Quora Answer: Will the UK Forward Deploy a Royal Navy Frigate to Singapore in the Next Few Years?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Will the UK forward deploy a Royal Navy frigate to Singapore in the next few years?” 

No, that is not the conversation.  This was based on an informal proposal originally floated that the 2016 Shangri-La Dialogue, by Sir Michael Cathel Fallon, who was Secretary of State for Defence at that time.  The actual suggestions was to send a UK carrier strike group to Asia on its inaugural deployment.  This was part of their global re-posturing effort.  The UK public had just voted for Brexit, China was being more belligerent in the South China Sea and projecting force in the East Pacific, and the UK and US were secretly in the process of forming the AUKUS trilateral security arrangement with Australia. 

As of last year, the Queen Elizabeth aircraft carrier and escort ships have completed a tour of the region.  It had a complement of US Marine F-35B squadron onboard.  This was a significant show of power.  In that time, the carrier group took part is several manoeuvres and exercises with regional navies, including the Indian Navy.  As of this time, there is still a stated intent to deploy Littoral Response Group (LRG) late in 2023.  This LRG is likely to be focused on the Indian Ocean, with a refit and refueling in Sembawang Naval Base, Singapore and the UK Joint Logistics Support Base (UKJLSB) within the al-Duqm Port & Drydock of Duqm, Oman. 

As per the terms of AUKUS, it is also possible that Australian will offer basing access to facilitate regular deployments of UK nuclear attack submarines, at HMAS Stirling, Western Australia.  This is more relevant to reinstating Royal Navy submarine presence in the eastern Indian Ocean.  As of now, there are no plans for there to be a permanent base anywhere in the Indian or Pacific Ocean, let alone Singapore.  Furthermore, it is unlikely Singapore would offer that to the UK, and risk being seen as part of the American camp against China.  Singapore wants to maintain the appearance of neutrality. 

At the moment, there are two patrol vessels in the area.  They are not much for force projection, but are there more to demonstrate presence.  It is more than likely that the Royal Navy facility in Sembawang Naval Base, Singapore, will serve as the primary logistics hub.  The UK will eventually upgrade the patrol vessels to Type-31 frigates.  However, this does not constitute an actual forward deployment to Singapore.