Quora Answer: Hypothetically, Can the US Defeat a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Hypothetically, can the US beat China over Taiwan in a war scenario?” 

That really depends on what sort of war scenario you mean.  If the intent is to stop a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the US will succeed easily.  The Taiwan Strait, which separates China from the renegade province is around 160 km wide.  The Taiwanese military is of uncertain morale and is thought to lack resilience, but China still needs to secure air and naval dominance to safely send over the invasion force.  That is not possible.  Taiwan’s military is well under 200,000 active personnel.  That means China would need around 300,000 troops just to secure a beachhead and breakout. 

You cannot plan to mobilise that many troops and assets quietly.  The American will know and the Taiwanese will know.  Assets will be moved into the region, and we are likely to see up to three carrier groups, including submarines.  The US already has troops and bases in Japan, South Korea and islands in the Pacific West.  The Americans also have assets to control the Straits of Malacca, where all the oil needed to feed the war effort is going to pass.  All parties know that the US does not need to defeat the Chinese military in its entirety to end the invasion.  They simply need to make it very expensive in terms of cost and casualties.  A major defeat would seriously dampen the legitimacy of the Communist leadership, and there will be domestic consequences. 

China need only wait, and Taiwan will eventually seek a merger.  Even if they were to successfully invade Taiwan, the cost of integrating the Taiwanese economy would be astronomical and crash China’s economy.  The Chinese are not stupid.