eighteen-year low.  Overall foreign holdings dropped from US$9.49 trillion in February to US$9.25 trillion in March.  Read the headlines, and this looks like the opening chapter of dollar collapse.  When we read the actual mechanism behind the numbers, the story is more mundane, considerably more revealing, and a great deal less flattering to the people currently shouting about it on financial television.

Why They Sold, & It was Not Ideology

This was not strategic de-dollarisation.  It was currency intervention, forced on central banks by the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict.  Crude oil prices surged as the war broke out, and the yen and other Asian currencies tumbled in response.  The Bank of Japan intervened in currency markets in late March and early April 2026, after the yen weakened past the politically sensitive 160 level against the dollar, a threshold Tokyo has treated as a red line since the currency last breached it in 2024.  Surging oil import costs widened Japan’s current account at exactly the wrong moment, and Japan, as one of the most energy-import-dependent economies among the major powers, had no realistic alternative but to sell dollar assets to fund yen support.  Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC, summarised the mechanism without ambiguity: exchange market intervention to support local currencies forced central banks to sell part of their dollar-denominated holdings.  That is defence, not defiance.

A Pattern with Precedent

This is not the first time global central banks have been forced into exactly this position, and the historical parallel is instructive.  During the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, Thailand’s central bank spent down its foreign reserves defending the baht’s peg to the dollar before finally floating the currency on 2 July 1997, triggering a regional contagion that swept through Indonesia, South Korea, and Malaysia within months.  Central banks across the region learned then, at enormous cost, that defending a currency against a genuine shock requires burning through dollar reserves, not hoarding them for symbolic effect.  The 2013 “Taper Tantrum,” triggered when then Federal Reserve Chair Ben Shalom Bernanke merely signalled the possibility of reducing asset purchases, produced a similar scramble across emerging markets as capital fled and currencies buckled.  March 2026 is simply the latest entry in a well-established pattern: an external shock hits, a currency wobbles, and the central bank sells dollar assets to stabilise it.  Nobody called Thailand’s 1997 reserve drawdown “de-baht-isation.”  Calling March 2026’s intervention “de-dollarisation” applies the same logical error, dressed up for a modern audience.

The Bond Market Felt the Pain Regardless

None of this was painless for holders of Treasuries generally.  Treasuries came under significant pressure as the Middle East conflict stoked inflation fears, forcing investors to demand higher compensation for holding US government debt.  Foreign investors logged a US$142.1 billion valuation loss on long-term Treasury holdings in March alone, on top of the outright selling.  Yields climbing under geopolitical stress is a genuine market event.  It is simply not the same event as strategic abandonment of the dollar as a reserve asset, and conflating the two produces bad analysis and, for anyone trading on the panic, potentially expensive decisions.

The Number That Matters, & Nobody is Reporting It

Here is the detail that undercuts the entire panic narrative, and it rarely makes it past the headline.  Total foreign holdings of Treasuries rose from US$7.7 trillion in December 2021 to approximately US$9.2 trillion in December 2025, an increase of US$1.5 trillion over four years, encompassing multiple periods of supposed “de-dollarisation” panic along the way.  In March 2026 itself, the very month everyone is citing as evidence of flight from the dollar, net foreign private inflows into long-term US securities reached US$162.1 billion, comfortably outweighing the US$14.9 billion in net official-sector selling.  The overall net TIC inflow for the month, combining long-term securities, short-term instruments, and banking flows, came to a positive US$150.7 billion.  Central banks retreated for a month under duress from an oil shock.  Private capital, the money with no political intervention mandate attached to it, kept buying anyway, in considerably larger size.

The Expert Who Actually Checked the Data

Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and one of the most rigorous trackers of Chinese reserve behaviour, has directly challenged the popular assumption that China is engaged in deliberate, strategic dollar diversification.  He notes that China has not disclosed the currency composition of its reserves since 2020, which makes confident claims about its intentions inherently speculative.  What evidence does exist suggests China’s currency composition has not shifted dramatically, partly because the dollar’s share of its reserves was already structurally low, around 55%, and further underweighting the dollar means sacrificing yield for no clear strategic gain.  He is similarly sceptical that the 2022 freezing of Russian reserves triggered a wholesale Chinese reserve rebalancing, noting the increased bid for gold from the People’s Bank of China has been, by China’s own disclosed data, marginal rather than transformative.  Setser’s broader point deserves repeating: official Treasury data structurally undercounts China’s actual footprint in US debt markets, because a considerable share of Chinese dollar exposure sits inside custodial accounts, swaps, and funding arrangements that never appear cleanly labelled “China” in the published figures.  The headline number understates China’s real exposure, even as commentators use that same understated figure to declare that China is fleeing the asset class entirely.

Where the Genuine De-Dollarisation Story Sits

The real structural story is slower, considerably less photogenic, and impossible to compress into a single dramatic month.  The dollar’s share of global reserves has fallen from a peak above 70% in 2000 and 2001 to 56.77% by the fourth quarter of 2025, according to IMF Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves data.  Central bank gold purchases have exceeded 1,000 tonnes annually since 2022, more than double the 400 to 500-tonne pre-2022 norm, according to World Gold Council figures. The reason traces back to a single, well-documented event.  In February 2022, the United States, coordinating with the European Union, United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan, froze approximately US$300 billion of Russia’s central bank reserves in response to the invasion of Ukraine.  Every non-aligned central bank on the planet absorbed the identical lesson simultaneously: dollar and euro reserves held inside someone else’s financial system can be rendered inaccessible by a political decision, with no court proceeding and no warning.  That is genuine, durable de-dollarisation, driven by a documented act of financial statecraft rather than a currency intervention triggered by an oil shock.  It has been building quietly for four years.  It has nothing to do with what Japan and China did to their Treasury holdings in March 2026.

The Verdict

Conflating a single, crisis-driven month of central bank selling with a structural loss of dollar privilege is lazy analysis dressed up as geopolitical insight.  The dollar’s genuine vulnerability is not one volatile month of intervention.  It is the decade-long, deliberate diversification into gold and an expanding tail of smaller currencies, driven by the entirely rational fear that Washington will weaponise the dollar system again the next time it decides a foreign government has misbehaved.  China and Japan did not sell Treasuries in March 2026 because they have lost faith in America.  They sold because an oil shock hit their currencies, leaving them no alternative, just as Thailand had none in 1997.  Private capital, watching the same events with none of the political obligation to intervene, bought the dip regardless.  If dollar privilege is ending, it will not end with a headline this dramatic.  It will end the way Setser’s own data suggests it is actually happening: quietly, gradually, and largely off the page that everyone else is reading.


Terence Nunis | Executive Chairman, Equinox Zenith | Author, The 1% Playbook: The Billionaire Cheat Code



25 July, 2026

Quora Answer: Does De-Dollarisation Imply a Shift towards a Multipolar Currency System?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Does the concept of de-dollarisation imply a shift towards a multipolar currency system with multiple reserve currencies?

Yes, though not in the way most commentary frames it.  The popular version of this story casts it as a two-horse race, the dollar losing ground directly to the Chinese renminbi.  The data says otherwise, and the actual mechanism is more interesting, and considerably more inconvenient for Beijing, than the popular version admits.

According to the International Monetary Fund’s Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves, the US dollar’s share of global reserves fell to 56.77% in the fourth quarter of 2025, down from 56.93% the prior quarter, out of total global reserves reaching US$13.14 trillion.  The euro held 20.25%, the Japanese yen 5.56%, sterling 4.64%, the Canadian dollar 2.49%, the Australian dollar 2.01%, and the Swiss franc a mere 0.19%.  The Chinese renminbi, the currency most commonly cited as the dollar’s heir apparent, held just 1.95%.

The residual “other currencies” category, covering reserve holdings not individually identified anywhere in the COFER framework, reached 6.13% in the fourth quarter of 2025, up from 5.61% the previous quarter, and more than double what it was in 2021.  Central banks are not consolidating their diversification into one clean alternative.  They are scattering it across an expanding tail of smaller currencies, likely including the Singapore dollar, the South Korean won, and various Nordic currencies, none individually significant enough to warrant its own COFER line item, but collectively now larger than the renminbi’s entire disclosed share.  That is the actual signature of multipolarity.  Not one challenger rising to meet the dollar.  Dozens of smaller holdings quietly growing in the shadows of a category literally labelled “other.”

Why the Renminbi is Not the Beneficiary Bulls Expect

The renminbi’s stagnation at under 2% of global reserves, despite a decade of Beijing actively promoting its internationalisation, is not an accident of insufficient marketing.  It is a direct consequence of China’s continued capital account controls, which prevent the renminbi from being freely convertible in the way a genuine reserve currency requires.  Central banks diversifying away from the dollar are choosing convertible, rule-of-law-anchored alternatives such as the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar, and a widening basket of smaller currencies, because those currencies do not carry the political risk premium a capital-controlled renminbi does.  Beijing built the infrastructure, the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System among it, but infrastructure alone has not overcome the trust deficit inherent in a currency Beijing itself refuses to let float freely.

In February 2022, the United States, coordinating with the European Union, United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan, froze approximately US$300 billion of Russia’s central bank reserves in response to the invasion of Ukraine.  Every non-aligned central bank on the planet absorbed the same lesson simultaneously: concentration in any single reserve currency, or bloc of allied currencies, creates a single point of political failure.  The logical response to that lesson is not to swap one concentration risk, the dollar, for another, the renminbi.  It is to disperse holdings widely enough that no single government’s political decision can freeze a meaningful share of a nation’s reserves at once.  Central bank gold purchases, which more than doubled after 2022 to over 1,000 tonnes annually according to World Gold Council data, follow the identical logic.  Gold cannot be frozen by anyone’s central bank.  Neither, in practical terms, can a reserve position scattered across a dozen minor currencies nobody thought worth sanctioning.

The Verdict

De-dollarisation does imply a shift toward a multipolar system, but multipolar does not mean a tidy new order with two or three great reserve currencies sharing the stage.  It means fragmentation: a dollar still comfortably dominant at 56.77%, a euro holding steady around a fifth of global reserves, a yen and sterling occupying their traditional secondary tiers, a renminbi stubbornly stuck under 2% despite a decade of promotion, and an ever-growing tail of smaller currencies absorbing the overflow.  Anyone predicting a clean handover of reserve currency status from Washington to Beijing has misread the data entirely.  The world is not choosing a new hegemon.  It is quietly refusing to trust any single one of them completely, including the one everybody keeps expecting to win.


Terence Nunis | Executive Chairman, Equinox Zenith | Author, The 1% Playbook: The Billionaire Cheat Code



24 July, 2026

Business Negotiation is Warfare in a Suit

Imam Abu Hamid Muhammad ibn Muhammad al-Ghazali, the Persian philosopher and theologian, once observed that before we speak of a cup, it is important to know what a cup is.  I have always begun with definitions for the same reason.  Even when two parties share a language, misunderstanding remains entirely possible.  Everyone arrives at a conversation carrying the baggage of their own experience, viewing the exchange through a prism shaped by history, education, and whatever role they occupy in the relationship.

“Negotiation” refers here to any discussion undertaken with the intent of reaching an agreement.  The word entered English in the late fifteenth century, denoting the act of dealing with another person, derived from the Latin “negotiation”, itself from the verb “negotiari”.

“Culture” entered English somewhat later, in the mid-nineteenth century, from the Latin “cultura”, meaning tillage.  Culture was originally tied to the practices of people working the land.  Today it refers to the ideas, customs, and social behaviour of a society, encompassing its arts, its intellectual achievements, and its shared history, gathered under a specific label.  That label might be national, such as Singaporean or American.  It might be ethnic, such as Malay or Chinese.  It might be religious, such as Muslim or Christian.  The difficulty is that these lines blur constantly.  Every person carries multiple labels and identities, emphasised differently depending on context.  In that sense, almost every negotiation is, in fact, cross-cultural, whether the parties recognise it or not.

The Persona

Nobody arrives at the table as themselves.  We all wear masks, facades constructed for the occasion.  William Shakespeare wrote, in As You Like It, Act II, Scene VII:

“All the world’s a stage,

And all the men and women merely players;

They have their exits and their entrances,

And one man in his time plays many parts …”

Before reaching that table, real or virtual, every party must understand precisely which role they are playing, and which role every member of their own team is playing.  Negotiation, in most circumstances, is a team sport.  Someone plays the good cop, to a degree.  Someone else plays the bad cop, to a degree.  The team creates the impression that certain points are non-negotiable, while quietly searching for the compromise that actually matters elsewhere.  The briefing before the meeting frequently matters more than the meeting itself.

To operate effectively, a negotiator needs a clear picture of the people they represent, the people they face, and the role each plays within the wider project.  That clarity prevents overstepping, prevents the kind of mistake that diminishes credibility, and prevents inadvertently showing one’s hand.  This is chess.  This is poker.  Every move should matter.

In practice, my team builds a dossier on every significant counterparty ahead of major projects.  We construct the most complete picture available of the people we are about to negotiate with, and the people they answer to.  This includes the obvious, such as favourite child and marital stability, and the less comfortable, such as ongoing investigations and marital infidelity.  We acquire every advantage available to close the deal on favourable terms.

At the table itself, we wear what I call the speaker persona: a mask constructed from every rhetorical and psychological tool available, designed to shorten the distance between the other side and us.  Executed well, it convinces the counterparty that we sit beside them, understanding their perspective from the inside.  That is the actual power of rhetoric.

Rhetoric

The primary instrument of negotiation is rhetoric: the art of constructing a cogent, coherent argument, for or against a position, to move people.  Rhetoric is as old as civilisation itself.  The moment one person first convinced others to follow him, to believe what he said, to move together toward common action, society began, and human history commenced its long, uneven march of progress.  Anyone wishing to excel at negotiation must, by necessity, excel at speaking.

The art of rhetoric divides into three disciplines: the ability to listen carefully, the ability to discern the message beneath the words, and the ability to dissect that message and construct a response.  Negotiation should never be treated as a zero-sum contest, because reputation matters, and the other side’s network may well be worth doing business with again.

Some ruthlessness is required to secure a winning position, but that advantage must never be pressed home too brutally.  The other side must leave the table feeling they gained something, however modest.  Paradoxically, generosity that feels unearned generates suspicion rather than gratitude.  Everyone carries an ego, a measure of pride.  Excessive magnanimity, offered too freely, breeds resentment rather than goodwill, because nobody wishes to feel small.  Absolute ruthlessness is a card reserved for the moment bridges are meant to burn, for making an example of someone.  That is the domain of international diplomacy, or hostage negotiation with terrorists.  It has no place in ordinary international business.

Misconceptions

Several misconceptions about effective speaking deserve correcting outright.  The first: excellent command of language is not, in fact, required.  Effective communication requires only the ability to convey a point succinctly and simply.  Were mere facility with flowery language the actual requirement, poets and language teachers would run the world’s negotiating tables, and they emphatically do not.  Command of language, in the sense that matters here, means the ability to convey what one intends the other side to understand, and to discern accurately what the other side is conveying in return.

Mastery of grammar is similarly unnecessary.  The ability to write an essay on the morphology of words and the relationship between tenses does not make anyone a competent negotiator.  It is entirely possible to become lost in the surface meaning of a conversation while missing the message underneath entirely.

An expansive vocabulary is not required either, beyond the technical terms relevant to the subject matter at hand, whether shipping, finance, or otherwise.  The average reasonably fluent person uses between 16,000 and 20,000 words.  In a business exchange, that figure drops to roughly half, because tension pushes people toward the most familiar vocabulary, and sentences become utilitarian.  The actual skill lies in using the words the other party already uses, shortening the psychological distance between one’s own speaker persona and their listener persona.

The Stage

To paraphrase Sun Tzu, in the third chapter of The Art of War: “Know your enemy, know yourself; your victory is certain.  Know heaven, know earth; your victory is complete.”  Sun Tzu described nine varieties of ground: dispersive ground, weak ground, strategic ground, open ground, intersecting ground, serious ground, difficult ground, deadly ground, and desperate ground.  Identifying which ground one occupies is not optional.

Dispersive ground sits near home base, where soldiers, aware of a safe retreat, lack full resolve under pressure.  In negotiation, this is the opening phase, where the client one represents may fold at the first sign of resistance, absent an actual resolution.  This is addressed through briefing before the meeting, preparing the client for the other side’s feigned retreats, and pre-emptively rejecting apparent compromises that carry hidden costs.  A supplier offering a lower unit price while quietly altering payment terms is a textbook example.  Payment terms frequently affect a credit line far more than the headline price ever will.

Strategic, or contentious, ground carries value for both sides.  These are the primary points of contention, where each side seeks advantage while remaining convinced the other has also won something.  In an acquisition, the number of shares often matters less than the voting power those shares carry.  Control of a company does not require a majority stake.  Every party, every group, carries a psychological blind spot capable of exploitation.

Open ground offers both sides room to manoeuvre.  These are the open-ended contractual clauses that eventually become points of contention.  This is where rapport gets built, where small concessions accumulate into a bank of goodwill for later use.

Intersecting ground adjoins other ground, facilitating movement and communication.  Its strategic value lies not in what it contains, but in where it sits.  Real estate agents call this location, location, location.  In negotiation, it is the position that leads toward what is actually wanted.  Securing a term sometimes requires first securing the circumstances that produce it.  Consider an investment into Japan, where withholding tax runs close to 40%, and Japanese interests must hold at least 50% of any special purpose vehicle.  In such cases, structuring the investment through a trust or company elsewhere, which then loans funds to the Japanese vehicle, avoids the withholding tax entirely, because loan repayments are not subject to it.

Serious ground describes an army that has penetrated hostile territory without securing its rear, leaving it exposed to a multi-front assault or encirclement, its supply chain insecure.  In negotiation, this appears when a negotiator fixates on one issue, price above all else, while ignoring delivery schedules, payment timelines, tax liability, and currency exposure, every one of which will ultimately shape the real price paid.

Difficult ground resists manoeuvre.  A project spanning multiple stakeholders, several legal jurisdictions, and heavy political exposure qualifies.  The correct response is not to become entangled in it.  This demands considerable preparatory work: clearing contractual ambiguity, moving up the broker chain, and identifying the actual decision-makers.

Deadly ground is difficult terrain riddled with choke points.  Here, arriving early and preparing the ambush, rather than walking into one, is the only sound strategy.  Research and preparation before entering the room matter enormously.  Carrying oneself with decorum, dignity, and honesty is admirable.  Assuming the same of everyone else is foolish.  People come to the table to win.

Desperate ground is ground from which only immediate action can prevent destruction.  This ground is best avoided altogether.  When new developments, shifts in the wider world affecting price or availability, changes in legislation or management, catch a negotiator off guard mid-process, the correct response is recognition and retreat.  Returning another day beats being outmanoeuvred and losing outright.

Throughout all of this, knowing who attends the meeting matters, as does identifying who stands in a state of need and how that need might be created.  Above all, remember the question every party silently asks: what is in this for me?  Everyone wants something.  Effective negotiation appeals directly to that want.

The Performance

Three points of influence govern the performance itself: ethos, pathos, logos.  A fourth, kairos, completes the set.  Mastering all four properly is the work of a Toastmaster, which lies outside the scope of this piece.  Instead, consider the finer points that can be applied immediately.

George Bernard Shaw, the Irish playwright, observed that the United States and Great Britain are two countries separated by a common language.  The greatest negotiating challenges frequently arise with people who speak the same language as us, precisely because shared vocabulary breeds a complacency that produces expensive mistakes.  This returns directly to the earlier point about definitions.

Every conversation carries a distance between speaker and listener.  Closing that distance requires every rhetorical and psychological device available, convincing the other party that we walk in their shoes and think as they think.

Finally, people wish to be aggrandised, elevated, recognised.  The purpose of negotiation is fulfilling one’s mandate and securing the desired outcome.  Achieving that requires opening the hearts of the other side, and with them, their mouths, and occasionally, their wallets.

Further Considerations

Understanding the language a party thinks in matters, because that language shapes their thought process directly.  Some languages are more visual, others more linear.  This shapes how the negotiation itself will unfold.  Negotiations with the Japanese, or East Asians more broadly, proceed according to hierarchy, given the subtlety embedded in those languages.  The decision-maker is almost always the most senior figure present, though rarely the person one actually wants to address directly, and sometimes the reverse holds.

Power dynamics matter most visibly in a Western context, where establishing credibility demands extra time up front.  It remains impolitic to say so plainly, but post-colonial tensions still sit beneath the surface of many such meetings.  Where East Asians favour subtlety, Germanic peoples favour directness, Anglo-Saxons favour aggression, and Arabs favour fluidity of discourse.  These cultural distinctions require careful attention before anyone sits down.

Tip One: Play the Competent Fool

Negotiation, however personal it may feel, is never about ego.  It is about winning.  Being first to take charge in the room also makes one the first head offered up when blame needs distributing.  There is always someone at the table who wants to be seen as master of it.  Let him be, provided he sits on the other side, since roles on one’s own team have already been assigned.  That person will play his cards, and likely reveal considerably more than he intends.  Praise him, elevate him, and he will bloom like a flower, spilling exactly what is needed.

Claiming a position slightly lower in the hierarchy also helps, high enough to carry a say, not so high as to absorb the ultimate blame.  At an impasse, this allows an appeal to management, to a director, to a board, buying time to regroup and return with a revised strategy.  Flexibility matters.

Tip Two: Misdirect

Considerable time can be spent discussing matters that are not, in fact, the true objective, allowing the other team to prepare a position while leaving the actual target undefended.  In a recent biomass power plant project, worth US$250 million, a specific concession on the insurance coupon was the actual objective.  Over an hour was spent reviewing the finer contractual points, with full awareness that the other side faced a time constraint.  With fewer than fifteen minutes remaining, the conversation pivoted directly to the real objective, and secured it.  Time itself is a weapon.

Tip Three: The Power of Saying Less

Explicit statements of intent are sometimes necessary, but more often, saying less than required lets the other side talk themselves into a corner.  Most communication is non-verbal.  Very little of what people say is meant literally.  Allusion, allegory, and idiom saturate daily conversation, built on cultural assumptions that can work for or against a negotiator depending on whether both parties share them.

Idioms and cultural assumptions are, by nature, culture-specific.  Assuming the other side understands them, or that we understand theirs, is a mistake, particularly across cultures.  In an Anglo-Saxon context, “letting the cat out of the bag” means indiscretion, a secret revealed.  Someone unfamiliar with the idiom might reasonably assume cats are habitually kept in bags, and recoil accordingly.

Deliberately saying less exploits the same principle.  The average person cannot tolerate silence.  Silence produces discomfort, which people instinctively fill with conversation and nervous smiles.  Sustained quiet, paired with an attentive gaze, draws most people into revealing considerably more than they intended.

Tip Four: Reputation is Everything

Every person plays a part, and credibility is the sum of one’s reputation, requiring active cultivation and protection.  Eventually, reputation alone closes a deal, or reputation alone loses it.  Reputation also depends on network, on association, which is why ruthless pruning of one’s connections and careful selection of one’s team is necessary rather than optional.

Anyone lacking cultivated credibility must borrow it.  The simplest method involves anchoring a point to a quotation from a recognised authority, a worthy sound bite from a known name in the field.  Credibility can also be borrowed through association, a consideration worth weighing carefully when assembling a negotiating team.

Reputation alone occasionally swings a meeting before a word is spoken.  That effect rests on an actual body of work.  My own team carries a combined 120 years of experience, built not merely from curricula vitae, but from decades of accumulated network.  Frequently, who one knows matters more than what one knows.

Tip Five: Appeal to Self-Interest

Appeals should target self-interest, never altruism, never benevolence, never pity.  Appealing to pity, or invoking past favours, may succeed once.  It will not succeed twice.  It creates resentment through an imbalance in the power dynamic, since nobody enjoys being reminded of an obligation, however small.  People want to feel empowered, and effective negotiation cultivates precisely that feeling.  Appeals to someone’s higher self are a lottery, and no business can be run on chance.  Certainty is required, and vanity, greed, and self-interest are as certain as anything gets.

The Benjamin Franklin Effect describes a proposed psychological phenomenon, a form of cognitive dissonance, in which a person who does someone a favour becomes more inclined to think well of them.  It might seem intuitive that people do favours because they already like us.  In business, the causation frequently runs the other way: people come to like us because of the favours we induce them to perform.  The effect takes its name from Benjamin Franklin, who wrote in his autobiography, “He that has once done you a kindness will be more ready to do you another, than he whom you yourself have obliged.”  Franklin illustrated this with an account of a rival legislator in the eighteenth-century Pennsylvania legislature: “Having heard that he had in his library a certain very scarce and curious book, I wrote a note to him, expressing my desire of perusing that book, and requesting he would do me the favour of lending it to me for a few days.  He sent it immediately, and I returned it in about a week with another note, expressing my sense of the favour strongly.  When we next met in the House, he spoke to me (which he had never done before), and with great civility; and he ever after manifested a readiness to serve me on all occasions, so that we became great friends, and our friendship continued to his death.”

The same dynamic appears among smokers borrowing a light from strangers.  A shared, trivial favour produces a cognitive bias suggesting mutual liking, which explains why smoking areas host conversations between people who have never otherwise met.  In a physical meeting, this is straightforward to replicate.  I habitually ask counterparts to fetch me coffee, which is nothing more than this same principle in practice.  In an online meeting, the same effect is harder to reproduce, though small talk touching on restaurant recommendations or local logistics achieves a diminished version of it.

Tip Six: Make Everything a Group Decision

At every milestone, securing something in writing, with as many signatures and as much buy-in as possible, matters considerably.  This makes retreat costly for any side, since reputational damage follows any unilateral withdrawal.  A bad decision reached collectively cannot result in an entire management team being dismissed.  Blame, when it lands, rarely distributes evenly, but enough spreads that everyone ends up smelling roughly the same.

This is precisely why organisations hold annual general meetings and similar events: the illusion of buy-in from every major stakeholder serves not just moral authority but a form of insurance against future criticism.  Once everyone has assented, nobody can credibly claim opposition, or work at cross purposes, without risking their own credibility in the process.

The same instinct applies at the negotiating table, regardless of who sits across it.  The moment agreement is reached, document it and record it.  Pausing the conversation at each milestone, and confirming accord on that specific point, creates a waymarker for the stage that follows.

Tip Seven: The Power Behind the Throne

Considerable business intelligence goes toward identifying who actually makes the decision.  It might be the managing director.  It might be his girlfriend.  Everyone has a pressure point.  I once attended a meeting at a hotel, negotiating the sale of an entire hotel chain, still new to the business and part of the team rather than leading it.  Everyone else arrived in expensive Italian or English-cut suits, wearing ties that cost more than most people’s monthly rent.  The billionaire arrived dressed like the gardener.  That is what real power looks like.  Enough money renders convention optional.

This concept extends beyond the decision-maker himself to whoever holds his softest spot.  In one negotiation, I discerned that a client’s youngest daughter was, without question, his favourite.  Steering the conversation toward her approval secured the sale.

Tip Eight: Check the Wind before Taking a Leak

Working as a deck cadet on a container vessel, using the toilet was not always practical, particularly at the forecastle, three hundred metres from the accommodation block.  The first lesson learnt was to check which way the wind blew before relieving oneself over the side, or face the consequences directly.  The same principle applies in negotiation: understand which way the wind blows before committing to a strategy.  No plan survives first contact.

In one project, discussing a potential investment in a neighbouring country’s port development, the other side kept trying to raise the cost rather than lower it, which was immediately suspicious.  It emerged they intended to have our side bid artificially high, then split the excess with them, effectively defrauding the state.  That is not how business gets done, and we walked away from the table entirely.

On a related note, anyone can claim to be honest.  Very few claims survive genuine testing.  Everyone has a price.  Most people have never actually been tempted to the limit of theirs.  Nobody can honestly claim incorruptibility without having walked away from millions offered purely on principle.  Reputation, career, health, even life itself, can be taken by others.  Only we can sell our own souls.  The task is ensuring the price for that sale sits so high nobody can afford it.

Conclusion

Every point above converges on a single purpose: negotiation exists to create the conditions for a sale.  That “sale” is whatever outcome was set out to be achieved from the outset.  What gets sold is rarely a product or a service in the narrow sense.  It is a solution.  A genuinely good solution leaves everyone at the table satisfied, convinced they were part of something momentous, whether or not that conviction survives contact with the fine print later.


Terence Nunis | Executive Chairman, Equinox Zenith | Author, The 1% Playbook: The Billionaire Cheat Code



Quora Answer: When Will the Malaysian Ringgit be Stronger Than the Singapore Dollar?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “When will the Malaysian ringgit be stronger than the Singapore dollar?

Since the currency union between Malaysia, Singapore, and Brunei broke down in 1967, the Malaysian ringgit has never once traded stronger than the Singapore dollar.  Not for a single day.  Fifty-nine years of continuous data, and the ringgit has spent every one of them on the weaker side of the pair.  The rate today sits at roughly 3.16 ringgit to one Singapore dollar, comfortably within the range it has occupied for the better part of two decades.  When someone asks when the ringgit will finally overtake the Singapore dollar, the honest answer is: not within any timeframe worth planning around, and the reasons are structural rather than cyclical.

The Structural Gap, in Numbers

Singapore’s GDP per capita stood at $98,814 in 2025.  Malaysia’s stood at $13,125.  That is a gap of roughly 7.5 times, and even adjusting for purchasing power, the gap remains stark: $150,689 for Singapore against $38,779 for Malaysia, a factor of nearly four.  The Heritage Foundation’s Index of Economic Freedom scores Singapore at 84.4, ranked first globally.  Malaysia scores 68, ranked 51st.  These are not close numbers separated by policy tweaks.  They represent two fundamentally different institutional architectures, one built on regulatory efficiency and rule of law attracting global capital, the other still carrying the drag of policies designed for a different era entirely.

Malaysia’s New Economic Policy, introduced in 1971 and its successor frameworks since, embedded ethnic quotas and preferential allocation into corporate ownership, government contracts, and university admission, in the name of redressing historical inequality.  Whatever the original justification, the effect over five decades has been a persistent misallocation of capital and talent away from pure merit and productivity.  Malaysia’s own brain drain confirms the consequence directly.  Hundreds of thousands of Malaysians, disproportionately ethnic Chinese and Indian professionals who felt the ceiling the policy imposed on them, have relocated to Singapore, where an estimated one million Malaysians now live and work, forming one of the largest single foreign populations in the city-state.  A country that exports its most productive citizens to the neighbour it is supposedly competing against does not close a currency gap.  It widens it, year after year, one departing engineer at a time.

Bank Negara Malaysia’s Incentive

Bank Negara Malaysia has no genuine institutional interest in seeing the ringgit strengthen past the Singapore dollar, even if the structural gap above somehow closed overnight.  Malaysia’s economy remains heavily export-dependent, running on electronics, palm oil, and petroleum products sold into competitive global markets.  A stronger ringgit makes every one of those exports more expensive and less competitive the moment it appreciates meaningfully.  BNM operates a managed float, not a free float, because an uncontrolled ringgit rally would damage the export sector its own mandate is partly built to protect.

When the Asian Financial Crisis hammered regional currencies in 1997 and 1998, Tun Dr. Mahathir bin Mohamad, then Prime Minister, rejected the International Monetary Fund’s prescribed orthodoxy outright.  On 1st September 1998, Malaysia imposed capital controls and fixed the ringgit at RM3.80 to the US dollar, a rate chosen to support export competitiveness rather than to reflect market fundamentals.  The same month, his deputy, Dato’ Seri Anwar bin Ibrahim, who had pushed for IMF-style liberalisation, was sacked and subsequently prosecuted, a political rupture that still echoes through Malaysian politics today.  Mahathir’s peg held until 2005, when Malaysia finally shifted to a managed float.  The lesson from that episode has never actually left Bank Negara Malaysia’s institutional memory: currency strength is not treated as an unambiguous good.  It is treated as a variable to be managed in the service of export competitiveness, political stability, and whichever administration currently holds power.

The Conclusion

The ringgit will not become stronger than the Singapore dollar without Malaysia addressing the structural drag on productivity and capital allocation that decades of race-based economic policy have embedded into its economy, and without reversing a brain drain that keeps handing Singapore precisely the talent Malaysia cannot afford to lose.  Even if that structural reform happened, Bank Negara Malaysia’s own policy incentives run in the opposite direction, because a genuinely strong ringgit would injure the export sector the central bank has spent decades protecting.  Asking when the ringgit will overtake the Singapore dollar is, in effect, asking when Malaysia will choose structural reform over export competitiveness and political convenience simultaneously.  Fifty-nine years of data suggest that day is not on the calendar yet.


Terence Nunis | Executive Chairman, Equinox Zenith | Author, The 1% Playbook: The Billionaire Cheat Code