Quora Answer: Could the Iranian Navy, Blocking the Strait of Hormuz, Choke the Global Economy?

The following is my answer to a Quora question: “Could the Iranian Navy, blocking the Strait of Hormuz, choke the global economy?  If it goes on long enough, would it invite military retaliation from other countries?”

The Straits of Hormuz is the only egress from the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean.  It is estimated that 25% of crude oil, and 60% of LNG goes through the Straits.  Iran is on the northern shore of the Straits, and it is part of its littoral waters.  As such, Iran does not have to actually block the Straits of Hormuz.  It need only threaten to, and global energy prices will spike.

Iran does have the capability of blocking off the Straits, which is not that difficult, because it is only 21 nm wide, at its narrowest.  This means that Iran can deploy mobile shore batteries, and still threaten shipping in the straits.  It does not need to deploy its naval fleet of attack craft armed with anti-ship missiles.  Iran has the largest, and most diverse, ballistic missile and anti-ship missile complement in the region, despite having the lowest per capita spend on military.  Much of its capability is indigenous due to an American lead arms embargo.

The nature of the geography means that it suits Iran’s asymmetrical warfare strategy.  Blocking the Straits will certainly invite an American military response.  However, the narrowness of the Persian Gulf means that a carrier fleet, or any element of the US Navy, cannot operate freely in those waters.  The carriers will have to launch from the Arabian Sea, which limit their effectiveness.  The US has military assets in bases around the region, and they can launch aircraft from bases as far afield as Incirlik, in Turkey, or Bagram, in Afghanistan.

The problem is this: Iran has demonstrated, whether by itself, or through proxies in the region, that it has the ability to strike at US military bases in the region, using drones, and missiles based within, or outside of Iran proper.  They may not have aerial superiority, but they are quite capable of destroying aircraft on the ground.  Iran, with Russian assistance, also has a significant air defence network, and an air campaign will be expensive, and risky.  Any attack on Iran will draw in the entire region, and that will further tank the world economy, which is still part of the Iranian objective.

That being said, this is not a card the Iranians will play lightly since China, and friendly nations, also depend on oil and gas from the region.  There will be a diplomatic backlash, and further isolation if the Iranians were belligerents.  This is a card to be played when there are no other alternatives.

In any case, both sides are not stupid.  Despite military posturing, the solution is still a political one, not a military one.  The United States establishment are under no illusions that winning the war at massive cost is not ideal, and not guaranteed.  More likely, they will be pulled into a quagmire against a nation that has a potential military of over a million men, who will fight to the death.  The intelligence community paid attention, and took notes, during the Iran-Iraq War.  The only nations that seem intent on war seem to be Saudi Arabia, and Israel, based on their own strategic calculations.  Binyamin Netanyahu needs a crisis to detract from his own political troubles.  Mohammed bin Salman is ambitious, and aggressive, but he is a hot-headed liability.  The murder of Jamal Kashoggi, and the invasion of Yemen, is ample proof of this.